Turkey is about to lose its only friend in the region

Hemin Lihony

In the city of Mardin last week, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recalled a moment from the Sulaimani Forum where spoke a few sentences in Kurdish and received a tearful standing ovation from the audience. I was a witness of that moment myself. But that was 2013, and now the Turkish leaders may never see that kind of reaction again and even Erbil-Ankara relations are at risk.

The “zero problems” policy of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) succeeded and survived only in the Kurdistan Region, but now indications suggest that Turkey is also about to lose Erbil, its only friend in the region.

Two events are the reason for the negative change of public opinion in the Kurdistan Region towards Turkey:
First: When he came to Erbil in 2012 to attend the inauguration of the Erbil international airport, and to streets decorated with Kurdish-Turkish flags, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech, “The security of Erbil means the security of Turkey,” but in August 2014 the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist group advanced to within sight of that same airport and yet Turkey was the last country to help. Thanks to the US and President Obama who within 24 hours came and saved Iraq’s only success story. Many ordinary citizens and officials were shocked as to why Turkey who was so close to us didn’t rush to help! Kurdistan president’s chief of staff Fuad Hussein told this newspaper back then that the first country they approached for help was Turkey but the answer wasn’t what was expected.

Second: With an ongoing ISIS war and decline in oil prices the Kurdistan Region has faced an immense economic crisis. The Kurdish government has not been able to pay its civil servants for almost five months.  The Kurdistan Region is now one of Turkey’s best markets with trade relations of $8 billion. 1,300 Turkish companies operate in the region. But this crisis brings the Kurdistan Region new and bigger challenges and a growing risk of anti-government protests. Hence some ask where is Turkey at this juncture. Kurdish opposition parties wonder, mockingly, why the situation has gotten so bad when Turkey was so a close friend. Ankara has not assisted Erbil in this economic crisis and not even willing to offer a loan.

Those two factors have waned the trust people here had in Turkey and under public pressure the Kurdish government may not be able to continue its friendly ties and seek instead other options as turning to Baghdad or Iran.

If it loses the Kurdistan Region as an ally Turkey must then take into account two risks:

One: Losing public trust in Turkey means the influence of Iran for which there is already the ground as Iran was also one state that afforded too quickly arms and assistance to the Peshmerga against ISIS.

Second: Turkey’s inaction has strengthened the narrative of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the Kurdistan Region where in the last two years tens of Kurdish youth have joined the group on a daily basis, as a high-level Kurdish official revealed to me. The PKK may even be expected to find its voice in the Kurdish parliament after the region’s 2017 elections as opposed to lack of public support for PKK-affiliated groups in previous elections.

One channel left for Turkey to regain its lost trust is through financial support to the Kurdistan Region where Turkey’s own friends in power are facing public anger and anti-Turkish voices grow louder.

At the Sulaimani Forum Davutoglu said there was no need for a language to communicate as Turkey and the Kurds spoke heart to heart. But people here have no time for words and want to see action from their friends.


The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.

: @lihony
: hlihony@rudaw.net