Upcoming elections to shape Iraq’s future amid shifting regional dynamics: Ex-minister

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Former Iraqi minister of planning and prominent Sunni politician Nouri al-Dulaimi stated that Iraq is at a critical juncture due to shifting regional dynamics, anticipating that the 2025 legislative elections will reshape the country’s political landscape.

Speaking with Rudaw, Dulaimi explained that since October 7, 2023, “a political earthquake” has rocked the region, “altering regional alliances and Iraq’s trajectory."

The Palestinian Movement Hamas launched a large-scale incursion into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing more than 1,170 people, according to Israeli figures. Israel responded with a massive offensive in Gaza that lasted for 15 months, claiming the lives of more than 46,000 people, mostly civilians, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

A day after the Hamas attack, on October 8, a conflict erupted between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, as Hezbollah launched a “back-up front” from the Lebanese side to relieve pressure on its Palestinian allies in Gaza. The war continued until November 27, when the two sides reached a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in Syria, a coalition of opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on December 8 toppled the regime of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia with his family.

Observers viewed these developments as setbacks for Tehran since Assad, Hamas, and Hezbollah were key members of the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance.’

Dulaimi, however, dismissed the possibility of Iraq experiencing a scenario similar to Syria’s, emphasizing that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s "Iraq First" policy aims to shield the country from becoming a battleground to regional conflicts. Instead, Iraq should position itself as a bridge for dialogue and stability, he explained.

The former minister added that before Iraq can play a significant international role, it must first address its domestic issues, including governance and public services. He attributed Iraq’s diminished global influence to corruption and ineffective democracy, which have eroded public trust.

Regarding the upcoming legislative elections, Dulaimi highlighted the growing momentum of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement, noting its potential impact on the vote. He also pointed to shifting alliances among Iraq’s political forces, which he believes will result in changes to the country’s political dynamics.

The following is the full transcript of the discussion with Nouri al-Dulaimi.

Rudaw: Substantial changes are taking place in the Middle East, and it is said that these transformations will inevitably impact Iraq. What is your take on this?

Dulaimi: Indeed, the Middle East and Iraq are at the epicenter of a hurricane, and when a hurricane happens, it is the responsibility of the people in the house to first close the openings and entrances where problems can enter, second, to set aside all their differences, leave all internal and external issues and advance to resolve this problem. Many changes unfolded in the aftermath of October 7 [2023] was an earthquake that changed the maps, and I don't mean geographical maps, but political maps. There are new agreements, alliances, directions in the Middle East in general and in Iraq as well, which is part of these changes.

But what is the extent of the change are we talking about in Iraq? Considering the countries of the region and the changes that have unfolded, do you think the Syrian scenario will be experienced in Iraq or will the situation be different?

I don't think the Syrian scenario will be repeated in Iraq. Mr. [Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’] al-Sudani raised the slogan "Iraq First" a few days ago on some channels. When the slogan or principle in dealing with foreign policy is "Iraq First," this means we have an opportunity to safeguard Iraq from becoming part of the conflict or [turning into a] battlefield. Instead Iraq becomes a bridge for dialogue and understanding and a mediator that strengthens stability and peace [in the region]. This is the approach that Mr. Sudani is adopting today.

All active blocs and influential forces in the Iraqi political landscape should support this direction and push towards it. We have an opportunity to distance Iraq from problems after we have managed and are still trying to protect Iraq from becoming part of the conflicts. This is a good opportunity to become a party or mediator, to build a bridge of dialogue and strengthen stability and peace in the region.

Do you think that in previous years, following the 2003 [US-led invasion of Iraq], the country was generally in “second” or “third” priority [but now moved to be the “first”]?

