The new law in theory gives greater room for independent candidates in future elections, free of the yoke of the large parties that have ruled Iraq since 2003. Reforming the outdated electoral system was one of the main demands of protesters who first took to the streets on October 1.
The new law could make politicians more accountable to the people by localizing elections. Candidates will be elected from districts, rather than at the provincial level. Each district with a population of 100,000 will have a parliamentary seat and smaller population areas will be amalgamated with neighbouring centres. Experts warn, however, that the new system could hand power over to tribal leaders and entrenched parties with militia backing.
Under the old system, each province constituted one big electoral circle and parties with the most votes won the province. Parties also had the power to move around votes among their candidates. If a parliamentary seat became vacant, for whatever reason, the party could fill it with its own member who was next in line. Now, voters cast a ballot directly for individual candidates and, if the winner cannot enter parliament, then the second place finisher will fill the seat.
The new law passed with a majority vote in the parliament, though all the Kurdish parties, except for New Generation’s only MP, walked out in protest. Their main objection was over Article 15, which details the running of independents and electoral circles. Some Sunni lawmakers also walked out.
Another point of contention is Article 16, concerning representation of women. The 25 percent quota of seats reserved for women remains unchanged and fewer women could end up in the legislature as a man could take the seat of a woman if she has to pull out of the parliament, for whatever reason.
The new law was celebrated as a success by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, a main backer of the reforms. Other Shiite parties also celebrated the new law as a success for the protesters.
More than 510 people, including protesters and security force members, have been killed in the protests since October 1, and 17,000 have been injured. The protesters won their first victory when Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigned under pressure, after less than a year in office, and parliament is struggling find a replacement who would also be accepted in the streets and squares where demonstrators are encamped.
The new electoral law, however, appears to be an amendment of the old law, rather than an entirely new measure. More than half, 27, of the 50 articles are lifted from the old law, either exactly the same or with little amendment. It also has many gaps that could be exploited by the political parties the protesters want to see weakened.
“Although the bill is an important opportunity for individuals in society outside ruling parties for participation [in elections], the political ramifications of this bill will not be limited to that and can pave the road for the loss of some votes and injustice,” Ziryan Rojhelati, head of Rudaw’s Research Center, explained in a December 24 report.
“Making a place for independent candidates can have a positive result for democracy in Iraq to go forward since individuals outside parties can enter the parliament, but this is one side of the coin, and the other side tells a different story,” added Rojhelati.
Many of the ruling parties in Iraq have guns, militias, and large financial resources. In the past, independents had no way to compete on a provincial level and the new law may not change this situation. For one, influential local personalities, including tribal leaders and party loyalists, could usurp this opportunity provided to independents, repeating a vicious circle.
“In the short term, some of the big parties, which have both forces and money, could, through financial and media support, pave the road for their independent loyal candidate, and have their chances increased against a normal independent,” Rojhelati explained.
Moreover, Iraq is still a tribal country, and tribal clashes are common in southern Iraq where local sheikhs wield major influence. There are hundreds of tribes in Iraq, and thus hundreds of tribal leaders, who now have a golden opportunity to gain political power, according to Rojhelati. “Thus, insisting on all lists being independents alone could produce results that will not necessarily serve democracy,” he said.
The Kurdish blocs who walked out of the parliamentary vote said their opposition to the law stemmed from similar concerns, “making Iraq regress back to tribal and local affiliations, cutting the road to qualified and independent individuals,” the Kurdish parties said in a statement to media on Tuesday.
The process of drawing the electoral circles in a diverse country like Iraq is a challenge of its own.
“I hope those ululating for the electoral law attempt to redraw the map of electoral circles, for them to find out the maze they discover themselves in a multi-ethnic country like Iraq. This maze will be a recipe for catastrophe,” Yahya Al-Kubaisi, an Iraqi analyst, said in a tweet on Tuesday.
Many districts have mixed populations, including Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and other minorities. Some provinces are disputed between Baghdad and Erbil, and Iraq hasn’t had a census for decades.
“The law stipulates that some districts, whose population is not enough for a parliamentary seat, have to be enjoined with an adjacent district. This enjoinment for these areas, who have a mixed sectarian and ethnic population, will at least result in an increase in local rivalries,” warned Rojhelati.
In an “idealistic scenario,” the new system could for the first time in Iraq lead to cross-sectarian, cross-ethnic electoral alliances, according to Rojhelati. But there is a danger it could also lead to further divisions, warned Ahmed al-Jerbah, a Sunni MP from Nineveh.
“There are large administrative issues between districts and sub-districts, and hence, voting on Article 15 of the electoral law will lead the country to the unknown and division,” Jerbah said in a press conference on Tuesday.
While some protesters welcomed the new law as a partial victory, others on social media are calling for amendments, especially to district-based voting, saying every 100,000 people, irrespective of administrative divisions, should constitute a seat in the parliament.
