Can former Turkish PM’s new party lure Kurdish voters?

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Ahmed Davutoglu, the man who spent most of his political life allied with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced on Friday the establishment of a new party, the Future Party (Gelecek Partisi), to challenge the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). 

Davutoglu had been expected to announce the new party ahead of local elections in March, but chose to postpone the launch. Some news agencies speculate he may have come under pressure.

The former PM won a seat in the Turkish parliament in 2001 when the AKP first participated in elections. He later served as then-prime minister Erdogan’s chief advisor from 2003 to 2009. 

When the victorious AKP formed a cabinet in 2009, Davutoglu served as foreign minister before his appointment as prime minister in 2014. Erdogan forced him to step down two years later following policy disagreements. 

The erstwhile Erdogan ally did not mention the president by name at the party launch on Friday, but it was clear who he was talking about.

“As a party, we reject a style of politics where there is a cult of the leader and passive personnel,” he told assembled press. 

Time will tell whether Davutoglu’s new party can put a serious dent in the AKP’s support base. One significant demographic who may be drawn to his ranks are the millions of Kurds in Turkey’s southeast who currently support Erdogan. 

The Future Party’s manifesto mentions Kurdish issue in two places, blaming previous Turkish governments for failing to integrate the Kurds. 

“The Kurdish issue is basically sourced from the lack of democratic rights in our country and the exploitation of these shortcomings,” reads the 142-page manifesto. 

“It is not the existence of Kurdish citizens that created the issue but the fears which were imposed by governments through non-integration in the last century,” it adds. 

Turkey must create the sort of atmosphere where “the Kurds have democratic citizenship and they believe that they are equal and honorable citizens of this country”, the manifesto adds. 

‘Davutoglu is not innocent’

Omer Ocalan, an outspoken deputy for the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), told Rudaw English his party will not announce their official stance on the newly-established party until its agenda is clear. 

However, he said the former PM shares responsibility for the Turkish state’s oppression of Kurds, describing Davutoglu’s reign between 2014 and 2016 as “a great oppression”.

“Davutoglu is not an innocent man when it comes to [his treatment of] Kurdish people. In fact, he has committed many sins,” said Ocalan. 

Davutoglu must first apologize for the “sins” he committed against Kurds before he can seek their votes, he added. 

Othman Ali is a Kurdish analyst who befriended Davutoglu between 1995 and 1998 in Malaysia, teaching at the same university. 

Ali told Rudaw English his co-professor spoke Kurdish on several occasions to encourage Kurds to speak in their mother tongue and “introduced a bill at the parliament which allowed other ethnic groups to speak in their languages, but his target was Kurdish”.

“He supported a political solution for Kurdish issue and he played a key role in the PKK talks with Turkish state in 2009,” said Ali, referring to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – founded by Omer Ocalan’s jailed uncle, Abdullah Ocalan.

The Turkish state and the PKK agreed to a ceasefire in 2013 which lasted just two and a half years. The Kurdish analyst, who lives in Erbil, blamed the PKK for the failure of the ceasefire, which he said forced Erdogan to remove Davutoglu.

Describing his former colleague as “the breaker of the dogma of Kurdish issue” in Turkey, Ali said Davutoglu’s policy paved the way for the HDP to govern some Kurdish provinces. 

Future of Kurdish votes

Ziryan Rojhalati, an analyst for the Rudaw Research Centre, says Davutoglu may be able to lure the AKP’s voters in Kurdish areas, but he is unlikely to win over HDP voters. 

The emergence of the party “will have a significant impact on the future of governance in Turkey, especially on the next Turkish presidential election [in 2023] because even one percent of votes matters in the new Turkish [presidency] system as the rivalry is mostly between two poles,” the analyst said, referring to Turkey’s shift from a parliamentary system to a presidential one in 2018, which handed Erdogan more power. 

The party’s emergence could also embolden Ali Babacan – a former Turkish minister and ally of Erdogan – to go ahead with his plan to announce another new party in the coming days, encouraging Erdogan’s dissidents to speak up. 

“However, the AKP will definitely gain the votes of some Kurdish supporters of the AKP but if Babacan announces his party then most of the AKP’s Kurdish supporters will vote for him. Usually, a few of the HDP votes go to other parties,” said Rojhalati. 

Ocalan agrees with Rojhalati that the Future Party is unlikely to poach HDP voters. 

“I do not think that Davutoglu will make gains in Kurdistan [southeast Turkey]. Babacan may take the AKP votes in some areas,” he said.

Future-HDP alliance?

Ocalan said he does not expect a Future Party alliance with the HDP, as most Turkish parties refrain from making alliances with the pro-Kurdish parties. Turkish officials often view them as the political wing of the PKK. 

However, he said it is too early to say and that discussions need to be had. 

Rojhalati also thinks Davutoglu is unlikely to seek an alliance with the HDP but may look to the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). 

“The AKP and CHP are the main rivals [poles] and other parties gather around these two parties [to form alliances with them],” he said. 

Since Davutoglu has left the door open to potential alliances and appears to be gearing up for opposition, he may prefer striking an alliance with the CHP. “He needs a trump card to impose some of his demands,” Rojhalati added.