“If Iran is not ready to negotiate with the US in any way, the alternative will be intensifying sanctions that will significantly worsen Iran’s economic situation,” Iranian writer and researcher Sadegh Zibakalam told Rudaw’s Jaafar Mubasher.
In early February, US President Donald Trump restored the maximum pressure policy against Iran, in a bid to drive its oil exports down to zero. Trump argued that Iran is “too close” to obtaining nuclear weapons, adding that “the US has the right to block the sale of Iranian oil to other nations.” In the same address, the American president expressed interest in negotiating a deal with Tehran.
Shortly after, the US Treasury Department imposed new sanctions on several individuals and tankers involved in shipping millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China. The department stated the oil was being shipped on behalf of Iran's Armed Forces General Staff.The sanctions targeted individuals and companies in countries including China, India, and the United Arab Emirates.
Amid these developments, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in early February, advised against negotiating with the US, deeming such efforts “unwise.” He added that negotiating with Washington would not solve Tehran’s problems.
Zibakalam stated that “if Iran remains adamant about rejecting negotiations with the US, the likelihood of military confrontation between Iran and Israel is very serious.” The analyst argued that Tehran’s refusal to hold talks with Washington serves Tel Aviv’s interests and “gives it an excuse to attack Iranian military facilities.“
In 2015, Iran signed a nuclear deal with the P5+1 (Britain, France, Russia, China, the US, and Germany), officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Tehran agreed to curb its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for much-needed relief from crippling sanctions.
The deal began unraveling in 2018 when Trump, during his first term, unilaterally withdrew from the accord and reimposed all sanctions on the Islamic republic, which in turn began escalating its nuclear enrichment efforts.
According to Zibakalam, amid these pressures, “Iran now realizes that it must somehow reach an agreement with the new US administration and Trump.”
