A televised speech from Muqtada al-Sadr was enough to put an end to clashes between his supporters and rival Iran-backed militias. It was a powerful comeback for Sadr especially after announcing his “definitive retirement.” He once again showed off his outstanding power over his rival Shiite blocs. In his Tuesday speech where he called off protests and clashes, he hinted that despite his "definitive" resignation from politics, at least in the short-term, the political process in Iraq in his absence means chaos and instability.
Mounting pressure and Sadr's reaction
In the course of the past few months, the Iran-backed Shiite Coordination Framework had ramped up all efforts to hold a parliament session to elect a president and prime minister, regardless of Sadr's repeated calls for dissolving the legislature. Meanwhile, Grand Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri's stepped down and criticized Sadr for creating divisions among the Iraqi people. He called on his supporters to follow Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as their sole marja (Shiite religious authority), which was another blow dealt to Sadr’s religious stance. Sadr had taken a course on Dars-Kharij-Fiqh (Higher Islamic Studies) with Haeri. Anyone wanting to become a traditional marja should be given the authority by another marja, but now Sadr will have to knock on the door of another marja.
Haeri’s call on his followers to rally behind Khamenei did not go unanswered. Sadr said that "the holy Najaf is the center of the marja,'' referring to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani who is Iraq’s top Shiite marja.
The recent mounting political and religious pressures on the leader of the Sadrist movement might have made Sadr remind everyone that a political process without him may collapse and Iraq could be engulfed by instability. What happened in the past few days was a game that Sadr played to prove that he is capable of disrupting the Coordination Framework's plans and at the same time bringing tensions and riots under control.
Contrary to the view that there would be a major Shiite civil war, it was clear from the beginning that even if war happened, it was unlikely to escalate because Sadr had left an open door to control the situation through the announcement of his retirement from politics, exactly what he did on Tuesday.
Sistani has not yet expressed his final say. Despite mounting political and religious pressures on Sadr, the Coordination Framework was still unwilling to escalate the situation with Sadr. This is in addition to the fact that, at least at the present time, there was no strong external motivation to stir up the Shiite civil war, which if it occurs, then it could affect the oil market and the lives of 40 million people, something that the neighboring countries do not want to see.
What will happen?
Since the parliamentary elections of October 2021, Sadr has given chance to the Coordination Framework several times to come forward and form the government, including a 40-day ultimatum. He gave more chances to his rivals, including his withdrawal from the parliament, and his messages for his supporters during massive street prayers, making it clear to them [the Coordination Framework] that they could form the government under certain conditions.
However, the nomination of Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani for the post of prime minister by the Coordination Framework and the pro-Iran group's threat that they would not allow the incumbent prime minister's efforts to make changes in the Iraqi intelligence agency and his office, stoked the fear that Sadr thought that he would be erased from the political scene if the Coordination Framework were to take power. It was exactly the very similar fear that the Coordination Framework had if Sadr had taken power.
There is a strong possibility that, following the recent events that unfolded in Baghdad, there is no room left for talks on the formation of a government between Sadr and the Coordination Framework. What is clear and likely to happen is holding fresh elections. There could be ongoing rivalries for a long time because even if the government is formed, there might be repeated protests and growing instability in the country.
Despite Sadr quitting politics, a close associate of him who refers to himself as Sadr’s “minister” returned to Twitter after putting a profile picture that said “closed” following the cleric’s resignation.
His return sent out a message to his rivals that said Sadr had no plans to depart from the political arena any time soon.
Ziryan Rojhelati is director of Rudaw Research Center
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw
