ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraq’s legislative elections will take place as scheduled on November 11, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani aiming for a second term in office, an advisor to the PM confirmed to Rudaw.
Farhad Alaaldin told Rudaw’s Sangar Abdulrahman that “November 11 has been set as election day, and they will certainly be held on that day.”
Asked about Sudani’s ambitions for a second term as premier, Alaaldin affirmed, “Of course he wants to [be premier for a second term], and he will participate strongly in the elections.”
Alaaldin elaborated that Sudani will lead a “large list in the elections” and could be “one of the major competitors who secures the most votes,” making him a “top candidate” for re-election as prime minister.
Oil exports from the Kurdistan Region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been suspended since March 2023 after a Paris-based arbitration court ruled in favor of Baghdad against Ankara, saying the latter had violated a 1973 pipeline agreement by allowing Erbil to begin exporting oil independently in 2014.
However, in early February, the Iraqi parliament approved amendments to the federal budget law, authorizing a $16-per-barrel fee for production and transport costs in the Kurdistan Region - a move seen as a crucial step toward restarting exports.
The amended budget law also set a 60-day deadline for the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government to establish an international consultancy body to assess those costs.
Despite ongoing talks between Erbil, Baghdad, Ankara, and international oil companies, the exports remain stalled.
Alaaldin told Rudaw that the export suspension remains unresolved due to “technical” issues, elaborating that the KRG and the Federal Government of Iraq have differing perspectives on the “scope of work” of the third party and “what their duties and tasks would be.”
In 2014, the Islamic State (ISIS) launched an all-out offensive taking large swathes of territory in Iraq’s west and north. In the aftermath, the United States led a Global Coalition to defeat ISIS providing military and security assistance to Iraq.
On the future of the coalition’s mission in Iraq, Alaaldin explained that the Iraqi government “is engaging with the Americans and the international coalition to set a timetable for ending the [mission of the] Global Coalition to defeat ISIS” in the country.
He elaborated that Iraq is advancing towards a second phase where “direct relations with the countries” of the coalition are established.
“Now, there is direct dialogue with the Americans, British, French and others about military and security cooperation directly,” Alaaldin said.
The following is the full transcript of the interview:
Rudaw: Will the legislative elections slated for November 2025 be held on time?
Farhad Alaaldin: Yes, all the requirements that [Iraq’s Independent High] Electoral Commission (IHEC) presented to the Council of Ministers have been confirmed ready. The Prime Minister [Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani] has repeatedly emphasized his support for holding the elections. It is a constitutional right to hold parliamentary elections every four years, and the Council of Ministers - [in its April 9] meeting - decided to set November 11 as the day for the elections, which is about 14 days ahead of the final deadline to hold them, and it will certainly happen.
Was the IHEC consulted about this?
The Electoral Commission itself proposed this date, though not precisely. As I recall, they had proposed holding the elections in November and the Council of Ministers set the exact date, but the IHEC is the side that determines the time frame.
I mean, is the IHEC ready for the elections to be held on that date?
By all accounts, the Electoral Commission is fully prepared and has begun registering voters, as well as issuing instructions for registering coalitions and those who want to participate. In the coming period, discussions about the upcoming election will become more official and visible across all platforms.
Under which election law will the vote be held?
Certainly the current law that is in effect. The current law was amended after the previous law, which was used in the 2021 election and upheld a multi-constituency elections system. After the formation of the parliament, they [lawmakers] amended the law, returning to the Sainte-Laguë system. Many people now say, why should we change the law again when we haven't even tried the one in effect?
But some parties are strongly urging changes.
In fact, it is just one party, but in the latest meeting of the [ruling] State Administration Coalition in Baghdad, they decided to hold the elections under the current law.
But right after that, the State of Law coalition said they want the law in effect to be amended.
That's the State of Law's viewpoint, but the decision is made by the State Administration Coalition as a whole.
What does the State of Law want amended?
They have made several proposals so far. One of them is the issue of the highest vote - for example, allocating a percentage (perhaps 10 percent or 20 percent) of the seats in each constituency to the ones who get the highest votes, with the rest distributed through the normal Sainte-Laguë system. This has been rejected by most political parties as there is no consensus on it, so the indications show that the upcoming election will be held per the current law.
If the disagreement over the election law continues, could it impact the election date?
No, the issue of the election date is a constitutional right, and the current political system is built per this democratic system. If the democratic system is undermined and the constitution is violated, the legitimacy of the establishment will be questioned. So it is not in any political party's interest to fall into this trap, especially since in general, no one wants this system to change. We can say there is consensus that this democratic system should continue and a peaceful transfer of power should unfold. So whether there is a law or not, or there is a disagreement about it, remember that even in 2014 when elections were held, three Iraqi provinces were under the control of [the Islamic State] ISIS and still the elections were held. So it is a constitutional right, and I don't think anyone wants to trap themselves by trying to delay the vote. Even if the elections are delayed, the final deadline is November 25, so there's a two-week window. Delaying the elections to beyond November 25 would be a constitutional violation, so on what basis would that happen?
And that hasn't happened in Iraq since 2003.
No, it hasn't.
It was recently circulated that the new US administration is exerting a lot of pressure on the Iraqi government regarding armed groups. What is Washington asking of the Iraqi government?
What is circulating on social media and in media reports does not reflect what is happening in reality. What we're hearing now has been exaggerated. We've met with the Americans in Washington and have held direct discussions; they also came to Baghdad and met directly with the Prime Minister, ministers, and parliamentarians. They generally support Iraq's stability, and the Iraqi government's [ministerial] program - the program that the State Administration Coalition voted for. As the Prime Minister [Sudani] mentioned today in the Sulaimani Forum, reforming the security forces is part of the demands, as well as keeping weapons in state hands, which is part of the government’s program and a general demand. At the same time, the [supreme] religious authority in Najaf has explicitly urged implementing the latter. So when it comes to keeping weapons in state hands, this concept is not new to political parties.
