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Some thought post-2003 Iraq would see the establishment of a democratic, strong, sovereign state. Instead, the country has become a battleground for foreign adversaries, the nest of armed proxy groups, and the economic dependent of its neighbours.
In 2020 alone, the country has played host to a cascade of domestic militia rocket attacks, a spike in US-Iran tension that brought the wider region to the brink of war, and economic debilitation caused in part by the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of global oil prices, in part by long-term state economic mismanagement.
To make matters worse, Turkey launched an air campaign dubbed Operation Claw-Eagle on June 15, striking suspected Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) targets in the Kurdistan Region and disputed territories of northern Iraq. It launched ground invasion Operation Claw-Tiger two days later, putting Turkish commando boots on Iraqi ground.
A day after Turkish airstrikes began, Iran struck areas of the Kurdistan Region close to its border, targeting suspected positions of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) and PKK. Media affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that the Turkish and Iranian airstrikes were conducted with coordination.
Iraq’s government released a statement last week calling on Turkey to end its operations. Turkish ambassador to Iraq Fatih Yildiz has been summoned twice by Iraq's foreign ministry to answer for his country's air and ground campaigns. The Iraqi government has yet to release a statement condemning the violation of sovereignty by Iranian artillery, though it did summon the Iranian ambassador to answer for the strikes on June 18.
Despite condemnations of foreign operations by the governments of federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, the strikes have the consent of both, Iraqi security analyst Husham al-Hashimi told Rudaw English on Friday.
“Baghdad and Erbil have both given Turkey and Iran the green light to conduct airstrikes,” Hashimi said.
“It is a logical step by Baghdad. In return, Turkey will hand over senior Daesh (ISIS) leaders to the Iraqi government in coming months,” he added.
The Kurdistan Region and northern Iraq’s disputed territories host both Turkish military bases and fighters of the PKK, a militant group fighting for Kurdish rights in Turkey. Amid its current operations, Turkey announced on June 18 that it would increase the number of its bases in northern Iraq.
It was only a few years ago that the PKK fought alongside the Iraqi security forces, US-led Global Coalition and Peshmerga forces to beat Islamic State (ISIS) back from the thresholds of Erbil and Baghdad.
“Though the PKK fought alongside Iraqi and Peshmerga forces against Daesh [Islamic State], they are considered a terrorist organization by neighboring countries,” Hashimi told Rudaw English on Friday.
With many of the PKK’s fighters nestled in the high peaks of the Kurdistan Region’s Qandil mountains, estimates for their numbers across Iraq are difficult to make. Hashimi puts the number of PKK fighters in Iraq including the Kurdistan Region at between 8,500 and 10,000, distributed across 81 points and bases.
Iran-backed militias: Impunity no more?
Iraq houses dozens of domestic-based, foreign-backed militias, many of the units within the Shiite-majority Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF, known in Arabic as Hashd al-Shaabi).
A predominantly Shiite network of around 60 paramilitaries, the PMF was created in 2014 following a fatwa, or religious call to action, from Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in response to the ISIS insurgency.
Although the PMF has nominally been brought under the umbrella of the official Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), parts of the PMF continue to act beyond Iraq’s military apparatus.
While some units of the PMF are under the control of Iraqi Commander-in-Chief Mustafa al-Kadhimi, others are under the full command of Tehran.
Iran-backed PMF units have increased their anti-US activity inside Iraq since the US assassinations of high-profile Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and top PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in January.
Units under Iranian command have been accused of launching rocket attacks on Iraqi military bases hosting US and coalition military personnel, as well as the US Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone.
Iraqi bases hosting US troops have frequently been targeted by rockets since then - though attacks have lessened to an extent since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
National security officials have issued strong condemnation of the attacks. Spokesperson to the commander-in-chief Yehia Rasool described them as “terrorist acts” in a press conference on Tuesday.
Putting that rhetoric into action, Kadhimi ordered Iraqi counter-terrorism forces to launch a raid against the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia's Baghdad headquarters on Friday. Fourteen of the group’s fighters were detained over recent rocket attacks on the Green Zone and Baghdad’s airport.
Some Iraq analysts have described the raid as a gesture by Kadhimi to show the Americans that he is serious about tackling threats to Iraqi sovereignty, between rounds of US-Iraq strategic dialogue talks. Other analysts described the move as one beyond show - a serious warning to the groups who launch rocket attacks in Iraq.
But less than four days since the raid took place, all of the detained fighters have been released, with no official statement made by the Iraqi government on the results of the investigation they vowed to conduct.
In yet another breach of Iraqi sovereignty, the presence of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq prompted Israel to target bases and weapons depots in the country last year.
Dialogue for ‘an independent and sovereign Iraq’
On April 8, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a Washington press briefing that his country would hold strategic dialogue with Iraq in June - with “the future presence of the United States forces in that country and how best to support an independent and sovereign Iraq” on the table for discussion.
The first round of dialogue, which took place on June 11, resulted in an agreement to reduce the number of American troops in Iraq in the coming months.
Agreement on the shrink in troop numbers follows US transfer of Iraqi bases in March and April of this year to domestic forces. The US-led Global Coalition said that the transfers were part of a general repositioning in response to successes in the campaign to defeat ISIS and to protect personnel amid the COVID-19 pandemic – not in response to rocket attacks.
Troop number reduction at least partly fulfills a call long made by some Iran-backed political and armed parties for US troops to leave Iraq.
However, some Iran-backed political groups were not satisfied with the Iraqi negotiating committee, led by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdul-Karim Hashim, accusing the committee of being too pro-American.
“Most of the Iraqi committee that negotiated with the US in the strategic dialogue hold American citizenship, so they cannot negotiate for the sake of Iraq,” Qais al-Khazali, secretary general of the Iran-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia said in a speech on June 13.
Hashim, the lead negotiator for Iraq, told al-Sharqiya in a televised interview last week that he had had virtually no in-person contact with any Iranian officials prior to the strategic dialogue, meeting the Iranian ambassador to Baghdad only once, but had frequent contact with the Americans.
Iraq’s lead negotiator recalled his single meeting with the Iranian ambassador with disdain.
“I unfortunately met him once,” Hashim told al-Sharqiya. “However I have met the US ambassador to Baghdad more than once, and I have met US embassy staff many times.”
The second round of US-Iraq strategic dialogue is set to take place in Washington next month. Whether Turkish and Iranian military action will be on the agenda is unknown.
But with the exception of condemnation from USCIRF, a bipartisan government religious body, Turkey’s NATO ally has kept tight-lipped about its stance on current Turkish operations in the Kurdistan Region and the rest of Iraq.
The lack of condemnation could well be read as American consent for Turkey’s military campaign to continue.
Editing by Shahla Omar
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