Up the creek without a creek: What’s causing the Middle East water crisis?
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – On the banks of the Tigris River in the 25th century BC, the Sumerian city states of Lagash and Umma had a long-running dispute over a stretch of farmland between their territories.
Umma repeatedly failed to pay rent for the land it used and Lagash retaliated by diverting water upstream, ultimately leading to conflict. The hostilities were resolved by what is believed to be the first water agreement ever signed – indeed perhaps the first treaty of any kind.
Millennia later, however, in the same region, water is still a disputed commodity.
The Middle East is an inherently dry zone. It has been in severe drought for at least seven years and climate change is making the situation worse.
The water crisis is exemplified by the struggle to control the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers that cradle ancient Mesopotamia and have nourished the land, peoples, and mythology of this region.
The two rivers have their sources in southeast Turkey, about 80 kilometers from each other.
The Tigris flows some 1,900 kilometers through southeast Turkey, takes a brief diversion into Syria, and then runs down the length of Iraq.
The Euphrates takes a more meandering 2,800-kilometre route, travelling further west in Turkey before turning south through Syria and eventually into Iraq where it joins the Tigris before spilling into the Persian Gulf.
Fifty years of rapid development of infrastructure, coupled with climactic factors and exacerbated by conflict, have taken their toll on these waterways and the lands they feed.
“Climate change and the depletion of water resources destroy the fertility of the soil and turn it into barren land that no human group can live on,” Iraq’s Minister for Water Resources Hassan al-Janabi told the UN Security Council in a special session on July 11 dedicated to the threat of climate change.
Water scarcity is a problem that seeps into all parts of society and across borders. It is impossible to separate it from regional and national relations and conflicts.
When wells and springs dry up, villagers migrate to the cities where problems of poverty, unemployment, and social tensions are amplified, creating discord. This happens at community and national level, and risks conflict.
Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran are separately trying to exert sovereignty over their water resources, but with no overarching strategy for the Euphrates and Tigris and the wider pool of water resources, a crisis is imminent.
Turkey
Turkey is transforming its southeast with the massive Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) – the largest and costliest project in the country’s history that includes the construction of 22 dams, 19 hydropower plants, and irrigation projects covering 1.7 million hectares of land across nine provinces.
A cornerstone project of GAP is the Ilisu Dam. Built on the Tigris River on the border of Mardin and Sirnak provinces, the dam will create a 10.4 billion cubic meter reservoir covering 313 square kilometers. It will become a major power source, intended to generate 3,800 GWh annually.
The project will also have a significant impact on Turkey’s neighbors.
Turkey stopped filling the Ilisu dam reservoir in early June at the request of Iraq, which is facing water shortages. The Mosul dam on the Tigris recorded water levels at a 10-year low. Ankara agreed to temporarily postpone filling the reservoir and promised to allow sufficient water to flow downstream when it resumes filling its reservoir.
Turkey’s ambassador to Iraq said at the time the decision to stop restricting the river flow “shows once again that we can put our neighbor’s needs ahead of our own”.
Syria
The Euphrates River is a major water source for Syria – accounting for 70 percent of its surface water.
Hafez al-Assad, the father of Syria’s current president, used access to water for political gain. When he came to power in 1970, he encouraged agricultural self-sufficiency to the point that by 2000, when his son took the reins of power, almost 90 percent of Syria’s water was being spent on agriculture.
The policies of the father, however, played a role in the near downfall of the son.
Repeated droughts throughout the 1990s and 2000s led to reduced crop yields, the death of up to 85 percent of livestock in some areas, and mass migration. By the late 2000s, some 1.5 million people had moved into Syria’s cities from the countryside.
Analysts say this water shortage played a major role in the socio-economic tensions that sparked Syria’s ongoing civil war.
Within the conflict, different groups have sought to control water resources – turning water into a weapon. The United Nations accused Damascus of committing a war crime with the bombing of water infrastructure. The regime alleges rebel groups have deliberately contaminated water supplies. ISIS blocked water flows when it controlled the Taqba dam on the Euphrates. Kurdish authorities accuse Turkey of restricting the flow of the Euphrates into Rojava.
