Error occured during this request! Please try again later.
Every time I try to write a snapshot of Brexit and British politics, something dramatic happens and I think it would be easier nailing hummus to the wall.
Brexit has massively disrupted traditional voting patterns and may replace the Labour and Conservative duopoly of the 20th century. They received just 23 percent of the vote in the recent European elections, arguably a free hit for protest politics. But a recent poll shows these two parties, plus the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats, are each on roughly 20 percent of the vote. This could void the usual advantages enjoyed by bigger parties in the winner-takes-all system.
The Brexit imbroglio impacts the ruling party most, forcing out two Conservative leaders in three years. The party is now locked in an election to replace Theresa May by late July.
Conservatives talk openly about the possibility of extinction if they don’t implement Brexit. The contest’s likely winner, Boris Johnson, says the UK should leave the EU by the latest deadline of 31 October with or without a deal – although he sees such a move as a bargaining chip rather than his preferred option.
Johnson has built a wide alliance of Conservative MPs with different views on how to resolve Brexit but who are united on avoiding electoral oblivion, and stopping Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn entering Downing Street.
Could a fresh and determined prime minister adjust May’s withdrawal agreement in time? The current EU leadership says it won’t renegotiate the withdrawal deal and, in any case, will be replaced by new leaders on November 1. The UK Parliament is also in recess in August and half of September.
If anyone can find a compromise by then or with a technical extension maybe until the end of the year, it will be Johnson. But he is not viewed with affection by the EU, which would have to unanimously agree such an extension at a scheduled summit in mid-October. Timing is tight.
Any extension would mean Johnson swallowing his promises and disappointing some followers. But, if it becomes a choice between the nuclear option of No Deal and a few weeks delay, then perhaps the move is doable. If a new Tory leader can pull off that trick, it is likely a general election will follow to give him a mandate to negotiate the next stage of Brexit – a new trade deal with the EU.
Labour is in a difficult position for different reasons. Most of its members and voters are against Brexit, although many Labour seats are vulnerable to challenges from Remain parties and the Brexit Party. Millions of Conservative voters were also in favor of remaining in the EU and could also be in the balance.
Corbyn has tried, not unreasonably, to assert that voters should not be divided by Brexit, but the shine has come off his leadership thanks to widespread dissent on his complex and constructively ambiguous position on Brexit, which led many Labour members and voters to choose other parties in the European elections.
Furthermore, Labour is seen by many members and voters as sinking in a morass of nasty anti-Semitism that has led the official Equality and Human Rights Commission to investigate discrimination in the party.
Corbyn’s leadership is increasingly contested with members leaving in droves and talk of MPs setting up a new parliamentary faction and later a party. If that includes more than half of Labour MPs, it would end Corbyn’s time as Leader of the Opposition and his guaranteed weekly platform of Prime Minister’s Questions.
If there were a new deal, however, Labour could abstain and it would be passed. If a new deal is impossible and No Deal is the only option left, many Labour activists, MPs, and others would act to stop Brexit altogether.
The major problem for anti-Brexit forces is that the referendum explicitly instructed the government to leave the EU. The referendum campaign was vague about how to do this and it has proved to be more complex than many thought, given that nearly 50 years of links has changed how the British economy works: Brexit is like taking the eggs out of an omelet.
May’s deal sought a departure with minimal disruption. A No Deal departure would be beyond what most people voted for and could be presented as a new situation which should be put back to the people. It would not be a question of re-running a referendum simply because the result displeased nearly half the people.
That logically drives the demand for a bipartisan deal that is pretty much what May concluded. Such logic was in short supply in reaction to May’s efforts to pass the deal, however. Maybe the threat of splits and of losing voters could concentrate minds.
Resolving Brexit one way or another will require leadership of a quality so far not seen. And then there are burning issues which have been sidelined in the last three years, but which also animate voters who, for instance, feel economically excluded and worried about climate change.
Whether the duopoly remains safe will depend on whether Brexit comes to be seen as needlessly damaging and those who promoted it or acquiesced in it are kicked in the ballots.
British politics is in a pretty pickle in the coming decisive months.
Brexit has massively disrupted traditional voting patterns and may replace the Labour and Conservative duopoly of the 20th century. They received just 23 percent of the vote in the recent European elections, arguably a free hit for protest politics. But a recent poll shows these two parties, plus the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats, are each on roughly 20 percent of the vote. This could void the usual advantages enjoyed by bigger parties in the winner-takes-all system.
