Will Adil Abdul-Mahdi continue as PM?

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Six weeks into Adil Abdul-Mahdi's resignation as prime minister, Iraqi political parties have failed to come to terms and agree on an individual to replace him, increasing the possibility that the caretaker leader will be given the chance to continue as PM.

Abdul-Mahdi resigned from his post in late 2019 following months of protests against the government, but he remains in a caretaker role as the Shiite blocs – which hold the most seats in the parliament – have failed to agree on a replacement that is also acceptable to the protesters.

In addition to US-Iran tensions which soured in the wake of the killing of influential Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force, anti-government protesters have not given up on their demands calling for grassroots reforms to the country’s political system.

Protests demanding jobs, basic services, and action against corruption began in Baghdad on October 1 before spreading nationwide.

An independent technocrat, Abdul-Mahdi took office in October 2018 following lengthy government formation talks.

"There are two options before Iraq; first, giving confidence to Adil Abdul-Mahdi once again. Second, agreeing on someone by all the parties," Rebwar Taha, a Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) MP in Baghdad, told Rudaw on Monday.

"Electing Adil Abdul-Mahdi to the post of premier might possibly happen and may be the easiest way to resolve this matter at this stage," he added.

Kurdish and Iraqi parties have conflicting points of view on giving confidence to Abdul-Mahdi, with some believing it is a good solution for the existing turmoil engulfing Iraq. Others cite his willingness to step down, adding that he has been rejected by Iraqis on the streets.

"The idea of granting confidence to Adil Abdul-Mahdi to nominate him for the post of prime minister has not been put forth yet," Adnan Fayhan, a Bina Coalition MP said. He however, did not comment on supporting or rejecting Abdul-Mahdi.

After the PM's resignation, the Bina Coalition- as the biggest coalition in the parliament- was assigned to submit the name of a nominee to fill the position.

A Sairoon bloc MP, for his part, believes that that the current atmosphere in Iraq requires the caretaker PM to remain out of power.

"Though this subject depends on the decision of the political parties themselves, I believe the current ongoing situation of Iraq is not apt for Mr. Adil Abdul-Mahdi to once again nominate himself for the post of the prime minister," Riaz Masoudi told Rudaw.

PM Mahdi's visit to Erbil

The outgoing prime minister visited the Kurdistan Region's Erbil and Sulaimani cities on November 1.

Some pundits and activists believe that his visit is related to his efforts to stay in power by guaranteeing the support of Kurdish parties.

"Adil Abdul-Mahdi's visit to Erbil is part of his efforts to stay in his post," Ahmed Haji Rashid, head of the Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal) said. "But this man led Iraq to face a terrible situation."

Rashid believes that neither Iraqi nor Kurdish parties should throw their support behind Abdul-Mahdi, warning that his re-election will exacerbate the already unstable situation in Iraq.

Musana Amin, head of the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) bloc in the Iraqi Parliament echoed the idea that Abdul-Mahdi’s Kurdistan visit was a tactical move, but does not think he should resume power. 

"I believe part of his visit was because he wants to be re-elected...but I do not think he is the right person to be given confidence,"  Amin added.

"It is a shame for him to return and even protesters will not accept him," he added.

However Bashir Haddad, second deputy speaker of the Iraqi Parliament says his visit to Erbil was not to garner support to stay in power, but to foster unity among Iraqi factions.

"To continue in his post, he does not need to ask any sides to support him because if the parties continue to fail in agreeing on someone, he will automatically stay in his post," Haddad said.

Who is the newest candidate for PM?

Though no names have accepted by the parliamentarians and the protesters, head of the KIU bloc Amin says that Mohammed Tofiq Allawi is the latest person who has come forward to try his luck.

Allawi, a former minister and lawmaker, is said to be one of the candidates for the position on the ticket of the Bina Coalition.

I think I have a good chance [to become the next prime minister]," he  told Rudaw last week. 

"He is appropriate for the post and I like him," Amin said. "He might be able to persuade the protesters, the parliamentary blocs and the Bina Coalition."

The Komal MP Rashid agrees that Allawi is suitable.

Allawi is not the first name to be put forward by the coalition. 

In late December, Iraqi president Barham Salih refused the nomination of Asaad al-Aidani,  and even offered his resignation in response to pressure to appoint the coalition's candidate as PM.

The Bina coalition later blasted Salih’s reaction as a  "clear violation of  the Iraqi constitution."

"As the Bina Coalition, we already submitted our nominee, but the president violated the constitution and does not recommend the nominee of the biggest parliamentary bloc to form the new cabinet," a Bina Coalition MP told Rudaw. 

Reporting by Zryan Haji