SULAIMANI, Kurdistan Region – A senior Kurdish politician who also served as a member of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad says the conditions in the Iraqi capital are ripe for a military coup, with tensions running high after protesters stormed the parliament.
Muhammad Ahmad, the top Kurdistan Islamic Union official told Rudaw that rivalries among Shiite factions could also lead to full-scale civil war because of the many militia groups in the country.
“But there are other dangers afterwards, like the civil war and the escalated ISIS war. The Kurds should hurry and reorganize themselves before the Iraqi chaos hits them,” Ahmad warned.
Rudaw’s full interview with Mohammad Ahmad follows:
Rudaw: Was the chaos in Baghdad, in regard to the protests, predictable?
Muhammad Ahmad: Yes, they were. Nothing else could have come out of such disorder that has governed Iraq lately. If anything, we had expected it to take place even earlier. In fact, it happened later than expected.
But do you think what we see in Iraq today is much more than just Shiite-Sunni conflict? That it is a wider conflict among different ethnic groups in the country?
There are historically three factors behind Shiite unity: when they face a common adversary, when they are guided by their supreme religious leaders, when they are told and directed by Iran. At the moment their common enemies are not so powerful and that has left some space for inter-Shiite tensions. I expect it to become even harsher.
Did you see any tensions among different Shiite groups when you were in Baghdad ten years ago?
I did, although the disagreements were not so profound then. I predicted that they would at the end fight one another. When we talked about the system of federal regions in Iraq then, some of the Shiites feared that they would not be able to live with each other in the same region.
What about the Sunnis? Is this their momentum?
Well, I think on the whole the Sunnis have been left with no real power. At the moment they have no land, they have no wide popular support and consequently their political power is very much weakened. It wouldn’t be all too wrong to say that the Shiites no longer are intimidated by the Sunnis or Kurds. That is why the rivalries within the Shiite block have intensified.
Kurdish members of the Iraqi parliament were besieged in Baghdad with some of them even attacked by protesters. Some would say the Kurdish MPs were treated very bitterly.
The protests were initially about reforms but they were also influenced by sectarian tensions. There is always a kind of resentment towards Kurds. Although protesters attacked the head of the Fazila faction too, but generally everything could happen when anarchy prevails.
Before the protesters stormed the parliament, all political parties in the Kurdistan Region said that they would not endorse Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi’s reshuffle plans. Do you still have the same position?
If the new Iraq wants to succeed, it needs to return to its founding principles. But when these principles are sidelined, then anything can happen. The constitution is about these principles and it should at least be fulfilled. The Iraqi democracy is about consensus. There is chaos in the country since none of the constitutional principles are fully implemented. And there is also outside interference in Iraqi affairs.
But do you still insist on your demands regarding the new cabinet?
Yes we still think there should be a genuine share of power, with the Kurds receiving 20 or 21 percent of the cabinet posts. We decide who will be our representative, not Baghdad. Either we are together based on these principles or we part and become good neighbors.
But is the Shiite unity now dismantled? Can we say that Iraq’s partition is near?
Iraq is based on an unjust foundation, which is why the partition is always an option. Citizenship and what it means has been violated far too many times. With the political mayhem currently governing the country, one could say that there are only two options: either a strong dictator will keep Iraq united, or it will be divided into several regions and then we try to become good neighbors. The Shiites think of themselves as entitled to the entire country. The Sunnis think they have lost a state and want the past to come back. And the Kurds dream of their homeland. So the common grounds for Iraqi people are not there really. They are together not on free will.
When you took part in talks with the Shiites did you ever see different position within the Shiite factions?
Yes indeed, both within the Shiite and the Sunnis we have had differences of opinion. But generally Muqtada al-Sadr’s position is really not to be trusted. He says something today and does something else tomorrow. The Shiites generally think that Iraq should be more homogenous and this is why they want to reshuffle the government and end the system of power-sharing once and for all.
How is the Kurdish position?
Fairly good, but Kurds need to quickly unite and stabilize their institutions. The Kurdish MPs don’t need to go back to Baghdad until things have settled down there.
Do you think the situation in Baghdad will push Kurdish groups in Kurdistan to return to the negotiating table?
What happened in Baghdad was big and I hope it will encourage Kurds to unite. The fact is that a good opportunity has emerged for the Kurds but the relations between Kurdish parties at home is very tense. Kurdistan’s key institutions should work again and there should be a national force.
It is expected that the Kurdish MPs return to Baghdad in the future. But if they don’t, do you think there will be an international pressure on Kurds?
