The battle for Mosul: when and how?
Ubaid Rashavayee
With all eyes on Mosul, there is much speculation over the timing of an expected assault to retake Iraq’s second-largest city from the Islamic State (ISIS).
Planners are busy laying out a scheme for liberating Mosul; Kurdish President Massoud Barzani has said the Peshmerga will play only a supporting role in the fight for the city.
Mosul officials warn that the fight for Iraq’s second-largest city, captured by the Islamic State (ISIS) during its romp across a third of Iraq last June, will be a heavy one.
Although ISIS seized Mosul within 24-hours – after rolling over the collapsed Iraqi Army -- many predict that the fight to retake it will require tough street-to-street fighting. Mosul is the second-largest ISIS stronghold, after its capital of Raqqa in Syria.
Currently, a large number of former Mosul police, army members and tribesmen are gathered in the Kurdistan region, undergoing training and preparation for recapturing the city. The trainees are provided with weapons from the Iraqi army and the United States.
According to information obtained by Rudaw, they number more than 10,000 men, who prepared to take on ISIS. Although Iraqi leaders have called for the support of Peshmerga in the fight for Mosul, Barzani has said the Iraqi government and the people of the city are mainly responsible for the city’s recapture, and that Kurdish forces will play only a supporting role.
The people of Mosul “are awaiting the Peshmerga troops and Iraqi army,” said Ismat Receb, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party unit that was located in Mosul prior to the ISIS takeover. “The city has turned into a big jail for its dwellers. They cannot leave the city. They are not allowed to reach out even via telephone,” he said.
Political observers agree that former Iraqi premier Nouri al-Maliki’s policies towards the Sunnis played a major role in the easy takeover of Mosul by ISIS. Many of the Sunnis not only refrained from standing against ISIS, they even supported the militants.
Bashar Kiki, chairman of the Mosul Provincial Council, said there are two scenarios for the fight for Mosul. “It will either be a very severe street fight, or it will be an easy takeover. ISIS will be pushed out as easily as it took the city.”
The KDP official holds a similar view. “The people of Mosul welcomed ISIS. Now they regret it. I foresee that they will not support ISIS when the attack on Mosul is launched,” Receb told Rudaw.
The Arab refugees based in Kurdistan Region’s Erbil and Duhok provinces are prepared to take up arms, forming a force of some 4,000.
“I am in Baghdad now where I meet with a number of Iraqi government officials to discuss an array of issues, among them the issue of a salary for these 4,000 men,” Kiki said. “I will also discuss the issue of the three oil protection forces battalions who have not been paid in the past six months. Most of the members of the three battalions are Kurdish,” he said.
“One hundred and fifty men from the Arab Sunni tribes are fighting ISIS along with the Peshmarga troops. They should also step up to take part in the Mosul fight” Kiki told Rudaw.
According to a member of the Mosul Provincial Council, the fight for Mosul will not happen before Spring.
“The attack will not take place until Spring. The fight will be a very heavy fight and the city will be ruined. ISIS has brought a fight to the people of Mosul,” the councilman told Rudaw.
“Before, the Americans had their conditions for partaking in the fight for Mosul. They believed Mosul has to be liberated first, then Shingal. They probably no longer hold this view,” he added, speaking to Rudaw on condition of anonymity.
Receb said he believes ISIS has realized its grip on the city is drawing to an end.
“They are moving the valuables from Mosul to the other side of the border, into Syria. They are looting the city,” he claimed.
Receb said that, for the Peshmerga, the priority is to retake from ISIS Kurdish lands that are part of the so-called “disputed territories” that are also claimed by Baghdad.