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Analysis
Election campaign posters hang from a pedestrian bridge in Erbil. Photo: Bilind T. Abdullah/Rudaw
Millions of Iraqis will go to the polling stations on October 10 to choose their representatives for the parliament, hoping to fix a broken system that is unable to provide basic services for its citizens. The political parties that have been responsible for nearly two decades of failure of state institutions are pulling on age-old bonds to try and entice the disgruntled population into participating in the democratic exercise. The official turnout in 2018 was 44 percent, but many commentators believe the real figure was around 30 percent. This election could again see low participation.
Iraqis, including the Kurds, have always considered adherence to tribe and religion as part of their DNA and various forces in the last century have used these two elements to their advantage, from the British mandate following the First World War to the American Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in the aftermath of the destructive war of 2003.
In the Kurdistan Region and in particular Duhok province adjacent to the Turkish border, tribes and religious denominations rule supreme more than in any other locality in the region. Almost all the 31 candidates in the three constituencies of the province, including those from the religious minorities as well as nationalists and political Islamists, have made sure that their candidates are identified by their tribal affiliation. The province with just over 800,000 eligible voters is a stronghold of the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), but contested by the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) which follows the footsteps of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt.
“In this election most of the candidates are representatives of tribes, and in this election two issues are being used. One is religion and the other is tribe,” Jamal Chalki, an election analyst, told Rudaw’s Shahyan Tahseen on Monday. “If we look at the 3rd constituency, which is Amedi and Duhok, we have a number of candidates and one of them is Dr Khalil. He is the head of the Duski tribe. The society of Bahdinan [Duhok] is still a feudal system and is tribe driven. So when you have a Duski association, it means your success is guaranteed.”
Tribes have become an important component of the Peshmerga forces across the Kurdistan Region and the ruling parties often disregard the military law that bars the Peshmerga from involvement in party campaigning. Parties use commanders that come from powerful tribes for their own political gain.
As local power holders, the tribal chiefs in some areas across Kurdistan have strong sway over their men when it comes to voting, especially if the candidate is from their own tribe. The political parties whose top leadership mostly come from the same tribes know how to exploit these competing loyalties. Both the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have special offices that try to find resolutions for tribal disputes, often at the expense of the judicial system and in the process secure tribal loyalties for times of election and war.
“In the end, politics is about maintaining the balance between competing social forces and tribe is one of these forces. Civil society is another force … and religion is yet another,” Fehmi Selman a KDP candidate from the powerful Barwari tribe told Rudaw’s Naif Ramadhan on Monday. “This is how we see it, emphasizing the importance of any of these forces depends on the proportional impact of this force. When the tribe and the region have bigger impact on the general public, we attach special importance.”
While tribes were used mostly as cannon fodder in 20th century Iraq, they and their chiefs have become extremely influential under the post-2003 system that has elections nominally at its heart. With state institution building in tatters over the last 18 years, many in Iraq and in Kurdistan have come to conclude that their relation to their tribe is far more important than their relation with the dysfunctional institutions of the state.
“I don’t vote for candidates who are not from my tribe. I vote for my own tribe,” Zerevan Ibrahim, a government employee, told Rudaw from the city of Duhok. For Ibrahim, from the large Kochar tribe, his relation with the government is derived from the power of his tribe. “If my tribe is not strong, the government would not do anything for me.”
Efforts to appease the tribe and their chiefs happen not only in Duhok but in Erbil also and to a lesser extent in Sulaimani. Tribes in Erbil, a stronghold of the KDP since 2003, have their own significance. The PUK has tried to counter the KDP by courting influential figures within the Hardki and Bradosti tribes.
In Sulaimani, the least tribal area in the Kurdistan Region, political parties continue to sign up tribes to gather votes. On Tuesday the head of a branch of the Manmi tribe switched sides from the KDP to the PUK after a visit from a high ranking official. “We have been with the KDP … I am proud to switch to the PUK because for the last fifty years that we have been with the KDP no one has visited us … to check on us and to see what our needs are,” Bakr Ghafour Manmi, one of the tribal chiefs told PUK media. “I call on all family and relatives to vote for the PUK.”
For the Islamists of the KIU, religion takes center stage, but they are pragmatic and also keep an eye on tribal affiliation. In the last election, the KDP took 10 seats in Duhok and KIU took one, but hopes to fill two seats this time around. “We believe in people voting for them based on their competence … how much they have served people,” Khalil Ibrahim, a senior official from the KIU, told Rudaw on Monday.
The Islamists know that some of the tribesmen who are part of the ruling party camp are also swayed by religious discourse.
“So you have people in our society who could be from the ruling party, but the main discourse that affects them is religious discourse,” said the analyst Jamal Chalki. “If the KDP tries to use religion against the KIU, then its position would be very weak because the KDP campaigns more on nationalist causes and the KIU campaigns more on religious issues.”
Despite using religion and tribal affiliation to entice voters, the turnout may not be strong given the voting trend since 2003. “I don’t even believe in the process. Why would I vote?” a trader in his late 30s from the Zerari tribe told Rudaw English in Erbil. “The economic situation is bad and winter is approaching. If anyone offers me a barrel of heating oil, then I will vote for them.”