Yes, international pressure will be there until the end. But if we unite and maintain political stability, things will become easier. If Kurdish parties stabilize their relations, there will be only one thing between us and a Kurdish state, and that is international recognition. Obviously, if initially just a few countries recognize us, other countries will follow.
Iran has started mediate between the opposing parties in Baghdad; do you think Tehran can quickly find a solution?
Both Iran and the US are very much dependent on each other for any kind of change in Iraq. But the implicit cooperation between Iran and the US is not an obstacle for the Kurdish independence. If we stabilize our relations and tell them that we will be good neighbors to both Sunnis and Shiites, I think there shouldn’t be any obstacles. But the US and Iran still are very much in power. They can solve the problems through an early election.
So you think there is a chance that the situation in Baghdad will calm and won’t push the Kurds to independence?
Well, the Kurdish leadership will manage the transition. There should be an understanding between us and other Iraqi factions. And then there are Iraq’s neighbors who should be negotiated with. After that the Kurdish parties can draw a plan.
If it takes longer than expected, what do you expect will happen?
There is a possibility of civil war between Shiite groups and even a military coup. There is also the possibility of agreement on early elections. However, the situation is ripe for a military coup.
In case of a military coup, many believe former prime minister Nouri Maliki would likely carry it out.
It is ripe for anyone who wants to do it. But because of ISIS it could lead to bloodshed as well. Which means that ISIS will take advantage of the war. All options are on the table.
Do Kurds fear military coups in Baghdad?
Things will be chaotic for a while after the coup. But there are other dangers afterwards, like the civil war and the escalated ISIS war. The Kurds should hurry and reorganize themselves before the Iraqi chaos hits them.
Is ISIS emboldened by the Baghdad mayhem?
Obviously, when people see the tensions between Iraqi groups they will be inevitably discouraged in the war against ISIS. But there are even bigger threats. If the number of militia groups in Iraq continues to grow, it will almost always end in civil wars.
Kurdish opposition leader Nawshirwan Mustafa is back in Kurdistan after a seven-month trip to the UK. Do you think the talks between Kurdish parties begin now?
I just hope that it will be the case. The problems in Kurdistan are not that big and they could be solved. The opposition and the Kurdistan Democratic Party can solve these problems. In my opinion now is not the time for rivalry. They should have the will to solve the issues and I think they do have the will and are committed.
Muhammad Ahmad, the top Kurdistan Islamic Union official told Rudaw that rivalries among Shiite factions could also lead to full-scale civil war because of the many militia groups in the country.
“But there are other dangers afterwards, like the civil war and the escalated ISIS war. The Kurds should hurry and reorganize themselves before the Iraqi chaos hits them,” Ahmad warned.
Rudaw’s full interview with Mohammad Ahmad follows:
Rudaw: Was the chaos in Baghdad, in regard to the protests, predictable?
Muhammad Ahmad: Yes, they were. Nothing else could have come out of such disorder that has governed Iraq lately. If anything, we had expected it to take place even earlier. In fact, it happened later than expected.
But do you think what we see in Iraq today is much more than just Shiite-Sunni conflict? That it is a wider conflict among different ethnic groups in the country?
There are historically three factors behind Shiite unity: when they face a common adversary, when they are guided by their supreme religious leaders, when they are told and directed by Iran. At the moment their common enemies are not so powerful and that has left some space for inter-Shiite tensions. I expect it to become even harsher.
Did you see any tensions among different Shiite groups when you were in Baghdad ten years ago?
I did, although the disagreements were not so profound then. I predicted that they would at the end fight one another. When we talked about the system of federal regions in Iraq then, some of the Shiites feared that they would not be able to live with each other in the same region.
What about the Sunnis? Is this their momentum?
Well, I think on the whole the Sunnis have been left with no real power. At the moment they have no land, they have no wide popular support and consequently their political power is very much weakened. It wouldn’t be all too wrong to say that the Shiites no longer are intimidated by the Sunnis or Kurds. That is why the rivalries within the Shiite block have intensified.
Kurdish members of the Iraqi parliament were besieged in Baghdad with some of them even attacked by protesters. Some would say the Kurdish MPs were treated very bitterly.
The protests were initially about reforms but they were also influenced by sectarian tensions. There is always a kind of resentment towards Kurds. Although protesters attacked the head of the Fazila faction too, but generally everything could happen when anarchy prevails.
Before the protesters stormed the parliament, all political parties in the Kurdistan Region said that they would not endorse Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi’s reshuffle plans. Do you still have the same position?
