Iraq protests exacerbate testing times for PM Abdul-Mahdi

Eight years into the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the people of Iraq started to wage demonstrations simultaneous to those of several other Arab countries under the influence of the wave of the Arab Spring. They protested a lack of basic services, unemployment, injustice and corruption. The Iraqi government, at the time under the reign of Nouri al-Maliki, was given a 100-day ultimatum by Muqtada al-Sadr to carry out reform. Many other hundred-day spells have passed since then, yet nothing has been done and the situation continues to worsen.

In the wake of the 2003 toppling of Saddam, a power-sharing, sectarian-based arrangement emerged in Iraq. Each side has been trying to bolster its position within the political system of Iraq by acquiring access to sources of finance and to decision-making bodies. This has led to deep-rooted injustice and corruption, sparking serious outrage among the people of this country. As a result, we have been witnessing sporadic demonstrations across many areas of Iraq since 2015.

Despite Shiites being the dominant force in Iraq, demonstrations are widely being seen in the predominantly Shiite cities and neighborhoods. Most of the protests are believed to be unorganized, natural, without any foreign party involvement, stemming only from their anger at the government.

In his speech addressing protesters in the early hours of October 4, 2019, Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi referred to Iraq as having been built on democratic principles. But the fierce reaction of Iraqi security forces against protesters depicted Iraq as no different states being ruled by oppressive regimes. Iraqi armed forces used extreme violence to silence the protesters. According to estimates, more than a hundred protesters were killed and thousands more wounded. To end the protests, the government imposed multiple measures, including a net blackout and the filtering of social media platforms - something that does not match up with constitutional bases and democratic foundations.

These protests bear different dimensions. The top and first dimension is what originally pushed the demonstrators to pour into the streets; fighting for bread, ending corruption, injustice, lack of basic services and unemployment. The people of Iraq are fed up, and can no longer bear most of the brunt of the worsening economic conditions that have haunted them. According to the International Transparency Index, Iraq is ranked the 12th most corrupt of 180 countries. We can therefore label Iraq as a failed state.

Whatever triggered the outrage of the Iraqi people and pushed them to take to the streets does not change the reality shown by past failed experiences to make grassroots reforms and end corruption in Iraq, or at least provide basic services to its people and bring about social justice.

Another dimension is that Iran and the US are conducting their proxy wars on Iraq’s land.  With protesters heard chanting anti-Iran slogans, some accuse the US and Saudi Arabia of being behind the demonstrations. Therefore, Iranian media outlets are suspicious when it is said there is no external hand behind them.

During the height of the fight against Daesh (Islamic State), the US and Iran did not care much about threats to their interests in Iraq, knowing the country was already plagued by war. But post-ISIS, Iran and the US have virtually halted their coordination and assistance to Iraq with each side wanting the largest piece of the cake – something clearly felt during the formation of the new Iraqi government in October 2018.

In the wake of crippling economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the US, their rivalry has negatively impacted Iraq’s political situation and security. The longer US-Iran rivalries remain, the more deeply complicated Iraq's already fragile situation will become. Any decision Iraq is going to make amid US-Iran tensions will cause conflict between Iraq and one of these countries. Therefore, the violent protests may be a trump card being dealt by one side against the other, to fulfill its own agenda and objectives.

The third dimension of the protests is may stem from internal rivalries among Iraqi parties in Baghdad. We know there is an attempt to overthrow Adil Abdul-Mahdi and his cabinet by some groups is ongoing.

Undoubtedly, ongoing protests will become a golden opportunity for any side wishing to see the collapse of Abdul-Mahdi's government and replace him. It is not improbable that if protests continue, Mahdi will resign, as he is known as a leader whose resignation is always on the table and not as one ready to remain in a position where he becomes worthless. In the past, he withdrew from the posts of vice president of Iraq and oil minister.

Whatever is driving the protesters to show their utmost anger at the government, they have all the right to enjoy a dignified, prosperous and proper life as they have been suffering the authority of a corrupt, unskillful class who have clung onto power in this country.

Azad Valadbaigi is a legal researcher and journalist who has written for Rudaw since mid-2018. He holds an MA in Public Law from the University of Salahadin, Erbil.

Translation by Zhelwan Z. Wali