Asked how he would react if his tribal chief told him to vote for a specific candidate he replied, “I would make fun of them. They have benefited a lot from the parties but the ordinary people have not.”
Iraqis, including the Kurds, have always considered adherence to tribe and religion as part of their DNA and various forces in the last century have used these two elements to their advantage, from the British mandate following the First World War to the American Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in the aftermath of the destructive war of 2003.
In the Kurdistan Region and in particular Duhok province adjacent to the Turkish border, tribes and religious denominations rule supreme more than in any other locality in the region. Almost all the 31 candidates in the three constituencies of the province, including those from the religious minorities as well as nationalists and political Islamists, have made sure that their candidates are identified by their tribal affiliation. The province with just over 800,000 eligible voters is a stronghold of the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), but contested by the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) which follows the footsteps of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt.
“In this election most of the candidates are representatives of tribes, and in this election two issues are being used. One is religion and the other is tribe,” Jamal Chalki, an election analyst, told Rudaw’s Shahyan Tahseen on Monday. “If we look at the 3rd constituency, which is Amedi and Duhok, we have a number of candidates and one of them is Dr Khalil. He is the head of the Duski tribe. The society of Bahdinan [Duhok] is still a feudal system and is tribe driven. So when you have a Duski association, it means your success is guaranteed.”
Tribes have become an important component of the Peshmerga forces across the Kurdistan Region and the ruling parties often disregard the military law that bars the Peshmerga from involvement in party campaigning. Parties use commanders that come from powerful tribes for their own political gain.
As local power holders, the tribal chiefs in some areas across Kurdistan have strong sway over their men when it comes to voting, especially if the candidate is from their own tribe. The political parties whose top leadership mostly come from the same tribes know how to exploit these competing loyalties. Both the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have special offices that try to find resolutions for tribal disputes, often at the expense of the judicial system and in the process secure tribal loyalties for times of election and war.
“In the end, politics is about maintaining the balance between competing social forces and tribe is one of these forces. Civil society is another force … and religion is yet another,” Fehmi Selman a KDP candidate from the powerful Barwari tribe told Rudaw’s Naif Ramadhan on Monday. “This is how we see it, emphasizing the importance of any of these forces depends on the proportional impact of this force. When the tribe and the region have bigger impact on the general public, we attach special importance.”
While tribes were used mostly as cannon fodder in 20th century Iraq, they and their chiefs have become extremely influential under the post-2003 system that has elections nominally at its heart. With state institution building in tatters over the last 18 years, many in Iraq and in Kurdistan have come to conclude that their relation to their tribe is far more important than their relation with the dysfunctional institutions of the state.
“I don’t vote for candidates who are not from my tribe. I vote for my own tribe,” Zerevan Ibrahim, a government employee, told Rudaw from the city of Duhok. For Ibrahim, from the large Kochar tribe, his relation with the government is derived from the power of his tribe. “If my tribe is not strong, the government would not do anything for me.”
Efforts to appease the tribe and their chiefs happen not only in Duhok but in Erbil also and to a lesser extent in Sulaimani. Tribes in Erbil, a stronghold of the KDP since 2003, have their own significance. The PUK has tried to counter the KDP by courting influential figures within the Hardki and Bradosti tribes.
In Sulaimani, the least tribal area in the Kurdistan Region, political parties continue to sign up tribes to gather votes. On Tuesday the head of a branch of the Manmi tribe switched sides from the KDP to the PUK after a visit from a high ranking official. “We have been with the KDP … I am proud to switch to the PUK because for the last fifty years that we have been with the KDP no one has visited us … to check on us and to see what our needs are,” Bakr Ghafour Manmi, one of the tribal chiefs told PUK media. “I call on all family and relatives to vote for the PUK.”
For the Islamists of the KIU, religion takes center stage, but they are pragmatic and also keep an eye on tribal affiliation. In the last election, the KDP took 10 seats in Duhok and KIU took one, but hopes to fill two seats this time around. “We believe in people voting for them based on their competence … how much they have served people,” Khalil Ibrahim, a senior official from the KIU, told Rudaw on Monday.
The Islamists know that some of the tribesmen who are part of the ruling party camp are also swayed by religious discourse.
“So you have people in our society who could be from the ruling party, but the main discourse that affects them is religious discourse,” said the analyst Jamal Chalki. “If the KDP tries to use religion against the KIU, then its position would be very weak because the KDP campaigns more on nationalist causes and the KIU campaigns more on religious issues.”
Despite using religion and tribal affiliation to entice voters, the turnout may not be strong given the voting trend since 2003. “I don’t even believe in the process. Why would I vote?” a trader in his late 30s from the Zerari tribe told Rudaw English in Erbil. “The economic situation is bad and winter is approaching. If anyone offers me a barrel of heating oil, then I will vote for them.”
Asked how he would react if his tribal chief told him to vote for a specific candidate he replied, “I would make fun of them. They have benefited a lot from the parties but the ordinary people have not.”
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