If the new Iraq wants to succeed, it needs to return to its founding principles. But when these principles are sidelined, then anything can happen. The constitution is about these principles and it should at least be fulfilled. The Iraqi democracy is about consensus. There is chaos in the country since none of the constitutional principles are fully implemented. And there is also outside interference in Iraqi affairs.
But do you still insist on your demands regarding the new cabinet?
Yes we still think there should be a genuine share of power, with the Kurds receiving 20 or 21 percent of the cabinet posts. We decide who will be our representative, not Baghdad. Either we are together based on these principles or we part and become good neighbors.
But is the Shiite unity now dismantled? Can we say that Iraq’s partition is near?
Iraq is based on an unjust foundation, which is why the partition is always an option. Citizenship and what it means has been violated far too many times. With the political mayhem currently governing the country, one could say that there are only two options: either a strong dictator will keep Iraq united, or it will be divided into several regions and then we try to become good neighbors. The Shiites think of themselves as entitled to the entire country. The Sunnis think they have lost a state and want the past to come back. And the Kurds dream of their homeland. So the common grounds for Iraqi people are not there really. They are together not on free will.
When you took part in talks with the Shiites did you ever see different position within the Shiite factions?
Yes indeed, both within the Shiite and the Sunnis we have had differences of opinion. But generally Muqtada al-Sadr’s position is really not to be trusted. He says something today and does something else tomorrow. The Shiites generally think that Iraq should be more homogenous and this is why they want to reshuffle the government and end the system of power-sharing once and for all.
How is the Kurdish position?
Fairly good, but Kurds need to quickly unite and stabilize their institutions. The Kurdish MPs don’t need to go back to Baghdad until things have settled down there.
Do you think the situation in Baghdad will push Kurdish groups in Kurdistan to return to the negotiating table?
What happened in Baghdad was big and I hope it will encourage Kurds to unite. The fact is that a good opportunity has emerged for the Kurds but the relations between Kurdish parties at home is very tense. Kurdistan’s key institutions should work again and there should be a national force.
It is expected that the Kurdish MPs return to Baghdad in the future. But if they don’t, do you think there will be an international pressure on Kurds?
Yes, international pressure will be there until the end. But if we unite and maintain political stability, things will become easier. If Kurdish parties stabilize their relations, there will be only one thing between us and a Kurdish state, and that is international recognition. Obviously, if initially just a few countries recognize us, other countries will follow.
Iran has started mediate between the opposing parties in Baghdad; do you think Tehran can quickly find a solution?
Both Iran and the US are very much dependent on each other for any kind of change in Iraq. But the implicit cooperation between Iran and the US is not an obstacle for the Kurdish independence. If we stabilize our relations and tell them that we will be good neighbors to both Sunnis and Shiites, I think there shouldn’t be any obstacles. But the US and Iran still are very much in power. They can solve the problems through an early election.
So you think there is a chance that the situation in Baghdad will calm and won’t push the Kurds to independence?
Well, the Kurdish leadership will manage the transition. There should be an understanding between us and other Iraqi factions. And then there are Iraq’s neighbors who should be negotiated with. After that the Kurdish parties can draw a plan.
If it takes longer than expected, what do you expect will happen?
There is a possibility of civil war between Shiite groups and even a military coup. There is also the possibility of agreement on early elections. However, the situation is ripe for a military coup.
In case of a military coup, many believe former prime minister Nouri Maliki would likely carry it out.
It is ripe for anyone who wants to do it. But because of ISIS it could lead to bloodshed as well. Which means that ISIS will take advantage of the war. All options are on the table.
Do Kurds fear military coups in Baghdad?
Things will be chaotic for a while after the coup. But there are other dangers afterwards, like the civil war and the escalated ISIS war. The Kurds should hurry and reorganize themselves before the Iraqi chaos hits them.
Is ISIS emboldened by the Baghdad mayhem?
Obviously, when people see the tensions between Iraqi groups they will be inevitably discouraged in the war against ISIS. But there are even bigger threats. If the number of militia groups in Iraq continues to grow, it will almost always end in civil wars.
Kurdish opposition leader Nawshirwan Mustafa is back in Kurdistan after a seven-month trip to the UK. Do you think the talks between Kurdish parties begin now?
I just hope that it will be the case. The problems in Kurdistan are not that big and they could be solved. The opposition and the Kurdistan Democratic Party can solve these problems. In my opinion now is not the time for rivalry. They should have the will to solve the issues and I think they do have the will and are committed.
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