Referendum can only succeed if will of the nation is united
A decision to set the referendum date in Kurdistan to determine the fate of the Kurdish nation in Iraq with the inclusion of Kirkuk and the all Kurdistani areas outside the Region was a crucial and brave move for all the parties that attended the meeting. It would, however, have more significance if the Change Movement (Gorran) and Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal) had attended.
Even more significant, though, would be holding the meeting in the Kurdistan parliament with the participation of all these parties. But it is just a wish. As our ancestors have said, "they planted the wish and it did not bear fruit." We cannot go back in time to change events that have happened.
However, past events should not be used as an excuse for Kurds to not step further forward, especially when standing at the beginning of a path that could, through right politics, compensate for past mistakes.
The success of a vital process related to the destiny of a nation without identity when surrounded by foes can only be assured by togetherness and public will. Now, just one phase of the process has started – setting the referendum date. The hard work is still to come. Harder than succeeding in holding the referendum and declaring independence is obtaining international support to recognize the Kurdistan state.
The next mission after the declaration of the referendum date should be ending the rivalries and political stalemates of Kurdistan. Even though 35 political Kurdish, Turkmen, and Assyrian parties in the Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk support the process, it will be a weak success without a solution to draw Gorran and Komal into the process. Even if we pass the first phase, we will face obstacles in other steps.
The continued political impasse, the parliament issue, and the financial crisis are the primary obstacles facing the referendum process. This is in addition to the bad governmental and political parties' performance of a quarter of a century, the result of which is that part of the Kurdistan people considers not only the referendum process unimportant, but also the Kurdistan state.
Probably, we are the only nation on earth facing the risk of choosing between independence or oppression after many centuries of depression, or fearing opposition to independence by some people. This is of course to some extent related to the colonial culture and a long period of exploitation. But more than that, it relates to the 25 years’ experience of Kurds governing themselves that have destroyed the people to this large extent.
The dissatisfaction of the people must not be ignored. A media campaign or what is seen on social media are not normal. The dissatisfaction and concerns are not only from those parties who did not attend the meeting, but also are part of the fan base of those parties whose leaders attended the meeting.
How and in what way those people could be brought back to the referendum front, this is a great obligation and responsibility. Although many things will turn in favor of the referendum by reducing dissatisfaction over the next 100 days left for the process, work has to be done to form a social and political mobilization. This is particularly so because some suspect whether the referendum is a go-ahead for independence, citing as a justification remarks from some officials who have said that the referendum is an attempt to shift attentions away from the crises.
We have to be frank and clear with our people as some fear the future of the Kurdistan state and do not know what kind of state it will be. If the purpose of the referendum is not to declare independence, then we will not need any scenario. If it is for independence, no misleading is needed because even our enemies are not that naive to be misled by these kinds of remarks.
The danger is not whether people vote for or vote against. The big peril, besides the intensity of the process itself, is that it has many rivals. Not voting in favor of the referendum gives the process’ rivals the opportunity to create obstacles.
The initial reactions and stances from some of the regional countries opposing the referendum were not promising, though we do not have to expect countries to announce that they are in favor of dividing Iraq. In such a situation, the internal situation is more important than the position of other countries.
In the end, countries who have diplomatic missions and consulates in Kurdistan, and other countries of the world who observe the situation of Kurdistan, will see and hear our social and political colors and voices. Lack of internal seriousness and a weak will of the nation towards such an important question will become a major threat to the future of the process. As a result it might also affect the position of other countries. Therefore, internal positions and the togetherness of the people of Kurdistan with a united will, will to a large extent assure the success of all the phases of the process.
If all the people of Kurdistan together have a united will, then the opposition of foreign nations to the referendum will not have a substantial significance and will not pose a threat to the process, just as the nation's will in the spring uprising of 1991 overcame all barriers. When we also wanted to hold elections for the parliament and later formed the government and declared federalism, not only did no government or country support us, but also they threatened to attack Kurdistan. But because the will of the nation was behind its leadership, no reactions or threats from anyone worked as the Kurds proved themselves on the ground. They were even obliged to deal with us.
This experience is the case for the future, too. If the will of the whole Kurdistan nation is behind it, it will for sure succeed. Much earlier than expected, on a regional and international level, the Kurdistan state will be recognized as countries will find their interest in the natural resources of Kurdistan.
