Under ISIS' shadow, US troops leave behind a power vacuum in northern Iraq

QAYYARAH AIR BASE, Iraq—The Italian air force officer slid open the metal door, sending a gust of rippling wind through the black NH90 transport helicopter, and training his Gatling gun at the prairies below. An American general and his entourage sat in the back.

He had eased comfortably as we flew over the Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Iraq. But the wind intensifies as we entered areas under the flag of the federal government — including factions hostile to the Americans.

The second Italian officer on the opposite side failed to make his gun operational as the rotating seat got stuck. For around 30 seconds as the aircraft descended toward the walls that surround Qayyarah-West air base, the aircraft and the Chinook helicopter that was flying ahead of us had no protection.

When deploying troops to areas where hostile forces can—and have—managed to strike and fade away into hiding, a moment of vulnerability could be deadly.

That insecurity is precisely the reason why the US-led coalition is withdrawing its troops from three strategic airbases in the country: first Qaim Airbase, then Qayyarah West, then the K1 Airbase in Kirkuk.

Now, as the Iraqi elite bicker over the formation of the next government to rule a country reeling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, locals and Iraqi army officers familiar with the terrain fear the worst. The regrouping Islamic State (ISIS) remains a real threat. In March alone, ISIS militants killed two American soldiers in the rugged mountains around Makhmour, not far from their base at Qayyarah. Subsequent rocket attacks, suspected to be carried out by Shia militia allied with Iran killed two American soldiers and one British personnel.

Inside the sprawling Qayyarah-West base where an American flag was still flying, Major Adam Kirschling of the Combined Joint Task Force fighting ISIS went around doing the final inspection before the Iraqi generals arrived for a ceremony to hand over the base.

"This is the climax of that time, for me personally, being here is a historic moment," Major Kirschling said after the hand-over ceremony.

Hailing from Wisconsin, he has served as the deputy commander of the Qayyarah-West base, after having deployed to Iraq three times; in 2006, 2010 and 2019. He is confident that the Iraqi forces will be able to maintain pressure on ISIS and that the historic debacle of June 2014 – when the Iraqi army retreated from Mosul – would not repeat itself.

"Having the opportunity strategically to consolidate the coalition footprint really shows that the Iraqi security forces are in a place right now that they are able to continue to defeat Daesh with assistance from us," Major Kirschling told Rudaw English. The base played a critical role in wearing down ISIS' defenses in Nineveh province during the battle to wrest Mosul from their control from late 2016 and the first half of 2017.

But it is difficult not to feel a sense of foreboding in the air. Three Iraqi contractors are busy loading a container onto a truck, and the moment they see journalists and a TV camera, they run for cover. One dips into the puddle in the back of the truck to cover its license plate with mud. "Please don't film us, we have families," another pleads. In the background, a C-17 aircraft is preparing to take off to Erbil with troops and equipment.

After a disastrous decade marked invasion, civil war and sectarian division, American forces have remained in Iraq since late 2014, at the invitation of Iraqi Security Forces stretched thin by the fight against ISIS. But their welcome is becoming overstayed, and now invokes mixed reactions among their Iraqi hosts.

Officials of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – many of whom have traded their battle fatigues for suits and taken up positions in parliament – say that the time has come for the US to leave Iraq. They have only been emboldened by popular outrage at the killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) elite Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, and the PMF's most senior operational commander Abu Mahdi Muhandes in early January at Baghdad's airport.

The simmering tension between Iran and the United States since Washington withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 threatens to turn Iraq, once again, into a bloody battlefield. Both countries enjoy considerable influence – albeit from different sections of the society. But while most of the PMF Shia paramlitaries are adamantly against the American and coalition presence, many in the Iraqi army and the elite Counter Terrorism Forces feel that the American firepower and expertise is needed to counter the threats of simmering insurgency and to counter the increasing clout of the PMF in all aspects of Iraqi life.

"Absolutely not," said a senior Iraqi intelligence officer based in Qayyarah when I asked him if he was happy that the Americans were leaving.

"Even the Shiite officers [in the army] want the Americans to stay, we need their help," the officer who had worked closely alongside the coalition forces in the air base added. The officer requested anonymity so that he could speak freely.

"Daesh is still a real threat here, they fired rockets at the base up to two months ago," the officer said, pointing to the runway, before adding "one rocket even landed on the runway a few months back."

The intelligence officer's at Qayyarah described the Americans’ usefulness pragmatically: "With the Americans, if you identify a Daesh location you tell them, they have their own birds in the sky, they check the location quickly, inform Baghdad and boom — they hit the target. With the Iraqi Airforce it is different. It has to go to the military intelligence, and through the bureaucracy, and by the time they decide to attack, the militants have escaped."

