Will Kurdish ministers keep their jobs in new Iraqi cabinet?

ERBIL, Kurdistan – Mohammed Tawfik al-Allawi, Iraq’s prime minister designate, is expected to announce his new cabinet in the coming days. The government reshuffle has raised questions over the future of three Kurdish ministers.

Mass anti-government protests which began in October forced Adil Abdul-Mahdi to resign as prime minister late last year. Allawi, a former communications minister, was tasked by President Barham Salih on February 1 with forming a new cabinet.

Allawi is under intense pressure to form an inclusive government which satisfies Iraq’s powerful political blocs and the protesters. 

Although he has the backing of parliament’s two biggest blocs – Fatih and Sayirun – protesters have already rejected Allawi as part of the old establishment they wish to overturn.

Sources close to the prime minister designate say Allawi plans to replace the entire cabinet – potentially as a means of showing the protesters he is making a clean break with the old order.

“Allawi, 15 days since his tasking, will present his cabinet before the parliament. He will not wait for the end of the one month deadline because Iraq’s conditions are very unstable and cannot endure further postponement,” Mohammed Khalidi, head of the Sunni Bayariq al-Khair bloc in the parliament and a figure close to Allawi, told Rudaw.

Allawi has not held formal talks with the parliament’s Kurdish, Sunnis, or Shiite blocs. The Shiite Sayirun and Fatih have both said they will not impose their party members on Allawi and say they would like to see an independent cabinet. 

Potential candidates for ministerial posts have yet to be announced, but early reports suggest the entire cabinet will be overhauled. 

“No minister in the current Iraqi government cabinet, including the Kurdish ministers, will be kept because the ministers, like [the caretaker PM] Adil Abdul-Mahdi, have resigned,” Khalidi said.

The Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites have all given Allawi a free hand to choose his cabinet, just so long as Iraq’s ethnic components each get a measure of influence in his government, he added.

The Kurds themselves, predominantly represented by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), held three ministries in Abdul-Mahdi’s government, including the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Construction, Housing, Municipalities, and Public Works, and the Ministry of Finance.

Faris Issa, head of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) mission to Baghdad, told Rudaw Allawi “has plans to visit the Kurdistan Region, but no time has been set as of now”. 

“This week, the Kurdistan Region’s president and prime minister will attend the Munich Security Conference. That is why the PM-designate may not visit the Kurdistan Region this week,” Safeen Dizayi, head of KRG’s Foreign Relations Department, told Rudaw. 

Allawi has however already spoken to both on them over the phone, Dizayi added.

If Allawi does choose to enter talks with the Kurds, then the process of forming his cabinet may take longer, Khalidi told Rudaw.

Kurdish parties hold 58 seats in Iraq’s 329-seat parliament, but are not a unified force. Besides PUK and KDP, smaller factions including the Change Movement (Gorran), New Generation, Komal, and the Kurdistan Islamic Union have formed what they call the “Group 15” within the parliament, uniting their 15 collective seats.

Group 15 MPs have indicated they aim to negotiate with Allawi separately from the KDP and PUK.

“It is set for us to meet Mohammed Tawfik Allawi, but we won’t ask for ministries. We will rather ask him to undertake reforms, fight against corruption, chaos, militias, supervise clean elections, preserve the rights of the people of Kurdistan, its salaries, budget, and the rights of its farmers,” Muthana Ameen, a KIU MP and Group 15 member, told Rudaw.

There is nevertheless speculation the Group 15 may try to secure a ministerial post. What is less clear is whether the Kurds will receive a fourth ministry, or whether Group 15 will take a position at the expense of the KDP and PUK.

Rebwar Taha, a member of the PUK’s parliamentary bloc, speculated that at least one current Kurdish minister may retain his cabinet post.

“I don’t think the KDP and PUK shares will be decreased. The ministries given to Kurds in the previous cabinet have to be given to Kurds in the new cabinet as well, even if temporarily,” Taha told Rudaw.

The decision to change what ministries are held by Kurds ultimately rests with the Kurdish parties themselves, but Iraqi President Barham Salih, the KRG PM Masrour Barzani, and Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani are all currently in talks regarding the matter, Taha added.

Arafat Karam, a former KDP MP and current supervisor of the Baghdad portfolio for KDP leader Masoud Barzani, told Rudaw “it is the decision of the politburo whether they will change the ministers or not”.

It may be difficult however for Kurdish parties to nominate a non-partisan Kurdish candidate for Allawi’s “independent” cabinet, Khalid Shwani, the KRG minister for federal affairs, told Rudaw last week.

An independent Kurdish candidate without the backing of a strong parliamentary bloc may also find themselves squeezed by powerful opponents, Shwani warned.

Ahmed Kinani, a Fatih MP, told Rudaw the Kurds are an important partner and their fears must be addressed in the new cabinet formation.

“Kurds have a strong presence in Baghdad. They have to be given a message of assurance because they are fearful now, and one of their fears is [the oil-for-budget] deal with the cabinet of Adil Abdul-Mahdi. This fear has to be relieved,” Kinani said.

The Fatih MP was referring to an arrangement between the governments of Erbil and Baghdad whereby the KRG would deliver a quota of 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil to the central government in exchange for a share of the federal budget. The arrangement allows the KRG to continue selling its remaining oil independently. 

If the Kurdish and Sunni parties attempt to impose their candidates on Allawi, Kinani warned the Shiite blocs could renege on the free hand they have given the prime minister designate and nominate candidates of their own. 

By Ziryan Haji, translated by Mohammed Rwanduzi