Arif Qurbany is a Kurdish political analyst and observer. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
Even more significant, though, would be holding the meeting in the Kurdistan parliament with the participation of all these parties. But it is just a wish. As our ancestors have said, "they planted the wish and it did not bear fruit." We cannot go back in time to change events that have happened.
However, past events should not be used as an excuse for Kurds to not step further forward, especially when standing at the beginning of a path that could, through right politics, compensate for past mistakes.
The success of a vital process related to the destiny of a nation without identity when surrounded by foes can only be assured by togetherness and public will. Now, just one phase of the process has started – setting the referendum date. The hard work is still to come. Harder than succeeding in holding the referendum and declaring independence is obtaining international support to recognize the Kurdistan state.
The next mission after the declaration of the referendum date should be ending the rivalries and political stalemates of Kurdistan. Even though 35 political Kurdish, Turkmen, and Assyrian parties in the Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk support the process, it will be a weak success without a solution to draw Gorran and Komal into the process. Even if we pass the first phase, we will face obstacles in other steps.
The continued political impasse, the parliament issue, and the financial crisis are the primary obstacles facing the referendum process. This is in addition to the bad governmental and political parties' performance of a quarter of a century, the result of which is that part of the Kurdistan people considers not only the referendum process unimportant, but also the Kurdistan state.
Probably, we are the only nation on earth facing the risk of choosing between independence or oppression after many centuries of depression, or fearing opposition to independence by some people. This is of course to some extent related to the colonial culture and a long period of exploitation. But more than that, it relates to the 25 years’ experience of Kurds governing themselves that have destroyed the people to this large extent.
The dissatisfaction of the people must not be ignored. A media campaign or what is seen on social media are not normal. The dissatisfaction and concerns are not only from those parties who did not attend the meeting, but also are part of the fan base of those parties whose leaders attended the meeting.
How and in what way those people could be brought back to the referendum front, this is a great obligation and responsibility. Although many things will turn in favor of the referendum by reducing dissatisfaction over the next 100 days left for the process, work has to be done to form a social and political mobilization. This is particularly so because some suspect whether the referendum is a go-ahead for independence, citing as a justification remarks from some officials who have said that the referendum is an attempt to shift attentions away from the crises.
We have to be frank and clear with our people as some fear the future of the Kurdistan state and do not know what kind of state it will be. If the purpose of the referendum is not to declare independence, then we will not need any scenario. If it is for independence, no misleading is needed because even our enemies are not that naive to be misled by these kinds of remarks.
The danger is not whether people vote for or vote against. The big peril, besides the intensity of the process itself, is that it has many rivals. Not voting in favor of the referendum gives the process’ rivals the opportunity to create obstacles.
The initial reactions and stances from some of the regional countries opposing the referendum were not promising, though we do not have to expect countries to announce that they are in favor of dividing Iraq. In such a situation, the internal situation is more important than the position of other countries.
In the end, countries who have diplomatic missions and consulates in Kurdistan, and other countries of the world who observe the situation of Kurdistan, will see and hear our social and political colors and voices. Lack of internal seriousness and a weak will of the nation towards such an important question will become a major threat to the future of the process. As a result it might also affect the position of other countries. Therefore, internal positions and the togetherness of the people of Kurdistan with a united will, will to a large extent assure the success of all the phases of the process.
If all the people of Kurdistan together have a united will, then the opposition of foreign nations to the referendum will not have a substantial significance and will not pose a threat to the process, just as the nation's will in the spring uprising of 1991 overcame all barriers. When we also wanted to hold elections for the parliament and later formed the government and declared federalism, not only did no government or country support us, but also they threatened to attack Kurdistan. But because the will of the nation was behind its leadership, no reactions or threats from anyone worked as the Kurds proved themselves on the ground. They were even obliged to deal with us.
This experience is the case for the future, too. If the will of the whole Kurdistan nation is behind it, it will for sure succeed. Much earlier than expected, on a regional and international level, the Kurdistan state will be recognized as countries will find their interest in the natural resources of Kurdistan.
Arif Qurbany is a Kurdish political analyst and observer. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.