ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iran’s oil revenues are projected to plummet to near zero within the next two months if the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues and the country is forced to further cut production due to bottlenecked inventories, the leading data and analytics firm Kpler told Rudaw English on Wednesday.
Head of Crude Oil Analysis at the firm, Homayoun Falakshahi, stated “We have not seen any tanker carrying Iranian oil pass through the blockade zone,” located between the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, adding that Tehran’s “oil revenues will progressively come down to zero, because the oil cannot leave the blockade area.”
He further noted that Iranian oil shipments have dropped from 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in early April to below 1 million bpd, with further declines expected due to logistical bottlenecks.
“Over the next three to four weeks, Iran will reach its limit in terms of being able to store this oil,” Falakshahi said, adding that this suggests production has already likely begun to decline. “Iran has started reducing output” and could cut production by up to 1.5 million bpd - roughly half of its crude production capacity - he said, warning that such cuts would also increase costs, particularly “operational expenses,” for the National Iranian Oil Company.
The US and Israel launched a wide-scale air campaign against Iran on February 28, targeting more than 17,000 sites across the country over six weeks of hostilities.
In response, Tehran carried out thousands of drone and missile strikes across the Middle East, targeting alleged US assets - particularly in Gulf Arab states - as well as launching retaliatory attacks against Israel.
The US and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire on April 8, halting fighting to allow space for talks. While the first round of discussions ended without a final agreement on April 11, Islamabad has since stepped up efforts to facilitate a second round of negotiations between American and Iranian officials, though these efforts have yet to yield tangible results.
In parallel with the talks, Iran and the US have engaged in reciprocal maritime restrictions. In the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has tightened controls on shipping, while Washington has enforced naval measures targeting vessels linked to Iranian ports, with US Central Command reporting on Sunday that “American forces have directed 38 ships to turn around, or return to port.”
For his part, Falakshahi noted that approximately 18 empty tankers are currently stationed in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, adding that even if they are loaded in the coming days, “they will not be able to pass through and escape the blockade,” while Iran’s onshore storage capacity is also limited.
He also said that Tehran has about 120 million barrels of oil stored on tankers near China - its main buyer of crude - but cautioned that “accessing the revenues would be difficult.”
US President Donald Trump imposed the naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 13, with media reports suggesting he recently instructed aides to prepare for an “extended blockade of Iran” designed to drain its coffers and compel nuclear concessions.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X early Tuesday that Iran’s “creaking oil industry” is beginning to shut down due to the blockade. “Pumping will soon collapse,” he wrote, warning that gasoline shortages within Iran are likely to follow.
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