Iran-Iraq relations important to Raisi, Chatham House scholar tells Rudaw

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Prioritising regional ties, including with Iraq is “hugely important” to Iran’s president-elect Ebrahim Raisi, according to a Chatham House scholar who spoke to Rudaw in an exclusive discussion on Tuesday. 

Sanam Vakil and Mahmoud Pargoo, a social scientist and research fellow at the Alfred Deakin Institute, spoke about Iran’s recent presidential election and the implications on its future foreign policy options.

“I think the thinking among the conservative establishment and the security establishment in Iran is that Iran’s regional relationships have been hugely beneficial to Iran through this period of maximum pressure,” said Sanam Vakil, the deputy director of the Middle East North Africa programme at the UK-based Chatham House. 

“The prioritisation of regional ties, particularly in Iraq, is hugely important” to Iran’s president-elect, she added.

Regarding Iran’s relationship with Iraq, Vakil also hinted to continued tensions between the Iraqi public and the Iranian state. 

“But I do think that Iran has a problem that it is aware of, that its relationship, particularly in Iraq, is predatory. That there is domestic opposition, evident through protests and the burning of Iranian consulates…criticism of Iran at the street level."

Iran-backed militias in Iraq are widely suspected of killing and threatening activists and protesters across the country, which has led to demonstrators attacking Iranian consulates in the past. 

The ultraconservative chief justice, who is close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will take over from outgoing President Hassan Rouhani in August. Raisi received 17.8 million votes, 62 percent of the more than 28 million ballots cast on Friday.

His victory has been heavily criticised by international human rights organizations, claiming he should be investigated for crimes against humanity.

US-Iran relations 

Washington imposed a maximum pressure campaign sanctions regime on Iran after former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear accord in 2018, in a bid to force Tehran to renegotiate a new, broader deal that would also include its ballistic missile program and regional activities.

“This mutual distrust from both sides, it creates a situation that nobody on both parts have a clear imagination. What do we expect from each other?  Whenever they engage, it’s all because of emergencies and necessities. They are not ready,“ Pargoo said of US efforts to revive the deal.

Raisi has already ruled out a meeting with US President Joe Biden, who took office in January.