This year, farmers in Hasakah expect their worst wheat harvest in half a century leading to fears the country will face a grain shortage this year.
Iraq
Iraq is heavily dependent on water sources that originate from beyond its borders. Yet it uses significantly more water than its neighbors in Syria and Turkey – largely because of poor infrastructure after decades of conflict, outmoded irrigation, and the prevalence of water-intensive crops.
About 70 percent of Iraq’s water comes from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers.
In the 1950s, Iraq began dam and canal projects to manage the resource and control flooding. The first dam completed was Dukan, on the Little Zab River in Kurdistan.
Like Syria, Baghdad has used water in conflict. The regime of Saddam Hussein built canals to drain Iraq’s famous marshes in an attempt to dry out rebels. Post-Saddam, the government has sought to reverse this cultural and environmental catastrophe, though its efforts are hampered by Turkey’s GAP.
This summer, Iraq’s agriculture ministry called for a temporary ban on water-intensive crops like rice, corn, sesame, and sunflowers because “the quantities of water needed for these cereals are not available”.
Protests about water shortages amongst other grievances in southern Basra province this summer have turned deadly.
Iran
Neither the Euphrates nor the Tigris pass through Iranian territory, but the country is part of the larger river basin. Rivers like the Little Zab and the Sirwan flow from Iran into Kurdistan and then drain into the Tigris. Wetlands in the south of the country depend on the Tigris.
Iran is facing a nationwide water crisis.
Like Syria, Iran sought to be agriculturally self-sufficient after the 1979 revolution. It has achieved this to some extent. In June, the minister of agriculture announced Iran would not have to import any wheat this year. But it has come at a cost.
Iran has heavily depleted its aquifers – the accumulated water of thousands of years of rainfall.
Zayandehrood River in the center of the country has dried up. In the northwest, Lake Urmia, the largest saltwater lake in the world, has lost 95 percent of its volume – 80 percent in just the last 30 years.
Lake Hamoun, on the border between Iran and Afghanistan has dried up. Officials in Kabul have accused Iran of supporting the Taliban in exchange for damaging dams on the Helmand River that feeds the lake.
With dry wells and drinking water rations, Iranians are angry, accusing the government of mismanaging water resources. Protests about water shortages this summer have turned deadly.
The government is racing against time to solve the water crisis.
It is trying to desalinate water from the Persian Gulf, but this is an expensive option and unsustainable in the long term, and has built new dams in its more water-rich areas.
Dams on the Little Zab and Sirwan Rivers have dramatically affected the Kurdistan Region’s water supply. Iran and Iraq have seven agreements on cross-border rivers, but none of them addresses the Sirwan and Little Zab rivers that are vital to the Kurdistan Region and that feed the Tigris River.
Is time running out?
Today, trans-boundary water is governed by the UN Watercourses Convention of 1997, but it has only been signed by just 39 states. Under the convention, nations are obligated to respect and equitably share their neighbors’ water resources. Syria and Iraq have signed. Turkey and Iran have not.
Iraq, Turkey, and Syria have made bilateral deals on sharing the water, but there is no final agreement between all three on their shared rivers. They continue to frequently blame each other for water problems.
Dams feature prominently in their strategies, each of them desperate to hold onto what water they can. But experts warn dams are not environmentally sustainable as they damage downstream ecosystems and the sea, which depends on the influx of fresh water to counter salinization.
Dams and the creation of reservoirs have also lead to more water loss. The flow of the Euphrates has dropped by nearly half over the past 50 years as a result of evaporation caused by the 32 dams along its length, coupled with heavy agricultural use.
With climate change, rainfall will decrease across the Middle East and higher temperatures will mean more evaporation, worsening the already precarious situation.
“The natural system has been changed,” said water engineer Ali Hassanli, associate professor at the University of Kurdistan-Hawler.
He believes the countries of the region are among the “least prepared” for global climate change. “That’s a very big problem,” he says.
But hope is not lost. The water crisis can be managed, if governments work together to share the resource and usage is based on an understanding of how natural systems work.
The Middle East is susceptible to water problems, “but it does not mean that we won’t be able to manage it. If we manage – definitely we would be able to overcome many of these problems,” said Hassanli.