In general, before Iraq advances towards playing an international role, it needs to achieve domestic well-being and services. The first step is to have public satisfaction about the political system, then we can move towards playing an international role. This long period and the failure to provide services appropriately has had a negative impact , namely weakening Iraq's international role. You cannot seek an influential international role when you have not achieved [public] satisfaction and have not provided adequate services to the community, and this is what is currently prevalent, due to corruption and unchecked democracy. Unchecked democracy is an obstacle to development that prevents governments from providing services, especially in some provincial councils where corruption is rampant. All of this has contributed to weakening the citizen's trust in the political system, so you cannot have a role if you are “second,” it is difficult.

The anticipated change as you say, do you think it will come from within the system or from outside? Are we talking about new faces [in governance] or faces from within the system?

I think change will come through the ballot boxes. The people of Iraq have been exhausted by the disagreements and problems for many years, since the 1980s. Today Iraqis are looking for stability and peace and they will vote for whoever offers peace, stability, and services. We see that many forces may not achieve good election results if they are part of the problems or move towards stirring up problems. So we see that in the upcoming [legislative] elections [slated for October 2025] there will be change, a clear change towards those who work on strengthening stability, peace, development, and services. I predict that the majority of the members of the next parliament will be those who seek stability and peace.

The incumbent Speaker of Parliament Dr. [Mahmoud] al-Mashhadani, stated at the Erbil Forum that the current parliamentary term is a miserable one.

This is unfortunate, so I say perhaps many of the current members will not be re-elected. In the previous question you mentioned new faces. Certainly, I think the next parliament will see a lot of faces change. The sitting parliament saw less than 20 percent change in faces compared to the previous legislature. However, the next parliament will see many new faces, because if the parliament speaker makes such a statement, that this term is miserable, certainly the [Iraqi] people and society will not go to re-elect those whom he described as miserable.

Indeed these were Mr. Mashhadani’s words, but Doctor, when you say change will come from the ballot boxes, we have to keep in mind that there are some obstacles. For example, the very low voter turnout rate in Iraqi elections - which stood at less than fifty percent [in the last vote] - indicates that the Iraqi people are largely disengaged and that the majority of them don't believe that change can be achieved through the ballot boxes. Do you think this has changed in the past four years? Will we see people go to the ballot boxes?

Firstly, the citizens have become much more aware. According to the ministry of planning statistics, half of the Iraqi people were born after 2003. So today we are facing a young, aware generation. The ministry of planning statistics, which were announced only a few days ago, showed that 60 to 61 percent of the Iraqi society is between 15 to 60 years old. So the Iraqi society is young and its young people will be aspiring to move towards change and elections are an instrument which achieves change.

So I predict that the next elections will see more participation, because young people are looking for change. I believe that in light of what is happening today, of international developments, the situation in Iraq is advancing towards change that will start from the ballot boxes. I predict that young people will participate in the coming elections, both in voting and in nomination at a higher rate. I also believe that the total citizens, 80 or 70 percent of those who did not participate in the previous elections, will participate at a higher rate this time around, and change will come as a result of their votes. Those who did not participate before are those who will move towards change through the ballot boxes.

We have seen an inclination towards change in Iraq before. For example, 2012 is a clear example, but Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court intervened and became an obstacle. Until now, each parliamentary term sees a different interpretation of the largest parliamentary bloc [which is tasked with assigning the country’s prime minister]. These interferences are very suspicious. In a way, it seems like there is an external actor, beyond Iraqi forces, that does not allow change to take place, and that has a set of political and judicial tools it employs. In the past this has been an obstacle. Why do you think that it won't become an obstacle again, even if Iraqis choose another party for example?

When the difference is big, it is very difficult for any party, whether external or internal, to intervene. The difference in the election or in who succeeds in the next parliamentary elections, will be a suitable and significant number of those who are looking for development and solutions [to long standing problems]. Today we have elections coming up. We either solve the problems from within the Iraqi house [a term that refers to the political and social representation of political groups] and move towards a stable situation or - God forbid - we will descend into problems. I think many people from all backgrounds and of all directions are looking for change and stability.

