In this episode of Unfinished Stories, Rudaw’s Hevidar Ahmed travels to Baghdad to examine Iraq’s political prospects following the withdrawal of the US-led coalition forces on September 30, and what the new political landscape could mean for the Kurdish role in Baghdad.
To that end, he meets with veteran Iraqi Shiite politician Izzat al-Shabandar, a key political decision-maker, and Hoshyar Zebari, a senior member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Their discussions focus on the disarmament of Iran-backed factions and the future of Kurdish parties’ political influence in Baghdad.
"If the Americans want to drive Iran out and lay the groundwork for Arab states to fill that vacuum, they are looking at fifteen to twenty years of war," Shabandar says.
The US, particularly US President Donald Trump, wants ties with Iran severed, but Iran doesn't mind Iraq maintaining ties with the US, claimed Shabandar.
Despite September 30 also being the deadline for armed factions to lay down their weapons, Shabandar acknowledges that the deadline is not set in stone. "The government has managed to persuade certain influential American figures involved in Iraqi decision-making that September 30 is not a sacred deadline, meaning that on September 30, they must hand over their aircraft and missiles and sit down," said Shabandar.
The prospect of Iran-backed factions entering into armed conflict with the state is not something anybody wants to see, Zebari said. "At the same time, efforts are underway to steer the situation toward stability, and no one should take satisfaction in the prospect of armed conflict between the factions and the government - Shiite vs. Shiite. We certainly do not support that, because if things go wrong, everyone suffers," said Zebari.
For Kurds, the US leaving is making them cautious, but they know they need domestic unity in the Kurdistan Region to present a strong front in Baghdad.
Following the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Kurds arrived in Baghdad at the height of their political power, acting as equal partners in building the new Iraq and architects of the constitution.
However, three weeks after the Kurds held an independence referendum on September 25, 2017, Iraq responded with tanks and artillery against Peshmerga forces.
Since then, the shift has extended beyond the military domain. Baghdad views itself as dominant. Through state institutions, it has placed the Kurdistan Region’s oil exports, oil revenues, regional salaries, internal revenues, and rulings on Kurdistan's parliamentary elections under its oversight and control.
"With America, yes, and with the Iraqi government too, because we consider ourselves part of it. But we will undeniably be stronger in Baghdad if we are united," said Zebari.
