Extremists gain ground amid Middle East turmoil: Former diplomat

The former US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Schenker, said in an interview with Rudaw on Saturday that extremist groups like the Islamic State (ISIS) and al-Qaeda are becoming more active in the Middle East. With the region preoccupied with the conflict in Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine, he said: “There's no state really to go actively after these groups.”

Below is the full transcript of the interview. The text has been edited for clarity.

Rudaw: Mr. Schenker, the United States does not want Israel to target Iran's nuclear facilities. At the same time, Biden announced yesterday that the United States is also not in favor of Israel targeting Iran's energy resources. Why?

David Schenker: I think it's pretty clear that the United States does not want a full-scale regional war. It's concerned that if Israel targets the nuclear facilities, somehow there will be higher potential not only for more Iranian missiles going to Israel but Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Iraqi, Iranian-backed militia in Iraq firing into Israel, more Houthi rockets going into Israel, and the remnants of Hezbollah firing more rockets into Israel, and somehow the United States getting dragged into this. I think the Biden administration is largely wrong. But the other thing is that Israel requires probably to be able to really degrade this nuclear program and hit these three facilities, that are located in the mountains, that it would need the assistance of the United States. And that it would be better to coordinate with the United States. And 30 days before the US election, that is not going to happen.
 
In the recent past, we have seen that Israel has not followed the United States on many issues. While the United States called for a ceasefire and de-escalation, Israel did not heed these calls and increased its hostilities. Do you think in this case, in responding to Iran, Israel will listen to the United States or not?
 
No, Israel is absolutely going to attack Iran. No country would accept being targeted once by missiles by Iran. Israel has now been attacked twice. Israel will not allow this to be normalized somehow. And just because Iranian missiles did not do much damage and, in fact, actually only killed a Palestinian, this time is the only death reported from the Iranian strike; Israel will not allow this to go without retaliation, to send a clear message to Iran that this type of behavior will not be tolerated. Israel has been under attack by Iran for several decades via its proxies in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and as well as in Gaza.

So Israel will clearly respond. I think it's just a question of whether it goes after energy infrastructure, whether it hits the nuclear, whether it goes after other civilian infrastructure or goes after Iranian military installation, IRGC. Iran said it targeted Israel's Mossad headquarters, an Air Force base, and its facility in Damona in the Negev Desert. Israel could hit any similar type of targets in Iran. In the United States, the Biden administration has asked Israel to - quote, unquote - “be proportional” in its response. I don't really know what that means. Should Israel send 180 ballistic missiles to Iran? I think they will choose their target based on what they see is appropriate and effective.

With all the turmoil in the region, once again, how much concern does the US have that the escalation of this conflict might provide an opportunity for an organization like ISIS to regroup, considering that although it is currently weakened, we shouldn’t forget that ISIS still has thousands of militants, according to US assessments?

There's always an opportunity for groups like ISIS. You know, these failed states, like the ones that Iran helped to fail, like Syria, like Lebanon, like Yemen. These are all, I think, fertile ground for ISIS. There's no state really to go actively after these groups. We've seen the reconstitution in a way in recent weeks, reports of Al-Qaeda reconstituting, Al-Qaeda opening a chapter. In Gaza, we see ISIS is looking to do operations, and [we] have seen increasing operations in Iraq in recent months. I do not know if that is because of what is going on in Gaza or just because there is a lot more room with countries that are preoccupied with other things. But I anticipate that ISIS will continue to try and attack Western targets, will try and attack Israel, and of course, will try and attack their own governments in the Middle East. I think this is standard. We saw reports that ISIS tried to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Austria a few weeks ago. So I think that this is something that is likely and is being anticipated right now.

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