There is smuggling taking place out of Baghouz: Syria researcher

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Some Islamic State (ISIS) fighters are likely being smuggled out of al-Baghouz because the group was well-funded and knew this area of Syria would be their last bastion east of the Euphrates, argued Elizabeth Tsurkov on Friday. 

"There is smuggling taking place out of Baghouz," said Tsurkov, "and also out of areas in the past which were controlled by ISIS.

The alleged smuggling takes some veteran ISIS members to Iraq and elsewhere  "areas controlled by Syria in northern Syria," the fellow at the Forum for Regional Thinking, based out of Washington, D.C.

"Some leaders did not wait for ISIS to collapse; they saw the winds are changing and just smuggled themselves out to Iraq, to Syria in other parts of the country," she claimed.

"This smuggling is happening," she said. "From what I understand the numbers are quite small."

This is due to the high cost of smuggling, so most low-level and remaining ISIS fighters cannot afford to pay.

"We're seeing people coming out [of Baghouz] and literally starving to death," said Tsurkov. "Most of the people who are or were trapped in Baghouz cannot afford the smuggling that is several 1,000s of dollars. 

"Also the price apparently varies on whether the fighters are local or foreign. Locals find it easier to disguise themselves ... so it's easier for the smugglers to move them," she said.

The foreign fighters stand out and are more difficult to smuggle, thus demanding higher prices, she claimed.

"It seems corrupt individuals in the SDF are involved with this..." claimed Tsurkov without providing evidence.” However, this is something natural that would happen in any warzone.

"But I would say that most of the people who are the leadership of the organization, I suspect that they would prefer to smuggle themselves out if they have the financial capability to smuggle themselves out rather than dying while fighting for 'the cause' or surrendering themselves."

ISIS was a wealthly organization, Tsurkov argues, because they robbed people and businesses, sold Yezidis as slaves, controlled oil, took taxes, etc...

"Currently, I think those who are smuggling themselves out had that money before they retreated into this final pocket because right now they don't have access to oil, they can't engage in trade or anything like that," she said. 

The Middle East research fellow was asked about the number of ISIS fighters who remain in Baghouz because estimates have wildly varied to under 100 to in the 1,000s. 

"No one has a good estimate," added Tsurkov.

Underestimation by the US-led coalition was due to "extensive ISIS tunnels," she claims, so drones were unable to provide good estimates.

She didn't rule out that ISIS simply has built underground shelters or that it could have constructed longer tunnels which are near the Iraq border.

"Clearly there is a problem with intelligence collection in this area," she said.

Tsurkov, who recently visited Iraq, agrees that ISIS has lost territorial control of the caliphate, but the group has "branches in more than 30 countries."

"The question is whether local governments and regimes are willing to tackle the conditions that brought about the rise of ISIS," she said on the possibility of an ISIS resurgence in Iraq because locals will see no difference in the role of government or another extremist group.

Tsurkov was a guest on The Washington Perspective with Rudaw reporter in Washington, D.C.