Moscow and Ankara trade barbs as Erdogan threatens Idlib offensive

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Turkey and Russia once again traded barbs on Wednesday after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to attack Syrian regime forces in Idlib. Regime-backer Moscow said such an offensive would be the “worst scenario”.  

Moscow and Ankara signed a de-confliction deal in Russia’s Black Sea resort town of Sochi in September 2018 to reduce violence between and Syrian regime and the armed opposition which controls Idlib. 

Under the agreement, Turkey was permitted to establish military observation posts in the northwestern province, which borders with southern Turkey.

The deal has since crumbled, however, since regime forces – backed by Russian air power – launched an offensive in December against former al-Qaeda franchise Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other allied rebel groups in Idlib and neighboring areas of Aleppo. 

Turkey has been a long-time backer of anti-regime groups since the eruption of Syrian civil war in 2011. It has used these fighters – which include jihadists – as proxy forces against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Afrin in 2018 and in the northeast in late 2019. 

In late January, as the regime advanced into Idlib, Erdogan accused Russia of failing to abiding by its deal. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov fired back earlier this month, claiming Ankara “had taken upon itself an obligation to neutralize terrorist groups” in Idlib, and had failed to abide by the 2018 Sochi deal.

Moscow and Ankara have enjoyed a burgeoning bilateral relationship in recent years and, although backing different sides in the Syrian conflict, were open to cooperation. 

In recognition of this special relationship, Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system despite pressure from its NATO allies. 

Idlib offensive

The Sochi deal has continued to unravel in recent weeks. Turkey’s military observation posts in Idlib came under regime fire in early February, killing 12 Turkish soldiers and a civilian contractor. 

Ankara responded with attacks on regime positions, claiming to have “neutralized” at least a hundred Syrian soldiers. 

Turkey has 12 observation posts in Idlib and has reportedly established three more in recent weeks. Some of these observation posts have been surrounded by regime forces. Ankara has demanded these forces withdraw. 

Erdogan told his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) parliamentary group in Ankara on Wednesday that an Idlib offensive could be imminent.  

“An Idlib operation is only a matter of time. We will not leave Idlib to [the Bashar-al-Assad] regime, which still cannot understand our determination on the issue and to those who encourage the regime. 

“We discussed the issue with Mr [Donald] Trump on Saturday and shared our evaluations with him,” he said, according to the state-owned Anadolu Agency (AA).  

“We never intend to shoulder the burden that the developments in this region would obviously bring to our country. We are determined to transform Idlib into a safe place both for Turkey and the region’s people at any cost,” Erdogan added, referring to a possible wave of refugees entering Turkey.

Turkey’s defense minister Hulusi Akar also ruled out the possibility of a Turkish withdrawal from Idlib. 

“Withdrawing from our observation posts [in Idlib] is out of question,” Akar told reporters before the AKP’s parliamentary group meeting on Wednesday. 

“We expect the parties [in Idlib] to rapidly comply with their commitments under the Sochi deal such that a cease-fire could be achieved and bloodshed can be stopped,” he added. 

Turkey has deployed thousands of troops and masses of military equipment to northwest Syria in recent weeks. Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said Tuesday his country will send more. 

“We will continue the deployment and fortification of troops in the area to ensure the safety of the region and the civilians there,” Kalin told reporters in Ankara. 

‘Worst scenario’

Speaking to reporters in Moscow on Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said a Turkish military offensive in Idlib would be “the worst scenario.”  

“If it is an operation against Syria’s legitimate authorities and armed forces, it will definitely be the worst scenario,” Peskov said.  

Moscow will continue talks with Ankara “to prevent the situation in Idlib from escalating further,” he added.  

The Kremlin spokesperson said Russia lost confidence in the Sochi deal “after militants and terrorist groups launched offensive operations against the Syrian armed forces and Russian military facilities from Idlib’s territory.”

Since the regime launched its offensive in December, some 900,000 civilians have fled to the Turkish border and elsewhere in Syria, including areas held by the SDF, according to UN figures. 

“Hostilities are now approaching densely populated areas. People are on the move in freezing temperatures in search of safety which has become ever more difficult,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement issued by his spokesperson Stephane Dujarric on Tuesday. 

Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, told a briefing on Wednesday that the pleas of desperate Syrians are not being heard. 

“My first concern is for Syrian civilians caught in the fighting, who continue to relay the urgency of their situation and their desperate need for safety. They feel they are not being heard. I appeal once again for full respect for IHL [International Human Law] and for an immediate ceasefire,” he said.