Iraq this month floated the prospect of increasing its military cooperation with Russia. In light of its strained relations with the United States, Iraq’s decade-long flirtation with Russian military hardware could soon grow into a committed relationship.
Earlier this month, Iraq’s army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Othman Al-Ghanimi met with Russia’s ambassador to Iraq Maksim Maksimov in Baghdad. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, they discussed the future of bilateral military ties.
Al-Ghanimi said Moscow had provided Iraq’s “armed forces with advanced and effective equipment and weapons that had a major role in resolving many battles” against the Islamic State group (ISIS).
Around the same time, an Iraqi intelligence official said Russia had offered military support in the wake of the US assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Baghdad on January 3.
The killings deepened tensions between Iraq and the US and undermined cooperation in the fight against ISIS. Calls to evict US forces from Iraqi soil and close the airspace to American military aircraft grew louder.
It is therefore unsurprising that Russia is eyeing up an opportunity to boost its military cooperation with Iraq at the expense of the United States.
Decreased dependence on Washington
The Iraqi military last week launched a new anti-ISIS operation in Anbar province without the support of the US-led coalition or the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), also known as the Hashd al-Shaabi.
The success or failure of this operation may provide a clear indicator of the Iraqi military’s ability to fight alone.
In another sign of Iraq’s desire to break its dependency on US capabilities, the Iraqi military intelligence official also said “Iraq still needs reconnaissance planes” for operations.
“There are countries that have given signals to Iraq to support us or equip us with reconnaissance planes, such as Russia and Iran,” the official said.
When airstrikes, likely carried out by Israel, bombed Hashd al-Shaabi targets in Iraq last summer, Baghdad briefly closed its airspace to the coalition. This severely undermined US-led intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions against ISIS in Iraq.
If Baghdad pushes ahead with buying reconnaissance aircraft, this could be another indicator that Iraq is serious about readying itself for continued operations against ISIS without US air and intelligence support.
Russian armaments
In the late 2000s, some analysts anticipated that Iraq's military would consist mainly of American equipment, using the US military as a model for its new military. However, Iraq has increasingly turned to Russia for its military needs.
Russia is already a significant arms supplier of the Iraqi military, and Baghdad has increasingly turned to Moscow over Washington for its military hardware over the last decade.
The US supplied Baghdad with 140 refurbished M1 Abrams main battle tanks (MBTs) between 2010 and 2012. However, when those same tanks showed up in the hands of Iraqi Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitaries, with one infamously destroyed in a battle against the Kurdish Peshmerga in October 2017, the US withheld technical support to pressure Baghdad into retrieving them.
Iraq consequently faced difficulties in maintaining its Abrams fleet.
Since then, Iraq ordered and received 73 Russian T-90S MBTs and even replaced the Abrams tanks previously in the Iraqi Army 9th Division's 35th Brigade with the new Russian tanks.
Also, instead of outfitting its military with American AH-64 Apache helicopter gunships, Iraq bought Russian Mi-28 and Mi-35s, most likely because there were not strict conditions attached to their usage and because Baghdad has more experience operating and maintaining Russian equipment.
Then there is the case of Iraq's fleet of American-built Lockheed Martin F-16IQ Viper jet fighter-bombers. Delivered during the war against ISIS, the jets were a positive sign of the continued US-Iraq military partnership.
However, these fighters might also fall victim to the present crisis in US-Iraq relations.
After the killing of Soleimani, all US security personnel and technicians were evacuated from Iraq's Balad Airbase in light of the increased tensions with Iran in Iraq. This sparked some fears in the US that the jet technology could become compromised if Iran-backed paramilitaries gain access to Balad during the Americans' absence.
Also, in the absence of continued US technical support and a steady supply of spare parts, the 36-jet fleet could soon become grounded.
"The longer Lockheed is out, the more difficult [it is] to sustain the fleet," a US military official told Foreign Policy. "The Iraqis can't do it without the contract help coming back in within a few months."
The F-16s are certainly the most advanced warplanes in the Iraqi arsenal, and they are very difficult for Baghdad to maintain and operate without US support.
However, the Iraqi planes that carried out the most airstrikes by far during the ISIS air campaign were Russian-made Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes, supplied by Moscow and Tehran in June 2014, along with Antonov An-32 cargo planes converted into bombers.
If the Iraqi military continues to fight against ISIS without US-led coalition air support, such planes will likely continue to carry out most of the bombing.
Furthermore, the F-16IQs are only equipped with short-range air-to-air missiles, not with long-range AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles of the kind that F-16s in the neighbouring air forces of Jordan and Turkey are supplied with.
Potential cooperation with Moscow
Timur Akhmetov, an Ankara-based Middle East researcher for the Russian International Affairs Council, shared his thoughts with Rudaw English about what increased military cooperation between Baghdad and Moscow might entail.
"I think the priority of any talks between Russia and Iraq will be on arms used in anti-terror operations," he said.
"Russia wants stable statehood in Iraq since it could provide stability in economic activity in the oil sector and stability on the Iraqi-Syrian border."
Moscow can offer Baghdad a variety of weapon systems "suitable to that task." These range from artillery guns to additional helicopters.
"I think Russia would be most willing to sell these types of items, especially after showcasing the successful deployment of the same weaponry in Syria," Akmetov said. He also noted that cheap low-maintenance Su-25s "are better suited to the challenges the Iraqi government is facing right now."
Akhmetov is unsure if Baghdad will seek more advanced Russian Sukhoi multi-role jets such as the Su-30, Su-34, or Su-35, all of which can fire R-77 air-to-air missiles, the Russian equivalent of the AMRAAM. He anticipates that this will all depend "on what priorities the Iraqi Air Force has right now."
"I haven't seen any news on ongoing talks about fresh deliveries of any fighter jets," he said. "Left to me, I would first bring on to the table helicopters, then more Su-25s and only then maybe some fighter jets."
