Kurdistan after Mosul

Last week I accompanied British MPs on a fact-finding delegation to Erbil, Slemani, and Duhok as well as a suburb of Mosul, Bartella, although we missed the injured horse that Rudaw has rightly highlighted. We saw in Kurdistan a generally progressive and pluralist place determined to reform itself, prosper in a volatile region, and connect to modernity, and whose Peshmerga has delivered decisive blows against fascism. Iraq and Kurdistan before and after Mosul will be different.

We discussed downsides such as a dysfunctional economy that has been exposed by the drop in oil prices and explored the economic reforms the KRG is making. We discussed the paralysis of Parliament and differences over the constitution with the three main parties and with the Speaker in Slemani. That Kurdish leaders chose a democratic path in 1992 encouraged support from the West, in line with the generally pro-Western approach of the Kurds. The internal disputes have been largely secondary to Mosul for the international community but resolution should follow liberation.

That day is coming soon. In Kirkuk last November MPs heard that the Iraqi Army and the Peshmerga were barely on speaking terms. This time, we were told of unprecedented co-operation between the two armies. This has astonished Daesh, which was relying on continued disunity, and which will be their unmaking. Whether military unity can change political relations between Erbil and Baghdad is another matter - Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said he was "cautiously optimistic."

The shift from military to political struggle requires other changes, especially in internal and external communications. In recently teaching a media relations course for civil servants at the European Technology and Training Centre in Erbil, we examined how the global media scene has changed and how cheap internet platforms enable organisations and individuals to project messages.

The downside of this revolution is that poorly or unsourced news stories can achieve greater and unwarranted prominence and we have also seen the rise of "post-truth politics," which exploits the desire for balance by emitting a chaff of spurious stories that gain false validity. There is enough conspiracism in the Middle East without this. The English writer GK Chesterton said in another context that "When Man ceases to worship God he does not worship nothing but worships everything." The same applies to the news. Reliable information is a strategic goal that can cohere society, encourage more evidence-based debate, and undermine the uber-cynicism that corrodes trust, and sometimes causes panic.

It was encouraging to hear of longer-term projects that can help the Kurds better woo the world and win greater solidarity. I visited the old cigarette factory in Slemani - which I first saw ten years ago - and discussed ambitious plans to build a film industry so that Kurds can acquire the strategic goal of telling their stories globally,  and add revenues to a diversifying economy.

One of those stories concerns the profound humanitarian crisis caused by Daesh. Too few in the West yet understand the scale of the burden faced by the sub-sovereign KRG and many only understand the impact on sovereign states such as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. A one third increase in the population of Kurdistan should be better understood.

Another abiding impression is the size of the hurt locker created by Daesh. We visited five IDP camps and the Syrian Refugee camp in Duhok to get an insight into the traumas faced by those who have so far escaped Daesh enslavement, or face years of exile. The impact of Anfal in the 1980s was also profound and continues but there was simply not the time or the resources to deal with it given the priority devoted to creating a state from scratch, the awful civil war, and state-building from 2003. We have just seen a small portion of the mental turmoil that Daesh fascism inflicted in just two years. Many have been to hell and back with nightmares and flashbacks that will persist, and much more will be revealed after Mosul, but can be reduced and managed carefully and professionally.

Daesh will surely be trounced on the battlefield but freedom in Mosul could initiate profound change. There are differences about the timing if not the direction of travel towards an amicable divorce between Erbil and Baghdad, which is now formally on the table. It's possible that federalism can be retrieved and partition avoided but my instinct, as an aid worker told me, is that "you can save Iraqis, or you can save Iraq but you cannot do both." Kurds have now gained a state that works after a fashion and could perform even better. The Kurds in Iraq have the thanks of the world for the bravery of the Peshmerga, and they have achieved major changes but more are needed after Mosul.

Gary Kent is the director of All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com. 

 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.