There is a [new] international reality that is casting its shadow over the region, and it is the responsibility of those in charge in Iraq, to manage the situation and sideline the country from the events that unfolded in other countries in order to safeguard Iraq. The solution can be achieved through the ballot boxes and the solution will be the result of the will of the people that will be reflected in the parliament and the next government, and if the citizens’ will is not respected, they will resort to other options, and it is not in the interest of anyone in Iraq that the citizens resort to other options other than the ballot boxes.

US President Donald Trump has returned to office, and there are other developments that unfolded following the October 7, 2023 events, which impacted Iraq. For example, Syria saw a very big change. Now some Iraqi leaders say we in Iraq have always supported the will of the Syrian people. I personally don't think this is true, with respect to all leaders, because some of them defended [toppled Syrian dictator] Bashar al-Assad until the last minute, and sent Iraqi youth to fight against the Syrian people. Now that these changes have taken place, how do you think the US will deal with Iraq? For example, there was a phone call for the first time between the US Secretary of State [Marco Rubio] and Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani. The US statement on the phone call was interesting as it explicitly said that the two sides were discussing reducing Iran's malign hegemony in Iraq.

I said that Mr. Sudani has said that our priority in foreign policy is "Iraq First," when this principle is sought, certainly we will not allow the hegemony of any side inside Iraq and it is not in Iraq's interest to avoid addressing such hegemony in a way that distances the country from conflicts. We need to have economic independence in gas and other matters. Iraq needs to be economically and politically independent and this can be achieved through dialogue to protect Iraq from more bloodshed God forbid. If these things pass, it is not in Iraq's interest to enter into a new war or turn into a battlefield.

I believe that many wise actors have reviewed their steps and are moving towards a situation that is compatible with international changes and, before that, compatible with the interests of the Iraqi people and citizens, before thinking about the interest of any citizen in another country or any other policy. "Iraq First" means we work towards domestic well-being, play the role of mediator, and try to be a catalyst of stability and not a part of conflict. It is not in anyone's interest that we are in conflict.

Elections are coming and I think each constituent and political party is separately preparing for these elections. There are two types of preparations underway: the first is internal preparation that each party is conducting in its area of influence, and the second is preparing the ground for post-election alliances with other parties outside their own constituent. In this regard, what are the preparations? If I may openly ask about the Sunni constituent in general, what will the election map look like?

As I mentioned before, what happened on October 7 was an earthquake that redrew maps, meaning the political maps, only it has become clear who is looking for stability and who is not, and who serves the interest of the [Iraqi] state and who serves the interest of other actors. We are today between these alliances, between those who are looking for the [best interest of the] state and for development, stability and services, and the latter group will be closest to the people.

Those who are not looking for the [best interest of the] state and do not think about it and are looking to become part of the axes, will certainly be in another alliance. Perhaps most parties will enter the elections separately, but the state, its peace, stability and services will be the point that brings alliances together. Those who are not looking for this will be in another coalition. I believe that the majority will be for those who are looking for stability and peace.

So we are facing a horizontal national alliance from the Kurdistan Region, central and southern and western regions of Iraq, consisting of different parties, but the slogan will be state, services and stability?

This is what I believe because the main solution, the sustainable solution, is building a sustainable state whose foundation is citizenship, its pillar is law and its limit is justice. With these three elements and principles we can build a sustainable and stable state.

Is there preparation for this project behind the scenes?

It has started, there are meetings and understandings and some have started looking for citizenship to be the basis [for understanding] and to view each other from the perspective of understanding rather than from the perspective of difference or from the angle of difference. There are understandings. We also see that the Sadrist movement has started its preparations, though until now, they have not announced whether they will participate in the upcoming legislative elections or not. However, their preparations are underway and I predict they will participate in the elections and their participation will be notable.

• SHARE ON
• Share on Facebook
• Share on Twitter
• Share on Whatsapp
• Share on Telegram
• Share on Viber
• Share on Messenger