Two other intelligence officers Rudaw English spoke to at K-1 base in Kirkuk a few days later also expressed concerns about the implications of a security vacuum in the north of the country after the departure of the Americans and other Coalition forces.

"I can only speak from a personal point of view," said the military intelligence officer at K-1 base on Sunday. "I don't want them to leave." Another officer on whose insignia written "military intelligence" whispered "no, we don't want them to leave," as the Iraqi and American officers prepared for the handover ceremony in K-1.

The politics behind the ISIS threat

The Iraqi military has been tracking ISIS holdouts that remain active in the rugged mountains of Qarachokh overlooking the town of Makhmour in Nineveh province, and in Hamrin mountains which crisscross Kirkuk, Salahaddin and Diyala provinces. They hide out in caves and crevices during the day, and descend to the plains at night, terrorizing the locals and extorting them for food and money.

Since the day ISIS was declared defeated in Iraq at the end of 2017, dozens of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, PMF, and Iraqi army officers have perished in these perilous lands. No longer capable of holding a claim to the vast state administration it once had, ISIS has returned to its roots as an underground insurgency.

ISIS is able to take advantage of political fissures between Kurdish and Iraqi forces in the long-disputed territories. Since the days Saddam Hussein and the post-invasion Coalition Provisional Authority, the status of lands surrounding Kirkuk was never permanently settled, leading to a vacuum of uncertainty of who controls them.

In 2014, when ISIS swept through Iraq, Peshmerga secured Kirkuk and the surrounding areas. But in October 2017, the federal forces including the PMF and their Iranian advisors pushed the Peshmerga out in the aftermath of the abortive referendum to declare Kurdish independence.

When I asked whether if the coordination between the Kurds and Federal forces was enough to confront the threat of Isis, a Coalition official uttered a long and deep "Noooo," before measuring himself: "It could always be better," he then added, qualifying.

On the day we flew to the Qayyarah airbase on March 26, ISIS issued the 227th edition of its propaganda weekly magazine, Al-Naba. In it, the group boasted claims to a list of attacks on Iraqi security forces including in Anbar, north of Baghdad, and south of Mosul near Qayyarah base in the preceding weeks.

Hundreds of ISIS militants are still hiding in the rugged mountains of Makhmour, terrorizing and extorting the villagers at the foot of the mountains. Peshmerga forces based on top of the mountains say there is hardly any coordination between them and the Iraqi forces.

"The little coordination that exist between us is based on our own personal contacts, not through official channels," a senior Kurdish Peshmerga official based on the mountain told Rudaw English.

When two American soldiers were killed in early March after a large scale operation between the Iraqi forces and the coalition, the Peshmerga looked on from top of the mountains, just watching the battle unfolding before their eyes.

PMF officials in Baghdad feel elated at the departure. "It is an agreement and it is good that they are leaving," Sayyid Ali Hosseini, an official from the Badr organization, a Shia militia allied with Iran told Rudaw English on Tuesday from the town of Tuz Khormato in Salahaddin province. "We are able to maintain pressure on Daesh, as a matter of fact we cleared the area around Tuz Khormato two days ago."

Asked if they need the American support to fight Daesh, Hosseini smirked and said "If Americans don't help Daesh, of course we are able to fight them."

Mohammad Mohie, the spokesperson for Kataeb Hezbollah – main nemesis of the American forces in Iraq – rejected the US statement about the base transfers and claimed that the US has other objectives in Iraq.

"The United States understands that the Resistance units in particular the Kataeb Hezbollah are a strong barrier against their plots," Mohammad Mohei told Al Alam TV, an Iranian funded Arabic channel on Monday, referring to the PMF. "The [Resistance units] are trying to reduce their influence and their military presence completely."

The anti-ISIS coalition attributes the transfer of bases to Iraqi security forces "success in their fight against ISIS" and while the recent moves are to "relocate and consolidate personnel and equipment," the coalition is committed to "supporting our partners in their fight against Daesh."

Contrasting their jubilance at the Americans' departure, there is unease among the locals who live in ISIS' shadow. In the space they leave behind, paranoid conspiracy theories spin that the return of ISIS draws near in the town of Makhmour, where 24 year old former American contractor Bassam Ali lives.

"People say this is a new plan for another Daesh take over," Bassam told Rudaw English. "People are very concerned about the uncertainty, I worked with the American army before and I am scared."

Bassam — not his real name — tells me that many in the town say that the same Iraqi army officers who fled Mosul when ISIS attacked in June 2014 are now reorganized in different units and are based in Nineveh province. The locals have no faith in the security forces ability to withstand the militants.

"Daesh are descending from the mountain and roaming around the plains in groups," he said, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS perceived to be derogatory by the militants.

"Not only people do not want the Americans to leave, they want them to be on the streets of Makhmour in order to feel secure," Bassam said.

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