Poll predicts 29% turnout in Iraq election
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Turnout for Iraq’s October 10 parliamentary election is expected to be a record low, with a recent poll predicting just 29 percent of eligible voters will cast ballots.
The random survey conducted by the Kulwatha Center polled 3,600 voters from all provinces. Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they intend to vote and 14 percent are still undecided.
The election was called ahead of schedule to meet the demand of anti-government protesters, but interest in the vote is low. Several parties from across the spectrum have announced they will not participate. Parties and voters are questioning the legitimacy of the vote in an environment where powerful militias operate outside of government control, activists and election candidates are threatened, and the electoral commission and political elites are accused of fraud.
The vote will take place with electronic voting and counting, but 74 percent of those surveyed by Kulwatha Center said they don't think new technology will reduce fraud and 64 percent said they support a manual recount of votes.
The survey was conducted between June 6 and August 14 and results were published on Sunday.
The United Nations mission in Iraq announced last week that a group of 130 international experts and around 600 supporting staff will be monitoring Iraq's upcoming elections, the largest ever dispatched by the UN to monitor elections.
Eighty-three percent of those surveyed said they are not satisfied with the monitoring role of the United Nations.
Other polls predict similar low turnout. Munqith Dagher, founder of Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies, estimates turnout will be around 30 percent. Speaking at a webinar put on by the Arab Gulf State Institute in Washington on September 7, Dagher said he has observed a trend showing a constant “decline in the support of the election among Iraqis.”
A poll by al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies conducted in March found just over 60 percent of respondents intended to vote. Pollsters surveyed 1,770 people from across the country in random phone interviews.
Turnout has steadily declined since 2005, from 79 percent to just 45 percent in 2018.
The random survey conducted by the Kulwatha Center polled 3,600 voters from all provinces. Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they intend to vote and 14 percent are still undecided.
The election was called ahead of schedule to meet the demand of anti-government protesters, but interest in the vote is low. Several parties from across the spectrum have announced they will not participate. Parties and voters are questioning the legitimacy of the vote in an environment where powerful militias operate outside of government control, activists and election candidates are threatened, and the electoral commission and political elites are accused of fraud.
The vote will take place with electronic voting and counting, but 74 percent of those surveyed by Kulwatha Center said they don't think new technology will reduce fraud and 64 percent said they support a manual recount of votes.
The survey was conducted between June 6 and August 14 and results were published on Sunday.
The United Nations mission in Iraq announced last week that a group of 130 international experts and around 600 supporting staff will be monitoring Iraq's upcoming elections, the largest ever dispatched by the UN to monitor elections.
Eighty-three percent of those surveyed said they are not satisfied with the monitoring role of the United Nations.
Other polls predict similar low turnout. Munqith Dagher, founder of Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies, estimates turnout will be around 30 percent. Speaking at a webinar put on by the Arab Gulf State Institute in Washington on September 7, Dagher said he has observed a trend showing a constant “decline in the support of the election among Iraqis.”
A poll by al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies conducted in March found just over 60 percent of respondents intended to vote. Pollsters surveyed 1,770 people from across the country in random phone interviews.
Turnout has steadily declined since 2005, from 79 percent to just 45 percent in 2018.