ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Voters went to the polls on Sunday to cast their vote in Turkey’s local elections, with all eyes set on Istanbul, the “jewel” that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to win away from the opposition.
Since his reelection as president in May last year, Erdogan has been campaigning to bring Istanbul, a city where he served as mayor in 1994, back under the influence of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
The historic city which straddles both Europe and Asia is perceived as being the top prize in the local election, making the winner in the city’s mayoralty race the victor of the elections.
The results of the elections will not only dictate the country’s political power trajectory but also hold the key to potential constitutional reforms and peace negotiations over the Kurdish issue. Reclaiming Istanbul and Ankara would consolidate Erdogan’s grip on power, against the backdrop of his recent statements regarding these elections being his last.
"Istanbul is the jewel, the treasure and the apple of our country's eye," Erdogan said at a rally in the city last week.
A win is crucial for the opposition to stand its ground in challenging the ruling party in the future. A loss would bludgeon the opposition parties into inter-party disarray, in a scenario similar to last year when the opposition’s loss in both the presidential and parliamentary elections instigated inner turmoil within the CHP, ultimately resulting in a change of party leadership in November.
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In the 2019 local elections, AKP allied with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while the CHP was directly supported by the ultranationalist IYI party and indirectly by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), DEM Party’s sister party, who refrained from fielding candidates in the province. This resulted in a historic win for CHP’s Ekrem Imamoglu who handed Erdogan his first defeat in over 15 years. Imamoglu secured the win in a rerun months later.
Analysts predict that an Imamoglu victory would set him up to be the main challenger to the AFP in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2028.
In the 2023 presidential elections, the IYI Party and CHP joined forces to form the Nation Alliance in the hope of defeating Erdogan and the AKP. While the AKP kept the most seats in parliament, the presidential vote entered a second round, ultimately won by Erdogan, despite economic problems and a deadly earthquake.
Today the situation is different. The once united opposition is fractured as the IYI party decided to run independently, while the DEM Party decided to field candidates in every province, including Istanbul and Ankara.
Erdogan pinned his hopes of avenging his worst political defeat in over 21 years in power on former environment minister Murat Kurum, choosing him as mayoral candidate for Istanbul.
The DEM Party fielded MPs Meral Danis Bestas and Murat Cepni as co-candidates, in the attempt to pave a third way in the mayoral race in Istanbul.
Opinion polls indicate that the elections will be a closely contested event. Results vary depending on the affiliation of the pollster to the different sides of Turkey’s political spectrum.
