Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the presidential election in Turkey's first public presidential poll on Sunday, extending his 12-year grip on power. Despite intense campaigning and financial support from public funds, he captured 52 percent of the vote — just a hairline above the absolute majority required to win the presidency.
The race is hardly over for Erdogan. Sunday’s results are only the first step in his pledge to beef up the largely ceremonial presidency and transform Ankara’s parliamentary system into one with a powerful executive branch, similar to that of the United States.
Switching to a presidential system requires a constitutional amendment, which will only be possible if Erdogan gains the full backing of the parliament and if his Justice and Development Party (AKP) wins the 2015 parliamentary elections. This is where things could get difficult for Erdogan.
Ahead of the parliamentary elections, Erdogan must manage the party carefully to prevent an internal power struggle. He needs a loyalist prime minister who is strong enough to maintain the party’s unity and boost AKP’s votes in 2015 but compliant enough to realize Erdogan’s political ambitions. Undoubtedly, whomever Erdogan appoints as the prime minister will prove critical in his drive to strengthen the president’s powers.
Under the constitution, Erdogan has to resign from the party once he is inaugurated as president on Aug. 28. A grand party congress will elect the new party leader, whom Erdogan will officially appoint as the new prime minister on Aug. 29.
Erdogan’s AKP now holds 58 percent of seats in Parliament. The new prime minister will need to ensure his party gains more seats in the 2015 election to be able to secure the two-thirds majority that is required to pass constitutional amendments.
Any amendment must also be approved in a referendum. This is a tall order even for Erdogan — a leader who seems invincible after winning three consecutive national elections since 2002 — considering the deep polarization engulfing the country over the last year.
Erdogan’s narrow win on Sunday is a testament to the challenges ahead for his presidential ambitions. Turkish society remains deeply divided over Erdogan’s rule.
In the last year, he has faced several challenges that have undermined his popularity. A recent Pew Research Center survey portrayed Turkey as a divided society, with 48 percent approving of Erdogan and 48 percent disapproving.
Many in Turkey's opposition feel excluded from politics, which explains the 72 percent turnout on Sunday — the lowest for a national election since 1977 and far below the 90 percent seen during the local elections in March.
Mass anti-AKP protests in 2013 were suppressed by police forces, which made Erdogan look like an increasingly authoritarian leader. A corruption scandal that included members of his inner circle and the fallout with his former ally Fethullah Gulen, a US-based imam, added to this image.
Yet the party’s biggest test is yet to come. The AKP has to widen its base ahead of parliamentary elections after losing its popular and charismatic leader. A reshuffling within the AKP might further weaken the party.
The AKP’s charter prohibits party members from holding public office more than three times, which means that 70 members of the AKP, who are key figures within the party, cannot run for the elections in 2015.
Erdogan’s quest to trade up from a parliamentary to a presidential system will not be a smooth ride. He can still enjoy wide executive powers without a constitutional change, however.
The current constitution allows the president to chair Cabinet meetings, issue governmental decrees, veto laws, determine parliamentary rules and call for early elections. He has the power to appoint the head of the general staff, the board of higher education and university presidents, members of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors, the disciplinary body for Turkey’s legal system.
Previous Turkish presidents have refrained from exercising these executive powers, but Erdogan will not be one of them. Erdogan and his supporters will argue that as the first popularly elected president, he has the mandate to play a more active role as the country’s chief executive. Throughout his presidential campaign, he hinted that he would not assume the traditional ceremonial role of the presidency.
Whether Erdogan will be able to realize his dream of turning Turkey into a presidential system remains to be seen, but he will undoubtedly be a much different president than his predecessors.
* Gonul Tol is Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute.
