High anticipation consumes Turkey ahead of knife-edge election results

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Turkey on Sunday voted in one of its most decisive elections in decades that could see the extension of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two-decade rule, or return to a parliamentary model under his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

High turnout was reported across the country among the 64 million registered voters. Voting closed at 5pm local time, but official final results are not expected until late on Sunday night.

The vote, which coincides with Turkey’s centenary year, is the toughest challenge the country’s longest-serving leader has faced in recent years. Over the past 100 years, Turkey has capitalized on its strategic location to transform itself into one of the greatest power-brokers in the region. Under Erdogan, the country has taken up significant roles in various conflicts, ranging from Syria to Ukraine.

The current president has also asserted Turkey’s position as a military powerhouse, building tanks and drones, worrying its allies in NATO at times.

Desire for democracy

“We have all missed democracy,” Kilicdaroglu told reporters on Sunday after he cast his vote in the Turkish capital of Ankara. “Spring will come to this country.”

Kilicdaroglu and his Nation Alliance, which consists of six parties, form the toughest challenge to Erdogan’s rule in years, putting his grip on power on the line. The leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Turkey’s second-largest party, Kilicdaroglu has vowed to solve the Kurdish question, release political prisoners, and resolve the country’s economic and social crises.

“His main promise is to uphold European Court of Human Rights' judgments. I think it might take some time but many could be released in the near future as courts follow the ECHR verdicts,” Ragip Soylu, Turkey Bureau Chief for the Middle East Eye, told Rudaw English on Sunday about the possibility of critics being released.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has also expressed its support for Kilicdaroglu.

Polls conducted prior to the election showed Kilicdaroglu edging close to Erdogan, raising the question of what a possible post-Erdogan Turkey would look like domestically as well as in its foreign policy approach.

There have been doubts on whether Kilicdaroglu can keep the alliance together in the aftermath of the elections.

“First, there are mayoral elections next year and everyone of them wants to win major cities. Second, there is so much to share in terms of high ranking position within the state,” Soylu said regarding the need to maintain the alliance.

“We will have to see whether he can keep this coalition intact for upcoming years especially when honeymoon ends,” he added.

Experts also suggest that Kilicdaroglu will embark on a less hostile policy towards the Kurds in Turkey, particularly if those in the Kurdish areas vote for him.

"He will get more votes in the Kurdish regions than anyone else,” Guney Yildiz, PhD Researcher at the University of Cambridge told Rudaw English, adding that Kilicdaroglu is aware he will “need to secure the Kurdish vote” ahead of the local elections set to take place next year.

When Erdogan became the president of the country - a ceremonial position at the time - he changed the country’s governing system from parliamentary to presidential through a referendum. This created a one-man rule in the country as it abolished the role of the prime minister. Kilicdaroglu has vowed to return the country to a parliamentary system.

If Kilicdaroglu wins, he will inherit and have to resolve the current economic crisis. “They will focus on returning to an orthodox monetary policy but this would also require a significant depreciation of Turkish Lira,” Soylu said.

Turkey’s inflation rate has been on an alarming rise since late 2021, reaching a 24-year-high 85.51 percent in October, leading to a dramatic surge in prices of essential goods and services in the country. The inflation rate dropped to 43.68 percent in April, but economists believe that the rate will increase again following the elections.

The inflation and consequent rise in cost of living have severely damaged Erdogan’s popularity in the country, whose unorthodox monetary policies sparked the current crisis.

Erdogan believes high interest rates cause inflation rather than slowing it down. In April, he stated that interest rates will continue to drop as long as he was in power.

In terms of foreign policy, continuity is expected. Kilicdaroglu is expected to move closer towards the West but also balance Turkish relations with Russia. However, he accused Russia in recent days of meddling with the elections in favor of Erdogan, warning that he could review his country’s relations with Moscow if he wins.

With regard to Turkish military action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the Kurdistan Region, Yildiz expects a change. Turkey’s military offensives against Kurdish armed groups in the Kurdistan Region and Syria “haven’t yielded significant results and they come at a huge cost for Turkey politically, economically, and militarily.”

Another five years under Erdogan and the future of democracy

Erdogan rose to power on a positive note, praised by many followers for his achievements as mayor of Turkey’s cosmopolitan city of Istanbul. He steered the country towards economic reforms, building infrastructure, and bringing about construction mega-projects. At the start of his rule, he improved ties with Europe to the point where joining the European Union was an option on the table.

However, political upheaval soon emerged, bringing about a different era in Erdogan’s rule over Turkey. The turning point came in 2016 when his crackdown on those he deemed responsible for a failed coup attempt changed Turkish society, causing wide divisions, and concerning his partners in the West.

Erdogan’s popularity also suffered when the country was hit by an economic crisis which led to high levels of inflation and a drop in the value of currency. On February 6, Turkey was rocked by a devastating earthquake which killed over 50,000 people and saw his construction projects crumble to the ground. The government’s response to the tragedy further sparked anger.

Despite the multiple crises, the ruling Justice and Development (AKP) remains popular among conservatives and religious voters in the party’s heartland in central Turkey.

“If Erdogan wins, it will be business as usual, hard to foresee what happens,” Soylu stated. There are concerns about what further steps Erdogan will take to consolidate his grip on power if voted in for another five years as president.

"An Erdogan win will have more significant repercussions for Turkish democracy than foreign policy,” Yildiz stated.

"The next step for Erdogan in dominating the Turkish political landscape will be to try to restructure the opposition, to control who is in the opposition,” Yildiz said, adding that the president may attempt to remove key opposition figures through judicial means, as was the case with jailed Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas.

“There are indications that there might be more crackdowns on LGBT associations since he rallied against them during the campaign in every province,” Soylu warned.

Yildiz further warned that Erdogan will “restructure and reshape the Turkish opposition” and will perceive an election victory as a “confirmation” by the people of his policies.

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