Iraq’s presidential election session and possible scenarios

After the Save the Homeland Alliance announced their nominations for the positions of the Iraqi presidency and premiership on Wednesday, the country’s two competing blocs, represented by the Save the Homeland Alliance and the Coordination Framework's National Persistence Alliance, have entered a frantic contest to bolster their numbers before the presidential election session scheduled for Saturday. 

The Sadrist Movement, the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), also known as the Save the Homeland Alliance, on Wednesday shared their candidates for the Iraqi presidency and position of prime minister, selecting the KDP's Reber Ahmed, and the Sadrist candidate Mohammad Jaafar al-Sadr for the latter.

As a result, the tripartite alliance is currently trying to persuade members of Iraq’s parliament from smaller parties and independents to back their candidate and complete the constitutional quorum (220 deputies) required for the upcoming session. 

The Coordination Framework, in turn, is seeking to discourage members from attending, using all means necessary to achieve their goal.

Possible scenarios:

In light of the ongoing movement by competitors, whether announced or occurring behind closed doors, several scenarios could be predicted to play out in the coming days, including:

1- The Save the Homeland Alliance would be able to gather enough representatives to ensure the required quorum (the presence of 220 deputies), thus passing its candidate for the post of President of the Republic and assigning its candidate to form the new government. 

2- The Save the Homeland Alliance may succeed in attracting enough members for its endeavor to hold the session and ensure the vote on the alliance's candidate for the post of president. However, they could fail to secure the 220 votes required to win in the first round as stipulated by the constitution.

That means the second round of voting is needed. And, in this case, there are two possibilities:

- The first: The quorum is intact, the second round of voting takes place, and the candidate of the Save the Homeland Alliance will win the post of President of the Republic after obtaining a majority of the votes present, and the prime minister will be assigned.

- The second: The quorum is broken by some independents leaving the session, and the vote in the second round will not occur. 

Here, the Alliance will face several options:

(a) The session remains open until enough members are persuaded to return to the session on the same day or the following day, i.e. Sunday. 

(b) Keeping the session open until an agreement is reached with the other parties. 

(c) Adjourning the session until further notice, thus continuing the political impasse and maintaining the caretaker government.

3- The lack of a quorum, which leads to the postponement of the session for several days, allowing the two sides to try to persuade small blocs and the independents to participate or boycott. In this case, the demands will be high, and generous offers will be forced on the table.

4- Postponement of the session for several days due to the lack of quorum. Meanwhile, communication channels will be reactivated, and preparations made for a new round of dialogue between the Sadrists and the Framework to reach a possible agreement.

5- Failure to reach quorum, postponement of the session for an indefinite period, and the political deadlock will remain in place for an unknown period. It may take several months, with no real solution on the horizon, which could eventually lead to the dissolution of parliament and an early election.

Saturday's session will be undoubtedly fateful for all political blocs and forces on both sides. It may mark the beginning of a new phase that Iraq has not seen since 2005. It is most likely that it will not be less dangerous than its predecessors, if not the most dangerous period, not least for the country's future and its people at stake.

Farhad Alaaldin is the chairman of the Iraqi Advisory Council. He was the political adviser to former Iraqi President Fuad Masum, the former chief of staff to the KRG prime minister from 2009 to 2011, and the former senior adviser to the KRG prime minister from 2011 to 2012.