Window on Westminster

 

There is no golden rule that British politics should be dominated by the Conservative and Labour parties and that their voters have little choice about the matter.

The tradition was tested when Labour found that many of its voters did have an alternative. They could simply not vote. Some of those appalled by Tony Blair's decision to invade Iraq sheltered their votes in the LibDems' safe haven. Opposition to overthrowing fascism somehow became seen as left-wing.

The Conservatives are now discovering that their voters have another bolt hole - that of the populist United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). In last week's local government elections, UKIP soared to third place behind Labour and the Conservatives with about a quarter of the vote.  For the first time, no party won more than 30%.

We should put this into perspective. Two-thirds of the electorate stayed at home. The election was only municipal and didn't cover all parts of the country. It was mid-term when people are more inclined to protest in elections for bodies that don't matter as much as central government.

But the UKIP tally was still very impressive. It owes much to its leader, Nigel Farage's blokeish charm. He doesn't speak like a politician and, a popular accolade here, he's a man with whom you'd enjoy a pint in the local pub (as he is often pictured doing).

The principal UKIP themes are opposition to the European Union (EU) and mass immigration, especially from poorer countries in the EU. These are attractive to many working class Conservative voters who feel squeezed by global economic competition for which the EU is blamed.

It's said, for instance, that cheaper labour from Eastern Europe is great for people who want a less expensive extension to their house but not so appealing for British workers who build them and lose out.

If UKIP maintains its momentum they can divide the Conservative vote and deny them a majority at the general election in 2015. Before that UKIP may outpoll them in next year's European elections. Conservative representatives may even defect to UKIP. There may be local electoral pacts and there is some talk of one at a national level.

A panic is engulfing the Conservatives who can no longer dismiss UKIP as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly" as David Cameron once put it. We can expect a harder position on the European Union but if the Conservatives tilt too sharply to the right they will lose centrist voters who are decisive in elections.

Farage's flame may flicker. He may find it difficult to transform UKIP from a one trick pony into a proper party with policies that stand up to media scrutiny. Some of the antics of its more unsavoury supporters may also taint its brand. Time will tell whether UKIP will be a big or small part of the electoral landscape or a passing ginger group that reshapes established parties.

There are two precedents for this. The first is that of the Green Party which swiped 15% in the European elections in 1989. But the tide receded and it now has just one MP. Its once unique environmental concerns have been absorbed by other parties.

The second example is from when Labour split in 1981 with the formation of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), whose supporters included former senior Cabinet ministers antagonistic to left-wing policies. Ironically, these included what was then seen as a leftist cause - withdrawal from Europe.

The SDP came within a whisker of replacing Labour as the official opposition Party in 1983 before a steep decline with most of its members merging with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democratic Party. However, the long-term success of the SDP was in forcing Labour to adopt moderate social democracy.

As for Labour, it came first in last week's elections with 29% of the vote but made little headway in the south where it is weakest. Labour's current strength could allow it to coast to a small victory or possibly coalition with the LibDems at the 2015 general election, all things being equal which is unlikely. Pundits say that Labour should be far further ahead than now and UKIP could also begin to steal disaffected Labour voters when elections are next held in the big cities.

This prospect will accentuate the party's simmering tensions about how it needs to be more audacious - to the left or the right - if it is to take a more domineering lead in the polls.

UKIP has given British politics a massive shake up and could even break the mould of politics. The jury is out on whether Farage will be seen as the cat who continues to eat the cream at the top table or just the man who once put the cat among the pigeons.

The likelihood is that faced with a choice between Labour and the Conservatives, UKIP's vote will drop in 2015 but it doesn't have to be that high to complicate Conservative efforts to win a majority. It certainly makes British politics more competitive.

* Gary Kent is the administrator of All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity.