HDP poll loss could mean exclusion from Kurdish peace talks, expert warns

ISTANBUL, Turkey – Turkey’s ruling party and its staunchest backer, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are doing all they can to ensure that the pro-Kurdish  Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) does not succeed in its bid for a parliamentary seat in Sunday’s polls. Yet, an HDP victory would help integrate the Kurds and help the peace process, according to an expert on the Kurdish issue.

Vahap Coskun, a prominent academic in Turkey who works intensively on the Kurdish issue and was a member of the Wise Men Commission formed by Erdogan to help ease Turkish attitudes towards Kurds, said that the HDP entry into parliament would be a significant development.

“It will be a very important development. Since the republic was built, the Islamists and the Kurds were excluded from the system. After the integration of the Islamists took place, the Kurds will also be integrated into the system,” he said. “The legitimacy of the HDP will increase and that will provide a more comfortable atmosphere for the solution process.”

Sunday’s elections are considered historic because it is the first time a pro-Kurdish party is running under its own name, rather than fielding independents. The HDP is fighting to win 10 percent of the votes in order to gain entry to parliament. Its main challenger, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), is campaigning vigorously to keep the HDP out of parliament.

The AKP is aiming for a majority in parliament to make constitutional changes that would make Erdogan the head of government, with near-total powers.

Asked if it was a gamble for the HDP to enter the elections as a party, Coskun agreed.

“It was a risky decision. If it was to enter the elections through independent candidates  it would get 40 deputies for certain. Yet, if the turnout is high -– as much as 85 percent -- they might not be able to pass the election threshold.  If there is a 75-80  percent turnout it would  succeed. That is the reason that President Erdogan is aggressively rallying to increase the turnout. Therefore, it is not possible to know if the HDP will pass the threshold until the last moment.”

Coskun added that the HDP had two campaigning options:  declare its position on the Kurdish peace process or adopt an anti-Erdogan discourse: “The HDP gained a lot of sympathy with its  anti-Erdogan rhetoric, but it is not clear if that will turn into votes.”

HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas has vowed to stand in Erdogan’s way of changing the constitution and giving himself more powers.

Coskun said that the HDP’s failure to win a seat would lead to greater instability: “There will be a problem of representation if a party which owns over 4 million votes won’t be in the parliament; the legitimacy of the elections would be questioned; early election demands will come up; and the mechanisms of the solution process will change.”

He warned that if the HDP is excluded from parliament, it could also be excluded from the peace talks between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), whose leader Abdullah Ocalan is in jail on Turkey’s Imrali  island and whose commanders operate from the Qandil mountain base in the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

“The HDP is acting as a bridge between the government, Imralı and Qandil. I think they are playing a very important role by explaining the process to society.  Yet, as AKP leaders said, the HDP  might be excluded  from the process if it can’t pass the threshold.  In that case the government either would directly talk with Qandil or a monitoring committee will be formed.”