What does an Erdogan-Assad rapprochement mean for Syrian Kurds?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stepped up his efforts to normalize relations with Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad whom he labeled as a “terrorist” at the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Now, Erdogan desperately seeks a rapprochement with Assad. Should Syrian Kurds be worried about a potential reconciliation between both neighboring countries who see the Kurdish administration as their mutual foe?  

“Turkey played a negative role in the beginning of the Syrian crisis and had the role that led to a division in Syrian society regarding the solution and vision for the future of Syria. Therefore, after 13 years of crisis that did not lead to any political solution that guarantees the rights of all Syrians,” Sinam Mohamad, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) representative to the US, told Rudaw English. 

The SDC is the political arm of the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - the de facto army of the Kurdish administration in northeast Syria (Rojava).

The Syrian Kurds did not clash with the regime when they seized control of their land, as Assad focused on rebel attacks near Damascus and deployed most of their forces based in Rojava to defend the capital. When Turkey started backing the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which was later rebranded as the Syrian National Army (SNA), its objective was to unseat Assad but it later ordered its Syrian proxies to fight the Kurds. Disagreements over who should run the Turkey-held areas has often caused infighting between the SNA fractions. 

When the Syrian civil war erupted, Erdogan, who was prime minister at the time, was quick to declare Assad as his arch-enemy and called him “terrorist” for brutally oppressing anti-government protesters in the beginning of the swift uprising against his throne. Turkey also backed anti-regime rebels, helping them control swathes of Syria’s northwest. 

"It is impossible to continue with Assad. How can we embrace the future with a Syrian president who has killed close to a million of his citizens?" Erdogan said in late 2017.

However, Erdogan has made a huge U-turn early this year, repeatedly making overtures to Assad to mend severed ties, but the latter seems uninterested in any reconciliations with Ankara unless Turkey withdraws troops from Syria and stops supporting rebels - whom he labels “terrorists.” The Syrian president said in his latest remark on the process that he does not care about the meeting as much as he does about its “content.” 

“Turkey's goal is to undermine the self-administration project and the decentralized pluralistic model for Syria,” Mohamad added, referring to the Democratic Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (DAANES). The administration, which has rebranded itself several times, was established after Kurds seized the regime's downfall as a golden opportunity to assert themselves and finally attain the cultural and political rights they had been denied with the oppressive policies of Syria’s successive governments. 

Erdogan and Assad may not see eye to eye on many things, but they both consider Kurdish fighters in Rojava as “terrorists” and a potential joint of forces against them is plausible - but not in the near future. Turkey’s potential withdrawal from Syria - as insisted by Assad - may take a long time and such a move could be risky because it is against the will of nationalist Turks. Erdogan and Assad will not seek a military campaign against Kurds as long as US troops are present in Syria and it’s not in Washington’s favor to withdraw, as its regional arch-foe Iran is getting stronger in the region.

Turkey has carried out three major military campaigns against the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the backbone of the SDF, since 2016 with the help of its Syrian proxies, invading several Kurdish cities, such as Afrin, Sari Kani (Ras al-Ain), and Gire Spi (Tal Abyad). The Turkish army also constantly hits YPG positions in northern Syria and Erdogan has threatened a fourth offensive against the Kurdish fighters there, but it seems to be a long shot due to economic and political turbulence at home. 

The Syrian regime and the YPG have largely avoided military confrontations, but Damascus-supported militants have clashed with the Kurdish force in the eastern province of Deir ez-Zor and there have been several limited altercations between regime forces and the Kurdish Asayish (security) forces in Rojava. 

Tuncer Bakirhan, co-chair of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), last month called on Ankara to include Rojava’s ruling Democratic Union Party (PYD), political arm of the YPG, in talks with Syria. 

“Let there be talks, but these talks should not exclude the Kurds or suppress their demands. Let Erdogan meet with Assad, but also meet with the PYD,” he said in a televised interview. 

