KDP gauging allies and foes in KRG’s formation
The task of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in the Kurdistan Region parliament will be very difficult in the next four years. For the KDP to remain a ruling party in the coalition government and continue relations with Baghdad, there should be political stability within Kurdistan. The KDP should play its role as a big brother by working together with other parties and to demonstrate teamwork in the government.
KDP and PUK
There won’t be political stability if there are problems with other parties. The KDP needs to resolve outstanding problems with Kurdish parties and Baghdad because the continuation of these problems will hamper governance in the Kurdistan Region. And the KDP is capable of settling these disputes and being a factor for good in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, and with neighboring countries.
The KDP is looking for partners who will not quit in the next government. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is a likely partner that would remain in government. The PUK is currently split into two factions – one led by late party founder Jalal Talabani’s widow, Hero Ibrahim, and one by current deputy leader Kosrat Rasul. The KDP has found itself at odds each time it reaches an agreement with either of these two because they support the KDP only for short-term gains.
So how would the KDP strike a balance between these two PUK factions after they both had a role in the issue of settling the position of Iraqi president? Which PUK faction will the KDP come to an agreement with? The KDP will do its homework to see which of these two factions are more reliable.
The KDP is upset with the faction led by Rasul for his role in deciding the question of Iraqi presidency and is unsure whether his team would be strong and reliable. But the faction led by Ibrahim is prepared to guarantee the KDP that it will not turn its back on the KDP.
Currently, Bafel Talabani — eldest son of Talabani — has the final say in the PUK. His main demand from the KDP is that his brother Qubad Talabani remains as deputy prime minister of the KRG and they are given the ministry of interior too. The Talabani faction will also want to occupy the post of parliament speaker if the KDP allows it.
Bafel Talabani had told the KDP he reached a deal with the KDP on the issue of Iraqi presidency, but Kosrat violated that by favoring Barham Salih’s presidency. Bafel Talabani had thought about the formation of the next KRG cabinet and hence had come to an agreement with the KDP on the Iraqi presidential post, but Rasul had only thought about Salih becoming Iraqi president — a position that serves the interests of neither the PUK nor the Kurds other than Salih himself.
The Islamic Republic of Iran also wants the Talabani faction to have a strong role in the KRG in order for the Kurdistan Region to maintain its stability because Tehran needs the Kurdistan Region to be a strong and stable market following the second round of US sanctions.
KDP and Gorran
The PUK doesn’t want Gorran (Change Movement) to be part of the government; however Gorran has the right to take part in governance having won seats. Gorran wants to enter the next cabinet. But Gorran fares no better than the PUK in terms of political infighting. That is why the party is not likely to ensure a strong and stable team in the government.
It is the members and supporters of Gorran who have become a problem for the party. And the PUK cannot afford staying idle while the KDP brokers a deal with Gorran at the cost of the PUK. The Talabani faction, especially Lahur Talabany (cousin of Qubad and Bafel), who has much influence over Gorran and is therefore likely to ruin any deals between the KDP and Gorran.
It will be harder for the KDP to broker a deal with Gorran than it is with the PUK. Gorran has asked for three ministries if it finally decides to participate. In order to protect stability in the Kurdistan Region, the KDP should be careful not to provoke the PUK by getting close to Gorran. The KDP should view the PUK as it is.
Komal
The Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal) lost the trust of the KDP by taking an undesirable stance on certain matters. The KDP is so upset with Komal that it is unlikely to trust Komal again easily because of Komal’s stance on June 23, 2015 (regarding amendments to the presidency law) and due to not taking part in the referendum, and playing the role of opposition while they were part of the government. That is why it is impossible for the KDP to give Komal some space in the government.
KDP gauging allies and foes in KRG’s formation
The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) decided it wanted to be in the opposition early on and this was mostly driven by pressure from its fans and members because of the party’s poor performance in elections.. And the KDP respects the decision made by the KIU.
New Generation
The New Generation is not a party to rely on in the government or in the opposition. The party has chosen to be in the opposition as it knew they wouldn’t be given space in the government. This party will not remain strong in the midst of all these political rivalries in the Kurdistan Region. They are not the “new generation;” rather, they are no different than the members of the KDP, PUK, Gorran and Islamic parties.
