The constant calls from the west, especially the US for a peaceful negotiated end to the Iraqi invasion of Kurdistan are either an empty declaration designed to buy time or evidence that the west is completely out of touch with the region. Depending on the person talking, I believe it is a little of both. President Trump is struggling with a difficult domestic agenda and has demanded most of his time. He is therefore dependent on his advisors in both the Defense department and the State department. Defense is on the side of delay to buy time in the hope that the last of ISIS is defeated. State, unfortunately, is completely clueless as to what is going on and who the players are.
Most information about Iraq to State is coming from the Presidential Special Envoy Brett McGurk. He has served in positions in Iraq since 2004, as legal advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority and as such helped write the Transitional Administrative Law as well as assist in the writing of the Iraqi constitution. In his tenure as Special Advisor he became very close to former PM Maliki and current PM Abadi. His limited information base led the US to believe we had more leverage then we do. In fact, the false information received from McGurk allowed the US to be completely caught off guard when the Kurds did in fact hold a referendum on independence.
The US was further caught off guard by the violent response by Baghdad to the holding of the referendum. The fact that the response was likely conceived and directed by Iran was further evidence of McGurk’s incompetence or culpability. US inaction, past this, all falls on the US State Department.
Recently Congressman Trent Franks has called for a recognition of Kurdish independence. There have been supporting statements from others such as Sen. Ted Cruz. Most recently eight senators from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee sent a letter to Abadi telling him to cease hostilities and negotiate with the KRG. All this is an attempt to cease hostilities allowing the two side to come together and negotiate. While applauding the intent, it must be understood, there will be no negotiations. To negotiate both sides need to be willing, currently only the Kurds have shown any willingness to talk. What is left for the US and the West to do is meet force with force. We need to put boots on the ground in support of our only true ally in the region. How do we justify this escalation in an already violent situation?
Iraq has made it much easier to justify intervention by allowing Iran to take over its military as well as most of the rest of the government. Just hours before Iraqi forces, aided by Iranian trained and led militias, attacked Kirkuk, President Trump declared the Iranian IRGC force a terrorist organization. The IRGC was a main component of the militia leadership to include MG Qasem Soleimani commander of the IRGC-Quds force. Soleimani has also been active in directing battles for Hamas and Hezbollah in the Palestinian territories as well as in Syria.
Additionally, Iraq has voided its constitution, first by attacking its own citizens, then denying the use of the Kurdish language in the territories it took over. Just to be clear, Article 4 states “The Arabic language and Kurdish language are the two official languages of Iraq.” How then can Kurdish be outlawed. The excused used to attack Kirkuk was that it was part of the disputed territories and therefore not part of the Kurdish region. Once again in the Iraq constitution Article 140 declared that a referendum would be held in the disputed territories no later than the end of 2007, or ten years ago. Most recently the closure of banks in the Kurdish region.
There is no longer a legal or diplomatic reason to continue the pretense of a unified Iraq. The unfortunate consequence of dependence on single source information is that we now find ourselves in a position that will require a military option or at least credible threat of military action. Let’s do what is right for the Kurds then figure out why we have constantly been put in this type of position by State.
Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the president of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.
