ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - As the deadline for the withdrawal of US and Global Coalition forces from Iraq approaches at the end of September, the Kurdistan Region faces a precarious security juncture, with its airspace exposed to potential attacks from armed groups operating under the Iran-aligned Islamic Resistance of Iraq (IRI).
Staff Lt. Gen. Bakhtiyar Mohammed, secretary-general of Erbil's Peshmerga ministry, told Rudaw's Hevidar Ahmed that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) remains without an integrated air defense network.
"Our current assets lack the capability to intercept advanced drones," Mohammed said, noting that the ministry itself cannot defend against direct drone strikes.
He added that "the Kurdistan Region's airspace lacks radar surveillance, anti-aircraft capabilities, and integrated air defenses - including counter-drone and comprehensive surface-to-air systems," noting that the US-led Global Coalition "assisted us significantly in this domain and served as our eye in the sky."
According to Rudaw tracking, the Kurdistan Region has endured more than 965 drone and missile attacks launched by Iran and allied Iraqi armed groups since the outbreak of the six-week war in late February.
The Iraqi armed groups operate under the IRI umbrella, which in early April claimed to have carried out more than 750 attacks against alleged US-linked targets in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region since the start of the conflict.
Addressing the security pretexts previously cited for military escalation, Kadhim al-Fartousi, spokesperson for the Iraqi armed group Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, told Ahmed that "once US forces withdraw [from the Kurdistan Region], no pretext remains, and we will not tolerate any aggression against Kurdistan."
Military experts, nonetheless, remain skeptical that behind-the-scenes adjustments and bilateral security frameworks can bridge the Kurdistan Region's immediate capability gap.
"I suspect not all assets will be withdrawn even if the administration says assets have been withdrawn," said Brig. Gen. Ernest Audino, a retired US Army commander with extensive experience in the region.
"My opinion is we'll probably leave some on the ground - certainly our C-RAM capabilities: counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar," he added.
Kurdish academics and political analysts, meanwhile, emphasize that Washington's new posture reflects broader geopolitical realignments that prioritize sovereign national capitals over regional sub-state actors.
"Global geopolitics has pivoted back toward prioritizing sovereign nation-states... at the expense of non-state national actors,” said Dr. Bilal Wahab, President of the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani (AUIS), who also pointed to what he described as "frustration" in Washington over internal divisions among Kurdistan's ruling political parties.