Umma repeatedly failed to pay rent for the land it used and Lagash retaliated by diverting water upstream, ultimately leading to conflict. The hostilities were resolved by what is believed to be the first water agreement ever signed – indeed perhaps the first treaty of any kind.
Millennia later, however, in the same region, water is still a disputed commodity.
The Middle East is an inherently dry zone. It has been in severe drought for at least seven years and climate change is making the situation worse.
The water crisis is exemplified by the struggle to control the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers that cradle ancient Mesopotamia and have nourished the land, peoples, and mythology of this region.
The two rivers have their sources in southeast Turkey, about 80 kilometers from each other.
The Tigris flows some 1,900 kilometers through southeast Turkey, takes a brief diversion into Syria, and then runs down the length of Iraq.
The Euphrates takes a more meandering 2,800-kilometre route, travelling further west in Turkey before turning south through Syria and eventually into Iraq where it joins the Tigris before spilling into the Persian Gulf.
The path of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Photo: Rudaw
Fifty years of rapid development of infrastructure, coupled with climactic factors and exacerbated by conflict, have taken their toll on these waterways and the lands they feed.
“Climate change and the depletion of water resources destroy the fertility of the soil and turn it into barren land that no human group can live on,” Iraq’s Minister for Water Resources Hassan al-Janabi told the UN Security Council in a special session on July 11 dedicated to the threat of climate change.
Water scarcity is a problem that seeps into all parts of society and across borders. It is impossible to separate it from regional and national relations and conflicts.
When wells and springs dry up, villagers migrate to the cities where problems of poverty, unemployment, and social tensions are amplified, creating discord. This happens at community and national level, and risks conflict.
Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran are separately trying to exert sovereignty over their water resources, but with no overarching strategy for the Euphrates and Tigris and the wider pool of water resources, a crisis is imminent.
Turkey
Turkey is transforming its southeast with the massive Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) – the largest and costliest project in the country’s history that includes the construction of 22 dams, 19 hydropower plants, and irrigation projects covering 1.7 million hectares of land across nine provinces.
A cornerstone project of GAP is the Ilisu Dam. Built on the Tigris River on the border of Mardin and Sirnak provinces, the dam will create a 10.4 billion cubic meter reservoir covering 313 square kilometers. It will become a major power source, intended to generate 3,800 GWh annually.
The project will also have a significant impact on Turkey’s neighbors.
Turkey's Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). Photo: AA / Rudaw
Turkey stopped filling the Ilisu dam reservoir in early June at the request of Iraq, which is facing water shortages. The Mosul dam on the Tigris recorded water levels at a 10-year low. Ankara agreed to temporarily postpone filling the reservoir and promised to allow sufficient water to flow downstream when it resumes filling its reservoir.
Turkey’s ambassador to Iraq said at the time the decision to stop restricting the river flow “shows once again that we can put our neighbor’s needs ahead of our own”.
Syria
The Euphrates River is a major water source for Syria – accounting for 70 percent of its surface water.
Hafez al-Assad, the father of Syria’s current president, used access to water for political gain. When he came to power in 1970, he encouraged agricultural self-sufficiency to the point that by 2000, when his son took the reins of power, almost 90 percent of Syria’s water was being spent on agriculture.
The policies of the father, however, played a role in the near downfall of the son.
Repeated droughts throughout the 1990s and 2000s led to reduced crop yields, the death of up to 85 percent of livestock in some areas, and mass migration. By the late 2000s, some 1.5 million people had moved into Syria’s cities from the countryside.
Analysts say this water shortage played a major role in the socio-economic tensions that sparked Syria’s ongoing civil war.
Within the conflict, different groups have sought to control water resources – turning water into a weapon. The United Nations accused Damascus of committing a war crime with the bombing of water infrastructure. The regime alleges rebel groups have deliberately contaminated water supplies. ISIS blocked water flows when it controlled the Taqba dam on the Euphrates. Kurdish authorities accuse Turkey of restricting the flow of the Euphrates into Rojava.
This year, farmers in Hasakah expect their worst wheat harvest in half a century leading to fears the country will face a grain shortage this year.