Hevidar Ahmed is a new member of the Kurdistan Region parliament and a former Rudaw journalist.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
KDP and PUK
There won’t be political stability if there are problems with other parties. The KDP needs to resolve outstanding problems with Kurdish parties and Baghdad because the continuation of these problems will hamper governance in the Kurdistan Region. And the KDP is capable of settling these disputes and being a factor for good in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, and with neighboring countries.
The KDP is looking for partners who will not quit in the next government. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is a likely partner that would remain in government. The PUK is currently split into two factions – one led by late party founder Jalal Talabani’s widow, Hero Ibrahim, and one by current deputy leader Kosrat Rasul. The KDP has found itself at odds each time it reaches an agreement with either of these two because they support the KDP only for short-term gains.
So how would the KDP strike a balance between these two PUK factions after they both had a role in the issue of settling the position of Iraqi president? Which PUK faction will the KDP come to an agreement with? The KDP will do its homework to see which of these two factions are more reliable.
The KDP is upset with the faction led by Rasul for his role in deciding the question of Iraqi presidency and is unsure whether his team would be strong and reliable. But the faction led by Ibrahim is prepared to guarantee the KDP that it will not turn its back on the KDP.
Currently, Bafel Talabani — eldest son of Talabani — has the final say in the PUK. His main demand from the KDP is that his brother Qubad Talabani remains as deputy prime minister of the KRG and they are given the ministry of interior too. The Talabani faction will also want to occupy the post of parliament speaker if the KDP allows it.
Bafel Talabani had told the KDP he reached a deal with the KDP on the issue of Iraqi presidency, but Kosrat violated that by favoring Barham Salih’s presidency. Bafel Talabani had thought about the formation of the next KRG cabinet and hence had come to an agreement with the KDP on the Iraqi presidential post, but Rasul had only thought about Salih becoming Iraqi president — a position that serves the interests of neither the PUK nor the Kurds other than Salih himself.
The Islamic Republic of Iran also wants the Talabani faction to have a strong role in the KRG in order for the Kurdistan Region to maintain its stability because Tehran needs the Kurdistan Region to be a strong and stable market following the second round of US sanctions.
KDP and Gorran
The PUK doesn’t want Gorran (Change Movement) to be part of the government; however Gorran has the right to take part in governance having won seats. Gorran wants to enter the next cabinet. But Gorran fares no better than the PUK in terms of political infighting. That is why the party is not likely to ensure a strong and stable team in the government.
It is the members and supporters of Gorran who have become a problem for the party. And the PUK cannot afford staying idle while the KDP brokers a deal with Gorran at the cost of the PUK. The Talabani faction, especially Lahur Talabany (cousin of Qubad and Bafel), who has much influence over Gorran and is therefore likely to ruin any deals between the KDP and Gorran.
It will be harder for the KDP to broker a deal with Gorran than it is with the PUK. Gorran has asked for three ministries if it finally decides to participate. In order to protect stability in the Kurdistan Region, the KDP should be careful not to provoke the PUK by getting close to Gorran. The KDP should view the PUK as it is.
Komal
The Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal) lost the trust of the KDP by taking an undesirable stance on certain matters. The KDP is so upset with Komal that it is unlikely to trust Komal again easily because of Komal’s stance on June 23, 2015 (regarding amendments to the presidency law) and due to not taking part in the referendum, and playing the role of opposition while they were part of the government. That is why it is impossible for the KDP to give Komal some space in the government.
KDP gauging allies and foes in KRG’s formation
The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) decided it wanted to be in the opposition early on and this was mostly driven by pressure from its fans and members because of the party’s poor performance in elections.. And the KDP respects the decision made by the KIU.
New Generation
The New Generation is not a party to rely on in the government or in the opposition. The party has chosen to be in the opposition as it knew they wouldn’t be given space in the government. This party will not remain strong in the midst of all these political rivalries in the Kurdistan Region. They are not the “new generation;” rather, they are no different than the members of the KDP, PUK, Gorran and Islamic parties.
Hevidar Ahmed is a new member of the Kurdistan Region parliament and a former Rudaw journalist.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.