The Brexit imbroglio impacts the ruling party most, forcing out two Conservative leaders in three years. The party is now locked in an election to replace Theresa May by late July.
Conservatives talk openly about the possibility of extinction if they don’t implement Brexit. The contest’s likely winner, Boris Johnson, says the UK should leave the EU by the latest deadline of 31 October with or without a deal – although he sees such a move as a bargaining chip rather than his preferred option.
Johnson has built a wide alliance of Conservative MPs with different views on how to resolve Brexit but who are united on avoiding electoral oblivion, and stopping Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn entering Downing Street.
Could a fresh and determined prime minister adjust May’s withdrawal agreement in time? The current EU leadership says it won’t renegotiate the withdrawal deal and, in any case, will be replaced by new leaders on November 1. The UK Parliament is also in recess in August and half of September.
If anyone can find a compromise by then or with a technical extension maybe until the end of the year, it will be Johnson. But he is not viewed with affection by the EU, which would have to unanimously agree such an extension at a scheduled summit in mid-October. Timing is tight.
Any extension would mean Johnson swallowing his promises and disappointing some followers. But, if it becomes a choice between the nuclear option of No Deal and a few weeks delay, then perhaps the move is doable. If a new Tory leader can pull off that trick, it is likely a general election will follow to give him a mandate to negotiate the next stage of Brexit – a new trade deal with the EU.
Labour is in a difficult position for different reasons. Most of its members and voters are against Brexit, although many Labour seats are vulnerable to challenges from Remain parties and the Brexit Party. Millions of Conservative voters were also in favor of remaining in the EU and could also be in the balance.
Corbyn has tried, not unreasonably, to assert that voters should not be divided by Brexit, but the shine has come off his leadership thanks to widespread dissent on his complex and constructively ambiguous position on Brexit, which led many Labour members and voters to choose other parties in the European elections.
Furthermore, Labour is seen by many members and voters as sinking in a morass of nasty anti-Semitism that has led the official Equality and Human Rights Commission to investigate discrimination in the party.
Corbyn’s leadership is increasingly contested with members leaving in droves and talk of MPs setting up a new parliamentary faction and later a party. If that includes more than half of Labour MPs, it would end Corbyn’s time as Leader of the Opposition and his guaranteed weekly platform of Prime Minister’s Questions.
If there were a new deal, however, Labour could abstain and it would be passed. If a new deal is impossible and No Deal is the only option left, many Labour activists, MPs, and others would act to stop Brexit altogether.
The major problem for anti-Brexit forces is that the referendum explicitly instructed the government to leave the EU. The referendum campaign was vague about how to do this and it has proved to be more complex than many thought, given that nearly 50 years of links has changed how the British economy works: Brexit is like taking the eggs out of an omelet.
May’s deal sought a departure with minimal disruption. A No Deal departure would be beyond what most people voted for and could be presented as a new situation which should be put back to the people. It would not be a question of re-running a referendum simply because the result displeased nearly half the people.
That logically drives the demand for a bipartisan deal that is pretty much what May concluded. Such logic was in short supply in reaction to May’s efforts to pass the deal, however. Maybe the threat of splits and of losing voters could concentrate minds.
Resolving Brexit one way or another will require leadership of a quality so far not seen. And then there are burning issues which have been sidelined in the last three years, but which also animate voters who, for instance, feel economically excluded and worried about climate change.
Whether the duopoly remains safe will depend on whether Brexit comes to be seen as needlessly damaging and those who promoted it or acquiesced in it are kicked in the ballots.
British politics is in a pretty pickle in the coming decisive months.
 |
Gary Kent is the Secretary of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) and a Fellow of Soran University. He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com.
|
Comments
Rudaw moderates all comments submitted on our website. We welcome comments which are relevant to the article and encourage further discussion about the issues that matter to you. We also welcome constructive criticism about Rudaw.
To be approved for publication, however, your comments must meet our community guidelines.
We will not tolerate the following: profanity, threats, personal attacks, vulgarity, abuse (such as sexism, racism, homophobia or xenophobia), or commercial or personal promotion.
Comments that do not meet our guidelines will be rejected. Comments are not edited – they are either approved or rejected.
Post a comment