Iraq
Iraq is heavily dependent on water sources that originate from beyond its borders. Yet it uses significantly more water than its neighbors in Syria and Turkey – largely because of poor infrastructure after decades of conflict, outmoded irrigation, and the prevalence of water-intensive crops.
About 70 percent of Iraq’s water comes from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers.
In the 1950s, Iraq began dam and canal projects to manage the resource and control flooding. The first dam completed was Dukan, on the Little Zab River in Kurdistan.
Like Syria, Baghdad has used water in conflict. The regime of Saddam Hussein built canals to drain Iraq’s famous marshes in an attempt to dry out rebels. Post-Saddam, the government has sought to reverse this cultural and environmental catastrophe, though its efforts are hampered by Turkey’s GAP.
This summer, Iraq’s agriculture ministry called for a temporary ban on water-intensive crops like rice, corn, sesame, and sunflowers because “the quantities of water needed for these cereals are not available”.
Protests about water shortages amongst other grievances in southern Basra province this summer have turned deadly.
Iran
Neither the Euphrates nor the Tigris pass through Iranian territory, but the country is part of the larger river basin. Rivers like the Little Zab and the Sirwan flow from Iran into Kurdistan and then drain into the Tigris. Wetlands in the south of the country depend on the Tigris.
Iran is facing a nationwide water crisis.
Like Syria, Iran sought to be agriculturally self-sufficient after the 1979 revolution. It has achieved this to some extent. In June, the minister of agriculture announced Iran would not have to import any wheat this year. But it has come at a cost.
Iran has heavily depleted its aquifers – the accumulated water of thousands of years of rainfall.
Zayandehrood River in the center of the country has dried up. In the northwest, Lake Urmia, the largest saltwater lake in the world, has lost 95 percent of its volume – 80 percent in just the last 30 years.
Zayandehrood River has completely dried up. Photo: Rudaw
Lake Hamoun, on the border between Iran and Afghanistan has dried up. Officials in Kabul have accused Iran of supporting the Taliban in exchange for damaging dams on the Helmand River that feeds the lake.
With dry wells and drinking water rations, Iranians are angry, accusing the government of mismanaging water resources. Protests about water shortages this summer have turned deadly.
The government is racing against time to solve the water crisis.
It is trying to desalinate water from the Persian Gulf, but this is an expensive option and unsustainable in the long term, and has built new dams in its more water-rich areas.
Dams on the Little Zab and Sirwan Rivers have dramatically affected the Kurdistan Region’s water supply. Iran and Iraq have seven agreements on cross-border rivers, but none of them addresses the Sirwan and Little Zab rivers that are vital to the Kurdistan Region and that feed the Tigris River.
Is time running out?
Today, trans-boundary water is governed by the UN Watercourses Convention of 1997, but it has only been signed by just 39 states. Under the convention, nations are obligated to respect and equitably share their neighbors’ water resources. Syria and Iraq have signed. Turkey and Iran have not.
Iraq, Turkey, and Syria have made bilateral deals on sharing the water, but there is no final agreement between all three on their shared rivers. They continue to frequently blame each other for water problems.
Dams feature prominently in their strategies, each of them desperate to hold onto what water they can. But experts warn dams are not environmentally sustainable as they damage downstream ecosystems and the sea, which depends on the influx of fresh water to counter salinization.
Dams and the creation of reservoirs have also lead to more water loss. The flow of the Euphrates has dropped by nearly half over the past 50 years as a result of evaporation caused by the 32 dams along its length, coupled with heavy agricultural use.
With climate change, rainfall will decrease across the Middle East and higher temperatures will mean more evaporation, worsening the already precarious situation.
“The natural system has been changed,” said water engineer Ali Hassanli, associate professor at the University of Kurdistan-Hawler.
He believes the countries of the region are among the “least prepared” for global climate change. “That’s a very big problem,” he says.
But hope is not lost. The water crisis can be managed, if governments work together to share the resource and usage is based on an understanding of how natural systems work.
The Middle East is susceptible to water problems, “but it does not mean that we won’t be able to manage it. If we manage – definitely we would be able to overcome many of these problems,” said Hassanli.