Turkey invited PYD co-chair Salih Muslim to Ankara in 2013, unsuccessfully seeking an agreement. Ahmet Davutoglu, then foreign minister of Turkey, said at the time that Ankara informed the Kurdish politician of its three principal demands: do not support the regime, do not be involved in any “fait accompli” process until democratic elections, and do not be part of activities that would threaten Turkey’s security.

Turkey believes that the PYD has acted against Ankara’s last two demands through the establishment of self-governance and allegedly acting like the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) - which is a banned group in Turkey for its decades-long war with Ankara in pursuit of Kurdish greater rights. 

Rojava ‘open’ to talks 

There have been several failed talks between Rojava and regime officials to reach an agreement on the future of their relations. The PYD has been excluded from UN-sponsored peace talks between the opposition and Damascus due to Turkey’s pressure.

Mazloum Abdi, commander-in-chief of the SDF, said in a statement on Saturday, celebrating the 12th anniversary of the Rojava uprising against the regime, that they are ready for talks with everyone.
 
“[We] in the Syrian Democratic Forces and the components of North and East Syria have our basic principles and rights that must be considered, and we must go together to dialogue to reach a radical solution to the crisis,” he said.

“We are ready for dialogue with all forces, including Turkey, and we will support any dialogue that leads to the cessation of fighting and a political solution to the crisis,” he added, noting that they seek the unity of Syrian territorial integrity. 

Asked if Rojava is willing to be part of Turkey-Syria talks of reconciliation, the SDC representative said they are “always open to dialogue in order to reach a political solution that guarantees the rights of all Syrians.”

However, talks between Ankara and Rojava seem unattainable now. Even the Turkish main opposition does not endorse such talks. 

“Let me say this clearly in Syria, we do not meet or hold meetings with anyone other than Bashar Assad's regime. For us, Bashar Assad is the legitimate power in Syria,” Ilhan Uzgel, an assistant to the Republican People’s Party (CHP), told Rudaw on Wednesday.

Syria’s pro-Ankara opposition is worried that an Erdogan-Assad rapprochement would be at their cost because one of the regime’s preconditions for talks with Turkey is an end to Ankara’s support for the opposition. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the Syrian opposition last week that Turkey will not abandon them, but not everyone buys this in Turkey-held northwest Syria. 

The Kurdish National Council (ENKS/KNC), an umbrella group of Kurdish opposition parties in Rojava and a member of the pro-Turkey opposition, warns that if the regime returns to Kurdish areas as result of a potential agreement between Ankara and Damascus Assad will clamp down on his opponents. 

“We have a clear stance on this regime. The return of the regime to these [Kurdish] areas will result in huge attacks on our areas,” Sulaiman Oso, president of the ENKS, told Rudaw English.

However, he noted that the YPG and pro-Turkey opposition rules are no better than that of Assad, bringing numerous attacks on ENKS offices in YPG-held areas as an example of the “failure” of the administration. Dozens of the Kurdish coalition’s members have been “abducted” and many of them remain unaccounted for. 

Despite criticism of their rule, the DAANES has been praised for improving women rights and ushering in coexistence of people from various ethnic and religious backgrounds. It has sought local elections in pursuit of more legitimacy but Turkey sees the move as a danger to its national security and the US does not support the process, citing lack of ground for fair and free polls. 

The ENKS has blamed the YPG-affiliated Revolutionary Youths, a paramilitary group, for most of the attacks on its offices and the “abduction” of its members. 

A series of power sharing and unity-seeking talks, sponsored by Americans, between the ENKS and PYD in the last decade have yielded nothing and the talks have been completely stalled now. Both sides have blamed one another for the failure. 

“Turkey and the US have presented two failed administrative examples in areas they control,” Oso said, adding that people initially held out hope that they would bring change to the country. “Numerous civilian people wish for the return of the regime and say that their lives were much better during the regime’s reign. These two failed examples left people no choice but to serve the regime.” 

There is opposition within Kurds but they all find themselves in the same boat, rejecting the handover of power to Assad in Kurdish areas. 

