Abdul-Mahdi’s task was never a simple one, inheriting a country wracked by war, political division, mass displacement, crumbling infrastructure, and rampant corruption.
Now, just seven months into the job, the PM is fighting for his career as powerful Shiite figures question his progress.
Ali al-Sistani, the highest Shiite religious authority in Iraq, voiced his dissatisfaction with the government’s achievements in his Friday sermon.
Moreover, one of the kingmakers of Iraq’s politics, the firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, warned the PM he has just 10 days to fill the remaining vacant posts in his cabinet, else he could be removed.
Abdul-Mahdi is yet to appoint ministers to head the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, and Ministry of Justice due to competition and disputes between the political parties.
Sadr’s Sayirun alliance, the biggest bloc in the Iraqi parliament, may soon force Abdul-Mahdi to appear before MPs to account for his government’s shortcomings.
One bloc in particular, Abadi’s Nasr (Victory) Alliance, appears to be capitalizing on Abdul-Mahdi’s woes.
Abadi
Appointed after Nuri al-Maliki stepped down in 2014, Abadi labored through four turbulent years in office, presiding over the war with the Islamic State (ISIS).
Continuing the policy of his predecessor, Abadi deprived the Kurdistan Region of its budget share in a dispute over independent oil sales.
After the Kurdistan independence referendum of September 2017, Abadi imposed an embargo on the Region’s airports and deployed federal troops to seize Kirkuk and other disputed territories from the Peshmerga.
His ruthless approach caused Erbil-Baghdad relations to sink to their lowest ebb in years.
Abadi broke away from Maliki’s State of Law Coalition to run in Iraq’s May 2018 parliamentary election as head of the Nasr (Victory) Alliance – designed to capitalize on the defeat of ISIS.
As a result, Abadi and Maliki split the Dawa Party vote, causing it to lose power for the first time in 15 years.
Nasr came in third place, followed by State of Law in fourth.
Abadi was removed from office in part because of his poor public approval ratings following a brutal state crackdown on anti-government protests in Basra and other southern provinces that summer.
He had also lost the support of Iran-backed militia chiefs, who saw him as America’s preferred candidate.
Abadi has remained active in the Iraqi parliament ever since – becoming a thorn in Abdul-Mahdi’s side.
Budget
According to a Kurdish MP in the Iraqi parliament, Nasr MPs are leading the effort inside parliament to stop Abdul-Mahdi sending public sector salaries to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
“The MPs of the Nasr faction are working on this and have turned it into a weapon against Adil Abdul-Mahdi,” Bakhtyar Shaways, a Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) MP in the Iraqi parliament, told Rudaw.
Baghdad agreed to resume the salary payments in the 2019 budget bill, despite the KRG’s failure to uphold its end of the bargain to send oil to be sold through Iraq’s state oil marketing agency SOMO.
One of the clauses of the bill stipulates the KRG must hand over 250,000 barrels of oil per day in exchange for its budget share.
Abadi is upset with the Iraqi PM for sending salaries without Iraq receiving the oil in return, Shaways said.
“That is why, in every session of the parliament, Abadi’s MPs raise the agreement between the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad and ask where the 250,000 barrels of oil that are supposed to be sent are,” he added.
Dana Jaza, a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) MP in the Iraqi parliament, told Rudaw the issue is likely to come to a head once the new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is established in Erbil.
“There are attempts on the part of some blocs to destroy [Abdul-Mahdi’s] government,” Jaza claimed.
Abdul-Mahdi is planning to visit the Region at the end of the week, sources told Rudaw.
“This issue has to be resolved because there are many attacks against Adil Abdul-Mahdi, and he has asked for help,” Shaways said.
Abadi’s return to frontline politics is likely to be fraught with challenges. He made many enemies during his time in office, particularly among the Kurds.
Kurdish parties hold 57 seats in the Iraqi parliament and play a prominent role in the federal government. As a result, they have a de-facto veto over who gets to become PM and who doesn’t.
After the May 2018 election, Kurds refused to back Abadi for a second term. It is likely they would do the same again if Abdul-Mahdi is toppled.
