Sectarian war and Iraq’s gradual breakup

WASHINGTON -  Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) de facto foreign minister Falah Mustafa Bakir makes a case for an independent Kurdistan in the 7th conference of the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA) conference in Washington as experts warn of disintegration of Iraq over ethno-sectarian boundaries.

"People in Kurdistan are following the events in Catalonia in Scotland and elsewhere, wherever there is a talk about referendum," the top Kurdish diplomat said last week. "Go to Erbil, Sulaimani and Duhok, tell them where are you from, they say Kurdistan," he added.

"What we have seen in the past few years, Baghdad is pushing us out of Iraq. Baghdad is not attracting Kurds to Iraq."

According to the KRG minister, Kurds have lost all sense of loyalty to Iraq due to the bad policies by Baghdad. "Although they may carry an Iraqi passport and travel, but they still tell you, they are from Kurdistan."

Dr. Michael Knights, an Iraq expert and fellow in the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy believed that the current conflict in Iraq has taken an ethno-sectarian shape and a real federalism could be a solution to keep the territorial integrity of Iraq.  "If you draw a map of where the front lines are as I have done it so many times- they (wars) look very ethno-sectarian—In many places, in most places (clashes) conform almost exactly to the major sectarian groups," he said.

"The real nature of this conflict in Iraq and what we are looking at is violent secessionism on sectarian lines as it happens. And the flipside to that (secessionism) in the term of solution for what we see in Iraq these days is very strong federalism probably on the ethno-sectarian lines," he added.

Minister Bakir also emphasized that a centralized Iraq is unacceptable for the Kurds and the Kurds should be the master of their own fate and considered as equal partners in Iraq. "If Iraq is to succeed, it has be equality, justice and genuine partnership --Kurds, Shias and Sunnis enjoy their rights.  We don't want to see an Iraq that succeeds at the expense of Kurds and Kurdistan."

The KRG official commented on the unchanged mentality of governance in Baghdad, where despite regime changes, Kurdish rights are still being sidelined.

"Baghdad used to control (politics and economy in all Iraq) and it wants to continue to control. For us, Baghdad is the same Baghdad. It’s not different when the Sunnis control Baghdad or the Shias control Baghdad. Because it means that we are denied of our rights," Bakir said.

According to Dr. Knights, Shia's hard position on revenue sharing and security decision-making could break up Iraq eventually, if they don’t adopt more conciliatory policies.  

"If anyone that breaks Iraq, if anyone that chooses to break up Iraq, it will be the Shia and they can do it in a heartbeat -- If they mishandle the current revenue sharing discussions with the Kurds. If they mishandle and choose to take a hard (position) on things like decentralization, security decision-making if they fail to resolve Sunni provinces as they liberate them. Then they (Shias) break Iraq," he explained.

The Iraqi government has stopped providing KRG with its shared national revenue for the last eleven months. No deal has been reached between Erbil and Baghdad despite Kurdish-Shia negotiations and Kurdish leaders have warned that Kurdistan will take the path of independence if Baghdad continues to withhold the budget.

"The only thing that holds Iraq together as a unit to fight against its ethno sectarian fractures is Basra's oil money ... if that money stops coming from Baghdad for many of those people, there is no reason to be in Iraq any more particularly if its run by a Shia government or an anti Kurdish Arab government,” Dr. Knights said. 

After the US led invasion in 2003, the Kurdish leadership decided to become a part of the new experience in Iraq, where Kurds were to be considered as equal partners. But Kurdish officials continue to say that Baghdad has marginalized the Kurds and refuses to implement the Iraqi constitution voted by over 70% of the Iraqis in 2005.

"We went to Baghdad, We were heavily engaged in order to build a better Iraq, a future for us within Iraq. Therefore we wanted to strengthen principles of federalism, of sharing the power and wealth in that country. We meant it and wanted it because our leadership is realistic, pragmatic and we do understand where we live. Our neighbors are neither Switzerland nor Belgium nor Germany," said Minister Bakir.

According to KRG official, English and other languages have replaced Arabic for Kurdistan Region’s younger generation.

"I have to be honest with you. My generation is better than the generation that comes after me. At least I can speak some Arabic, but the new generation doesn’t speak Arabic and don't want to learn Arabic. They very much learn English, some of them are learning Turkish, some of them are learning Farsi,” he maintained.

The Kurdish minister reasoned that the new Kurdish generation are learning other languages as a way to keep away from the center. “Because Baghdad is not doing what London is doing to its Scotland," referring to the more sovereign powers British government has given to Scotland and will yield more in the future.