Oso said the ENKS is unequivocally against the return of the regime because many of their members have taken part in anti-regime activities and fear that the regime could seek reprisal. 

Amy Austin Holmes, Research Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University who has penned a book about the establishment of the Kurdish administration in Syria, believes that Erdogan wants to “crush” Rojava.

"By pursuing rapprochement with Assad, Erdogan may calculate that he can crush the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration,” said the researcher who has visited Rojava.

“During my field research in northern Syria, I've personally interviewed displaced people from all backgrounds - Kurds, Yezidis, Arabs, Assyrians - who were driven from their homes during the Turkish interventions in 2018 and 2019,” she added, referring to Turkey’s last two military campaigns in northern Syria. She noted that if Turkey accepts Assad’s call for the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria, the IDPs could finally return to their homes in areas invaded by Ankara and its proxies. 

Turkey’s exit from Syria has negatives and positives for Kurds - they would love to see Turkey leave the country, but they don’t want to see a Damascus-Ankara alliance against their hard-won achievements. 


US role

Donald Trump, former US president, ordered the withdrawal of US troops from Syria days after Turkey launched its latest major military campaign against the YPG in northern Syria. Washington abandoned Kurds in parts of Rojava during the clashes but Trump later decided to keep a “small” number of troops in Syria. There are around 900 American soldiers in Syria.

“Turkey and Syria share a common interest in pushing the U.S. out of Syria and disarming the YPG. But they have many disagreements over Northwest Syria, which is helping the Kurds preserve their quasi independence in Northeast Syria today,” Jashua Landis, who leads the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and closely monitors Syria, told Rudaw English.

“All the same, the Kurds cannot be sure that if Trump wins [the presidential election], which now looks likely, that he will not seek to withdraw US troops from Syria. He was unable to do so during his first term as president and it is likely that he will be unable to do so in his second term, but one can never be sure,” he added. 

Landis warned that Trump may seek to improve Washington-Ankara relations “at the expense of the Kurds.”

Rojava officials have on several occasions condemned the Americans for their “silence” in the face of Turkish attacks on the Kurdish region. 

Washington does not want to normalize ties with Assad and does not endorse any rapprochements with the regime but urges countries who seek a detente with Assad to use the engagement to “improve the humanitarian, human rights and security situation for Syrians,” a State Department spokesperson said last week.

Joel Rayburn is the former US Special Envoy for Syria and the director of the American Center for Levant Studies. He believes that Erdogan’s efforts to normalize ties with Assad are fruitless.

“I do not put much stock in the idea that there is going to be some grand bargain among Russia, Türkiye [Turkey], and Assad,” he told Rudaw English. 

“Türkiye’s aims and interests in Syria remain incompatible with those of Bashar al Assad and [Russian President] Vladimir Putin,” he added.

Domestic pressures are likely contributing to Erdogan's push to mend relations with Assad. There is a growing anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey - mostly due to the fact that Syrians are making the country’s already-crippling economy worse by taking away job opportunities from Turkish citizens. Sending Syrians to their homes was a heated subject during the May 2023 presidential vote. Erdogan’s party and his opposition rivals vowed to send the refugees back to Syria but each had a different mechanism. Erdogan won that vote but lost this year’s March local elections, a loss mainly associated with the worsening economic crisis. 

Moscow is the main backer of Assad, helping him to remain in power. Russia also acts as a mediator between Turkey and Syria. It is not clear how a potential rapprochement would benefit Putin, but he desperately needs Erdogan’s support amid Western sanctions on Russia due its war with Ukraine.   

“Assad cannot be trusted, and any agreement he would sign would not be worth the paper it was written on. His regime will be an enemy to Türkiye for as long as he is in power, and I’m quite sure Türkiye understands this,” asserted Rayburn, the retired US army officer. 

Although Turkey and Syria seem to be flying blind in their reconciliation talks, the achievements of Syrian Kurds are always at stake.