2 months of Operation Peace Spring: what now?
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - October 9 is an unforgettable day for the people of northern Syria who, after years of unrest, thought they could finally build a new life. The first whistle of a brand new war was blown by Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies against Kurdish forces in northern Syria, and the end is still far from sight.
Two months after the ironically-termed Operation Peace Spring was launched, Kurdish officials and commanders continue to accuse Turkey and its proxies of invasion, war crimes and human rights violations, typically in Sari Kani (Ras al-Ain) and Gire Spi (Tal Abyad).
Turkey was able to seize control of Sari Kani and Gire Spi, along with surrounding villages, from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Some villages surrounding Ain Issa and Tel Tamr have also been taken from Kurdish control.
The operation was aimed at driving the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) - the backbone of the SDF – up to 32km out of the Turkey-Syria border region.
Turkey hopes to use the land to establish a “safe zone” in which to resettle mostly Arab Syrian refugees who have fled to Turkey since 2011.
Turkey claims that the YPG poses a threat to its border security as it is considered the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - a designated terrorist organization in Turkey fighting for Kurdish political and cultural rights.
Turkey had been threatening to invade more Kurdish-held areas in northern Syria after it seized control of the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in March 2018 with a greenlight from Russia. This time it was emboldened by US President Donald Trump following the withdrawal of US troops in early October, which has now left Russia the dominant foreign power in the area.
-Despair, betrayal, loss-
The US support for Kurdish fighters in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) - which controlled swathes of Syria and Iraq from 2014 to 2019 - paved the way for Kurds to struggle for a semi-autonomous region in northeast Syria, similar to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
Panicked by the US withdrawal, the Kurds made a military deal with the Syrian regime to prevent further onslaught from Turkey. The US was, and probably still is, seen by Kurdish people and some leaders as betraying the Kurds, leaving a security vacuum in which Turkey could launch its attack.
Turkish vice president Fuat Oktay claimed on Monday that Turkey now controls more than 4,000 square kilometers of land in northeast Syria.
Hulusi Akar, Turkish defense minister, told state-owned Anadolu Agency (AA) on Monday that the length of the controlled areas is about 145 kilometers by 30 kilometers.
SDF spokesperson Mustafa Bali told Rudaw on Sunday that Turkey has launched 200 attacks since its ceasefire deals with both the US and Russia in late October, which required the SDF to withdraw from the area. He added that Turkey has gained control of 80 villages in this period.
-Displacement-
Fearing oppression by Turkish troops and their Syrian proxies, most of the Kurdish residents of the occupied areas fled southward to safer SDF-controlled areas. Bali told Rudaw that so far about 400,000 people have been displaced from both Sari Kani and Gire Spi.
“Sari Kani and Gire Spi were occupied. A new genocide took place. Demographic changes were made. Not a single Kurd, Assyrian, or Yezidi is left in the region. Arabs also were forced to flee their homes. Nearly 400,000 displaced persons from Sari Kani and Gire Spi have been sheltered across schools in Kobane, Raqqa, Hasaka, and Qamishli,” Bali told Rudaw, calling it a “very dangerous demographic change.”
Thousands of their residents have since fled to the Kurdistan Region.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a late November report that pro-Turkish militiamen prevented Syrian Kurds from returning to their homes. Instead, they “looted and unlawfully appropriated or occupied their property.”
“Executing individuals, pillaging property, and blocking displaced people from returning to their homes is damning evidence of why Turkey’s proposed ‘safe zones’ will not be safe,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at HRW.
However, Turkey claims that it is bringing life back to northern Syria by “voluntarily” moving Syrians from Turkey to the “safe zone” and providing basic services. Kurds fear that the resettlement of these Syrian refugees, from further south in the country, could cause ethnic cleansing.
A Monday statement from Turkish defense ministry claimed that Turkey has completed repairs of power stations in the two towns aimed at “meeting the basic needs of war-weary locals.”
“Repairs began on the 22nd of November for the Mabruka electricity transformer station which feeds the south of the M4 highway and the Operation Peace Spring area,” the ministry said.
“The provision of electricity from the Tishrin Dam to the Operation Peace Spring area was established after meetings that took place with Russian military officials in Ayn Isa,” it added.
-What now?-
Clashes have continued between Turkish-backed groups and the SDF, albeit with less ferocity than before.
Turkey continues its joint patrols with the Russian military, with 13 joint patrols held so far in Darbasiya, Kobane, Qamishli and Malikiya (Derik) areas.
Turkey and the SDF have blamed one another for violating Turkish ceasefire deals with both the US and Russia, and they both blame the two guarantors for not abiding to their promises.
“They must see the degree of the grudge Turkey holds against the Kurdish nation. We also want the ceasefire guarantors to see the reality on the ground. The US and Russia must see what is happening still on the ground,” Mustafa Bali told Rudaw on Sunday.
-Political unity?-
The Turkish incursion has provided an opportunity for Syrian Kurds to promote political reconciliation.
The ruling Democratic Union Party (PYD) has recently showed an openness toward other Kurdish parties, especially the opposition umbrella group of the Kurdish National Council (ENKS).
They have had several meetings in the past few weeks, with SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi SDF leading the talks to create Kurdish unity in Rojava.
The ENKS is a group of opposition parties close to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the ruling party in the Kurdistan Region. It is yet to recognize the PYD-led governance in Rojava.
The ENKS is also a member of the pro-Turkish Syrian opposition, and this fact could harm talks with the PYD.
Officials and members of the ENKS usually live in Kurdistan Region, Turkey and Western countries. Some have been banned from entering Rojava and have been jailed for their criticism and alleged links to Turkey.
Both sides have made a few deals in the Kurdistan Region, moderated by KDP leader Masoud Barzani, but they have not been implemented.