But there were some groups outside the Iraqi state, outside the Iraqi army, that attacked US interests in the region. I am referring to these groups in part. What has the US administration requested from the Iraqi government with regards to them?
The US has interests in the region and wants to defend them. Within Iraq, it is the Baghdad government and the duty of the state to protect the country’s sovereignty, which is sought. But if you notice, the head of government and political parties have decided that any [action] outside the state should not occur. So we see that even statements against the state aren't being made, and all those attacks [against US interests] you mentioned have stopped - they have been halted for several months now. It is not a secret that is hidden from anyone.
Is it true that the US administration told the Iraqi government in writing that if it does not control these groups and disarm them, the US will strike them?
That is not true. The conversation did not unfold like that, but what the Americans have not been shy about and have reiterated many times in the media, is that if they come under attack, they will respond, and such attacks have happened several times.
Are these armed groups ready to lay down their weapons?
Now, if we advance toward stability, one of the pretexts some of these groups use is that foreign forces in Iraq are occupiers. The government, as per its program, is engaging with the Americans and the international coalition to set a timetable for ending the [mission of the US-led] Global Coalition to defeat ISIS and support Iraq. The government decided we no longer need assistance from this coalition, but we are moving to the second phase, which is direct relations with the countries within this coalition. So now there's direct dialogue with the Americans, British, French and others about military and security cooperation directly, as is the case with other countries. The view of the [Iraqi] state and Prime Minister is that Iraq still needs to exit the state of war and become a normal country, like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, and all other countries, where any military relationship is established with the central government.
Is the Iraqi government currently in a state of war?
Having an international coalition to fight against ISIS effectively means that you are in a state of war; the presence of [the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq] UNAMI means you are still at war. In a normal situation, is a mission like UNAMI found in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait or Qatar or the UAE? No.
Is there an international coalition in those countries? In Turkey? No. So certainly you're still at war, but the time has come for us in Iraq, which now enjoys a lot of stability, to advance toward becoming a normal country, and if we want military relations, whether with the US, the UK, France, or any other party, it should be a direct relationship.
Why are oil exports from the Kurdistan Region still suspended? What is hindering the resumption of these exports?
The problem is more technical than anything else, and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Federal Government of Iraq are engaging in direct dialogue for the cause. The KRG delegation has visited Baghdad several times, and so have [international oil] company representatives.
There are several technical issues, one of which is the cost of oil extraction - how much it costs to extract the oil from the ground. As per Iraq's budget law, it was previously about seven or eight dollars, which the companies say is far too low. So the Prime Minister worked hard to increase this amount to $16 in the budget law amendment.
Also, a third party should be contracted to examine each well and determine the extraction cost - it might be $20 in some places and $10 in others.
Is that all the third party would do? As per my knowledge, the KRG is fearful they might be tasked with doing other things in the future.
They cannot do other things. The budget law is very clear. It states that a third party comes to assess the costs [only]. The third party is not determined by one side; it must be assigned per the consent of both sides. But what they call the "scope of work" - the KRG has submitted a copy, and Baghdad has also submitted one.
So regarding this third party, the KRG has one project and the Iraqi government has another?
No, not a project, but a description of duties; what their tasks are. The KRG says one thing, and the federal government [says another].
So what are the KRG and the federal government at odds over in this regard?
I wouldn't say they are at odds. They just have differing perspectives about what the third party's tasks and work should be. According to the federal government, the third party should be able to go to a well and examine it, from a technical perspective, and assess the costs of extraction, transportation as well as technical costs and all other expenses. Accordingly, they need to reach a common formula, and when they reach a common formula, the cost for each barrel of oil produced is determined and calculations are made.
Has the crisis of unpaid salaries for the Kurdistan Region’s civil servants been resolved?
Salaries are being disbursed every month.
But it is not a sustainable solution that salaries are paid by the federal government in Iraq.
The issue is clear - the KRG [civil servants’] salaries are tied to the delivery of oil and non-oil revenues, and to be honest, many times those revenues have not been delivered [by the KRG], and these disagreements need a mechanism to be resolved automatically.
Why do these problems continue unaddressed?
That's a question you should ask both sides.
I'm asking the Federal Government of Iraq.
The Iraqi government, especially during Prime Minister Sudani's tenure - today you heard the KRG President speak about his [Sudani’s] role in reducing differences [between Baghdad and Erbil] and increasing common ground.
What he has done for the Kurdistan Region so far is perhaps no less than other prime ministers in showing flexibility, while at the same time viewing Kurdistan Region citizens equally as Iraqi citizens without discrimination. This flexibility should be capitalized on as an opportunity to resolve the differences you mentioned.
You mentioned Mr. Sudani, so let me ask you a personal question about him, as you're his close advisor. Does he want to become prime minister again?
There isn't a politician who doesn't want to.
Does PM Sudani want to become prime minister of Iraq for a second term?
Of course he wants to, and he will participate strongly in the elections.
Will he head his own electoral list?
He will have a large list in the election and may well be one of the major competitors who secures the most votes, while also being one of the top candidates to become prime minister again.
Do you think he has struck an agreement with the Kurdistan Region to establish an alliance?
That's something that usually happens after the election, but in general, of course, after the election, all options will be available for him to discuss with all political parties - Kurds, Sunnis, Arabs, Shiites, and all other parties.
Thank you very much, Dr. Farhad Alaaldin, Advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister.
Thank you very much.
