ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The US drawdown in Syria means the Islamic State group (ISIS) could re-emerge within six to 12 months, General Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned a congressional committee in Washington on Wednesday.
Milley and Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper both briefed the Armed Services Committee on US goals and plans in the Middle East to ensure national security and the enduring defeat of ISIS.
“My assessment at this point is that if we do not retain a capability, an intelligence capability that allows us to collect and see and then act with a strike capability on ISIS in Syria then the conditions for re-emergence of ISIS will happen,” Milley told US lawmakers.
“It will take some time. It will probably take maybe six to 12 months, something like that. But ISIS would re-emerge if the United States went to zero,” he added.
The geographical ‘caliphate’ created by ISIS across Syria and Iraq has been defeated by the coalition working with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
However, remnants of the group remain at large – many of them concentrated in the Lower Euphrates Valley, Milley explained.
“In order to provide for the enduring defeat, and working by, with, and through allies and partners, Iraqi Security Forces in Iraq and the SDF in Syria, that enables us to continue to maintain intelligence collection and strike capabilities to continue to rip apart the remnants of what is ISIS,” he said.
“If we fail to do that, ISIS will re-emerge. The conditions will come back, and they will re-emerge as a capable threat to the region and our interest.”
ISIS was declared territorially defeated in Iraq in December 2017 and in Syria in March 2019. However, recent events have caused the group’s remnants to become more brazen.
In Iraq, coordination and cooperation between the ISF and the Kurdish Peshmerga collapsed in October 2017 following clashes, allowing ISIS remnants to capitalize on the security vacuum left in the disputed territories.
This vast no-man’s land stretches from Diyala Province near the Iraq-Iran border to the east all the way to Syria-Iraq border to the west.
In Syria, counter-terrorism operations were going well until October 9, 2019 when Turkey launched its incursion into Kurdish-held northern Syria.
Following months of Turkish threats to attack US-backed Kurdish forces in the area, US President Donald Trump effectively gave Ankara the green light to attack by withdrawing US troops from the Syria-Turkey border.
According to a report by Lead Pentagon Inspector General Glenn A. Fine, the US troop withdrawal directly contributed to the ISIS resurgence.
Speaking to the congressional committee on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Esper reiterated that the US is still bent on the defeat of ISIS through its partnership with SDF and ISF, and have therefore left a residual force in the area.
“The mission remains the enduring defeat of ISIS. We do that through this partnership with the SDF on the ground. The SDF has been a great partner in the sense of providing very capable ground forces. What we provide for them are the enablers, principally the air support and intelligence,” Esper said.
“I think the defeat, if you will, will be hard because it is an ideology. It is hard to foresee any time soon we would stamp it out, but when we get to the point where local police and security forces can handle the actual threat of ISIS activities, then that would be a metric,” Esper added.
“The residual force in Syria right now is not a peacekeeping force. It is a force focused on the enduring defeat of ISIS. They are working closely, day in, day out, with the SDF to perform a number of tasks underneath that overarching goal and strategy.”
US troops returned to Kurdish-controlled areas of northern and northeastern Syria following their initial withdrawal to “secure” local oilfields.
US officials have framed the new policy as an effort to prevent ISIS acquiring revenues by seizing control of these oilfields.
Among the key concerns of Syria watchers is the danger of a mass ISIS escape from the jails controlled by the SDF. Several militants were able to exploit the chaos of the Turkish invasion to break loose.
Milley said there are 24 detention centers and prisons holding ISIS affiliates under Kurdish control.
“They are still under adequate control based on the reporting that I have. There is no risk at this point that I can see of some mass escape or that sort of thing. The SDF clearly has them under control,” he said.
Turkey and its Syrian proxies launched Operation Peace Spring in October with the stated aim of forcing the SDF and its Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) affiliates back from Turkey’s southern border.
Ankara views the YPG as the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – an armed group which has fought a decades-long war for greater political and cultural rights for Kurds in Turkey.
Turkey’s plan was to create a buffer zone some 32 kilometers deep in which to resettle up to three million Syrian refugees currently sheltered in Turkey.
Now Turkey controls a stretch of land between the two formerly Kurdish-held border towns of Sari Kani (Ras al-Ain) and Gire Spi (Tel Abyad), with a depth of 30 kilometers.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Monday he would soon begin settling one million Syrian refugees on this stretch of land.
“Turkey’s objective – and I hesitate to speak for them – but in my discussions with the Turks, their number one concern is Kurdish terrorists, the PKK, coming into Turkey and conducting attacks on the Turkish people. Close behind that is the presence of two to three to four million refugees in Turkey and the ability to sustain that, so their focus is a little bit different than ours right now in that front,” said Esper.
“I think the other thing that we have to watch out for here in the coming months is as Turkey begins to resettle the internally displaced persons within Turkey, I guess two to four, more like three million Syrians. What is that going to cause in terms of disruptions with the Kurds as they move them back into Kurdish areas and what not. There will be some turmoil. I expect as that happens. That is beginning to happen now. I think we are going to watch that very carefully,” the defense secretary added.
