ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Ninety-four days after Iraqis went to the polls on October 10, government formation talks are continuing apace along sectarian and political factions to determine the country’s president and prime minister following Sunday’s confirmation of its parliamentary speaker.
The 2005 Iraqi constitution dictates that when the election results are confirmed, as they finally were shortly before the new year, a motion is set in place for the winning parties to form a government. Within 15 days of the ratification of results, the current president calls on parliament to elect a speaker and two deputies by an absolute majority, chaired by its eldest member - Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, who collapsed in the first meeting of the parliament this week, delaying proceedings.
On Sunday, during the chaotic first session, former governor of Iraq's majority-Sunni Anbar province and leader of the Taqadum Alliance of 37 seats, Mohammed al-Halbousi was consequently re-elected for a second term as speaker of Iraq’s parliament, along with deputies Hakim al-Zamli and Shakhawan Abdullah.
Rifts among Shiite politicians, many of whom boycotted the session, were clearly exposed when the Sadrist politicians - wearing white sashes to symbolically represent death shrouds - voted with Sunnis and Kurds to elect Halbousi and his deputies over the Shiite Coalition’s top nominee, al-Mashhadani.
Despite opposition towards Halbousi among pro-Iran influential Shiite politicians and militias, however, his position is secured for the new term. Now, the parliament is required to elect a president from nominated candidates by a two-thirds majority.
Nominations for Iraq’s president opened on Tuesday morning, with the deadline for submissions on Thursday. The timings of Iraq’s constitution mean that the election of the president should therefore take place no later than the end of February 8, 2022.
According to a long-standing agreement, the three main leadership positions in the Iraqi government are divided among Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites; who make up around 65% of Iraq’s population.
Sunnis get the parliamentary speaker, as they have, Kurds get the presidency, and Shiites get the premiership.
On Monday, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) declared their backing of Barham Salih to maintain his position of president. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) have not confirmed who they’ll vote for, but an agreement among Kurds themselves follows that the PUK determines the candidate for Iraq’s Presidency and the KDP maintains the presidency of the Kurdistan Region.
The Iraqi constitution also states that the largest bloc in the parliament has the right to choose the new prime minister, currently Mustafa al-Kadhimi, which the president will task with naming within 15 days of his election. The prime minister-elect will then have 30 days to name a cabinet, and the government is in place.
Iraq’s influential Shiite cleric and leader of the election-topping Sadrist Movement, 47-year-old Muqtada al-Sadr whom himself did not run for office, pledged on Tuesday to proceed with the formation of a national majority government, suggesting a coalition including Sunnis and Kurds that is in stark contrast to the wishes of his Shiite rivals, the Coordination Framework.
The Sadrist Movement was the kingmaker of the October 10 election, securing 73 seats out of the possible 329 seats requiring a majority of 165, and Sadr has made no secret of his desire to establish a cabinet containing the election’s largest winners from across the political landscape.
In Kurdistan, the final election results saw the KDP led by Masoud Barzani gain 31 seats, and the PUK take 17 plus the support of an independent candidate. The New Generation movement won nine seats.
The KDP has held meetings with Sadr’s delegation in the Kurdistan Region over recent weeks, although the Movement's preferred candidate for prime minister has not yet been explicitly expressed. Last month, the KDP also met with a delegation representing the Coordination Framework in Erbil, headed by former Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The Coordination Framework, made up of Iran-allied Shiite groups such as Fatih Alliance, led by Hadi al-Amiri, which won just 17 seats in October, appears to favour al-Maliki, who is also the leader of the State of Law Coalition which holds 33 seats, as their candidate for prime minister.
While Maliki would be deeply unpopular among the Sadrists, however, they have as yet not put forward another suggested candidate to replace Kadhimi, who has expressed a desire to remain in office.
On Wednesday, former Iraqi prime minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi issued a statement on the first parliament session, encouraging the Coordination Framework to not consider the election of the speaker and his two deputies as a defeat, making it clear that the Framework are continuing their efforts to form a government.
The split in approach between the Sadrists and Coordination Framework evolves around the basic issue that the losers to the Sadrists are keen to remain in power without forming a coalition, whereas the larger Shiite bloc are open to forming a government with its Sunni and Kurdish allies, without the Coordination Framework.
Adding that the “door is open to some of those we still think well of,” Sadr also promised on Tuesday that there would be no return to sectarian violence in Iraq, having previously vowed to disband militias in the country. Sadr’s former militia, Mahdi Army, was disbanded in 2008, although he maintains control of Sarayat al-Salam.
Iranian-allied militias such as Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) played a key role in the brutal suppression of protests originating in the country in October 2019, among young Iraqis frustrated at rampant corruption among the political elite. Over 600 protesters were killed, and the earlier elections were called in response. Supporters of the militia have since protested against the election results, with violence escalating to a drone attack on the prime minister’s home in November.
Whether Iraq’s political class maintains the trend of militias, violent authoritarianism and potentially escalating violence that it has promised against remains to be seen over the next few weeks and months, as the outcome of an election determined by fewer than 50% of those eligible to vote in the country concludes.
