According to Article 110, Section 9 of the Iraqi constitution, the federal government has exclusive authority over the matter of general population statistics and census. On this basis, the Iraqi government has decided to hold a nationwide census for population and estates in October 2020, under the slogan of 'Census for Development'. It has been 33 years since a census was last held in Iraq, supposedly due in part to Iraq’s unstable security situation from 1987 onwards. The upcoming census will be held in accordance with a 2008 census law, which originally decreed for the census to be held between 2009 and 2010. The unstable security of Iraq became the pretext for the delay of the process, but perhaps it was due to the Kurdish control over the disputed areas at the time.
According to the aforementioned law, data collection for the census will cover all demographic information, including the population’s social, economic, intellectual, and health, as well as the collection of information on education level, race, religion and residency place. It is a technical and scientific matter, which must be held in line with international standards to provide economic, social and cultural information on the population to the state so they can lay out comprehensive development plans for the country across all fields.
But in a country like Iraq, where everything has become politicized, holding a census at this stage of growing instability has a political dimension, and this move has generated concerns among Kurds. Even the UNFPA, which works with the Iraqi government's statistics center as a consultancy agency, has attributed any chance for success of the looming census to a stable political and security atmosphere in the country.
It bears asking why, at a time when parts of the country – especially disputed areas claimed by Erbil and Baghdad – are engulfed in political instability and uncertainty, the Iraqi government is deciding to hold a census. What are the negative consequences of holding the anticipated census in disputed areas where, since October 16, 2017, a large number of its Kurdish population have been displaced and Arabs now hold power? Will holding the census impede any just resolution of Kurdish question in Iraq?
If we assess the political and legal talks and questions taking place between Erbil and Baghdad, Kurds always back and rely on the 1957 census, which was one of scientific accuracy. The holding of the 2020 census will devalue the 1957 census, as the more recent one will become the basis of any decision making by the Iraqi federal government. It is not unlikely that the balance of power will change in the disputed areas in favor of Arabs. There is no guarantee that the looming census will be held in a fair way, away from the influence of political and military authorities in the disputed areas.
Another concern is that any low turnout of Kurds in the census will result in the reduction of the Kurdistan Region's budget share. As we all know, Baghdad has repeatedly informed Erbil that the KRG's 17 percent budget share will be fixed in the annual fiscal budgets until the census is held. But since 2014, the Region's share has been fixed at 12.7 percent, and it will be impossible to increase the level to 17 percent ever again. Kurds can only insist that the budget must be 17 percent share if it turns out that they constitute 17 percent of the Iraqi population in the 2020 census.
The ratio of Kurds in Iraq is now below 17 percent. If this is confirmed by the 2020 census, it will be neither logical nor legal for Kurds to fight for 17 percent share of the budget, and if they do, it’s a war they have already lost.
Given that the 2020 census will be scientifically, technically and now politically determined, it is better for Kurds to push this matter in their talks with Baghdad in order to find a reasonable solution to holding the census in the disputed areas.
It can only be done through a swift resolution and normalization of areas disputed or otherwise, so that in addition to Kurds displaced from Kirkuk, displaced people from other parts of Iraq can return home. Another solution is for Kurds to resort to plan B; working to postpone the census, or boycotting the process altogether until conditions are right for their participation.
Azad Valadbaigi is a legal researcher and journalist who has written for Rudaw since mid-2018. He holds an MA in Public Law from the University of Salahadin, Erbil.
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