French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Baghdad came just two weeks after Kadhimi's trip to Washington, which attracted the attention of the Trump administration. Unlike previous prime ministers of Iraq, Kadhimi did not have to exert much energy to gain the trust of the US and Europe. It seems the trust he gained stems from the difference he has made in office, compared to his predecessors. Kadhimi is not associated with the traditional elite Shiite parties such as the Dawa Party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and other Iraqi leaders who are associated with Iran. We could say Kadhimi belongs to the secular elite group. In the past, it was very difficult for someone from this group to reach the post of prime minister. Former Iraqi lawmaker Izzat al-Shabander believes that Adil Abdul Mahdi was the last Shiite prime minister in Iraq.
Macron's visit to Iraq should be considered as part of a campaign launched by the US and some European and Gulf countries to pull Iraq back into their circle of allies. Since 2011, France has played a polarizing role, interfering in the politics of the Middle East and North Africa, including in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. In the fight against terror, France, along with the US, is strongly present on the ground in the Middle East. This is partly thanks to the void left by Trump's uncertain policies in the region. Macron's visit to Baghdad is a strong show of support for Kadhimi or, as Macron said, to support the sovereignty of Iraq in coordination with the United Nations.
From this perspective, Macron's visit and America’s continued support are part of efforts underway to limit the regional influence of Turkey and Iran, not just in Iraq, but across the Middle East and North Africa. Since 2011, a number of the regimes that collapsed under the Arab Spring were allies of the US, paving the way for Turkey and Iran to expand their meddling in the domestic affairs of these countries. To some extent, Tehran and Ankara have become an impediment to international powers such as the US, France, Russia, and others.
Paris was one of the first capitals to caution about the growing hegemony of Turkey and Iran. When the US decided to withdraw its troops from northern Syria, Macron played a pivotal role in dissuading Trump from making such a move, emphasizing that any troop withdrawal would harm the interests of the West and the US. Uncertainty in Trump's policies on Iraq, Libya and Syria, has given France tremendous opportunity to fill the void.
It may not be a positive development for the diplomatic position of the Kurdistan Region that Macron did not come to Erbil, though France is one of the European countries of high importance to the Kurdistan Region. The majority of Kurds have faith in the French.
France has always been there to support the Kurdistan Region. Coming to the aid of the Kurdistan Region following an embargo by Iraq and regional countries after the September 2017 independence referendum is the best example of the support Erbil has received from Paris during times of hardship. This support from France was a major political and diplomatic treasure Erbil received from Paris.
Macron's visit to Iraq and the invitation of President Nechirvan Barzani to Baghdad was a diversion of the diplomatic position of the Kurdistan Region and I hope it will not form a precedent for other countries to follow in their visits to the country. Inviting Barzani to Baghdad rather than the French president coming to Erbil was attributed to Macron's limited time in Iraq – just four hours. But, sometimes small things in politics have big implications.
Macron's visit was also an attempt to bring Erbil and Baghdad closer to each other. The presence of the president of the Kurdistan Region in Baghdad was a message to Kadhimi that the international support for him does not mean marginalization of the Kurdistan Region. In contrast, Kadhimi can make use of the support of Kurds in the Iraqi parliament if the Shiites turned their back on him and his reform efforts. This is likely to happen.
Zubir R. Ahmed has been a Rudaw Kurdish columnist since 2015. He holds a PhD in Middle East Politics from University of Exeter, UK. He is a lecturer at Salahaddin University-Erbil and a visiting lecturer at Soran University.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
