ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraq’s upcoming elections could mark a turning point in regional dynamics as Iran’s influence wanes with early signs of flexibility shown among Iran-backed militias, a prominent Middle East analyst said Tuesday, expressing hope for a unified Kurdish front in Baghdad and progress in government formation efforts.
"I think when we look at the four capitals that the Iranians boasted that they control, they've lost Lebanon, they've lost Beirut, they've lost Damascus. They're not going to lose Sana'a anytime soon,” Michael Knights, senior fellow at The Washington Institute, told Rudaw’s Nwenar Fatih. “Iraq and Iran are closely tied together, so Iraq is the place where the change can happen.”
Over the years, Western policymakers have raised concerns over a so-called "Shiite crescent," stretching from Tehran through Baghdad and Damascus to the Golan Heights.
Iraq is preparing for parliamentary elections tentatively scheduled for October, amid concerns over voter apathy, political fragmentation, and regional instability. Kurdish parties are positioning themselves to strengthen their role in Baghdad, while questions around governance, legitimacy, and electoral fairness continue to dominate the political landscape.
“With [the] Iraqi elections in October 2025, we could see a very significant change in the government in the same way we saw after the 2021 elections, the Iran-backed factions lost those elections. Unfortunately, they still ended up running the government. This time around, let's make sure that doesn't happen,” Knights said.
The upcoming vote comes as the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework consolidates its position as the leading Shiite force, further weakening Kurdish and Sunni influence in federal politics. The bloc's rise has made the return of influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr increasingly unlikely.
“Iran is also potentially going to face the return of Muqtada al-Sadr in these elections. And it may also face a broader coalition than we had last time,” Knights said.
Sadr’s bloc had emerged victorious in the 2021 elections and entered an alliance with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which won 39 seats in the Kurdistan Region’s most recent elections, and the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance to form a “national majority” government that would exclude rival factions. However, after repeated failed attempts to form a government, Sadr withdrew from politics and ordered his MPs to resign from parliament, paving the way for the Coordination Framework to take power.
In the Kurdistan Region, the KDP and its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), are currently in negotiations to form the new KRG cabinet, with PUK leaders repeatedly stressing the need to work in partnership with the KDP to establish a robust governing mechanism.
In January, Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and PUK leader Bafel Talabani met to discuss government formation talks.
"When you look at some of the key leadership meetings between Masrour Barzani, Bafel Talabani, when you look at the discussions going on around government formation in the Kurdistan Region, I feel encouraged. I feel like there's a bit of pragmatism and realism that is there between the two different Kurdish sides," Knights said.
The new US administration under Donald Trump is also “very fond of the Kurds” and wants to help the Kurdistan Region and protect it as a hub of American investment, according to Knights.
"If that can be kept going and if they form a government and if we get back to the old strategic agreement, then perhaps the Kurds can go into the 2025 elections in Iraq as a united bloc,” he said.
