Turkey’s fresh military campaign against the PKK in Duhok: Why now?

Turkey launched its first military operation against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the newly-established autonomous Kurdistan Region in the fall of 1992 with the involvement of thousands of troops, hoping to remove the Kurdish rebels on its borders with Iraq and Iran. Three decades on, Ankara launched the latest phase of its Operation Claw against the group in the Region last week. Some questions that emerge are why is the Turkish army conducting a fresh campaign now? And what can it change on the ground?

The PKK was formed in 1978, stating its goal of obtaining increased political and cultural rights for Kurds in Turkey. It spent the first six years fighting other Turkey-based Kurdish political parties, to pave the way for its dream of leading the Kurdish movement in the country. In 1984, the PKK began its armed struggle against Ankara inside the country while boosting its camps in what is now the Kurdistan Region, following an agreement with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).

Turkey’s first military operation targeted the PKK positions in the Khakurk region on its borders with the Kurdistan Region and Iran, as well as in surrounding areas. Turkey had previously carried out attacks against the group in the Region, but not in the form of a long lasting operation.

Three decades on, Turkey has been able to curb the rebels’ activities at home and the use of drones, and other sophisticated military technology in their attacks, has significantly limited the PKK’s capabilities on the battlefield. Despite Turkey’s military superiority, the group is still perceived as a threat by Ankara which frequently targets them and their alleged Syrian branch, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) - the backbone of the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Ankara launched Operation Claw against the PKK in Khakurk in May 2019. This was followed by Operation Claw-Tiger in June 2020. The third edition of the offensive was a ground and air cross-border operation, dubbed Operation Claw-Lightning and Operation Claw-Thunderbolt, launched in April 2021. All of these operations focused on the PKK’s positions in the Kurdistan Region’s Duhok province.

The latest edition of the offensive, dubbed Operation Claw-Lock, was announced on Monday, targeting PKK hideouts in the same province. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed on Wednesday that “soon there will not be a place called Qandil,” referring to a mountain on Kurdistan Region’s border with Iran where the PKK headquarters is located. 

Murat Karayilan, a top PKK commander, was quoted by the group’s media on Thursday as saying that their current fight with the Turkish army is one of “survival”, and that, “we have confidence in ourselves, we will be victorious.” 

Why now?

The latest military operation is carried out at a time when the world is occupied with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has surged fuel and food prices in the world. On one hand, Turkey is mediating talks between both sides, and on the other hand it seeks a deal with Erbil to export its natural gas to Europe where there is a desperate need for alternatives to Russian natural gas.

Erdogan is facing economic and political challenges at home and such military operations are often seen as a means to distract the public from the internal issues. The anti-PKK operations are strongly hailed by nationalist Turks and Turkey is expected to hold general elections next year. Most of the opposition parties have recently joined forces to end Erdogan’s decades-long rule in 2023, and the President has to please his far-right ally, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), through such military campaigns to remain in power. 

Private sector security analyst Alex Almeida believes that the fresh operation is just the latest edition of the annual “Claw” campaigns.

“The Turkish military traditionally undertakes a major cross-border offensive during the spring to preempt PKK infiltration into Turkey. This operation is the latest in the series of Operation ‘Claw’  annual offensives that began in 2019. Like the other recent cross-border offensives, the aim is to consolidate a Turkish-garrisoned buffer zone inside the Kurdistan Region, pushing the PKK back from the border and reducing their infiltration into Turkey,” Almeida told Rudaw English via email on Wednesday.

However, a Kurdish politician who used to be close friends with the PKK’s jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan decades ago, said that Turkey’s latest operation is a preparation for its alleged full-scale operation, expected to commence in 2023, to regain control of Iraqi land which used to be part of the Ottoman Empire.

“I believe this operation is a preparation for the [potential] extensive operation announced by Turkey’s president, defence minister and intelligence head who say that the Treaty of Lausanne and Sykes-Picot Agreement will end in 2023. Therefore, they are planning an extensive attack to invade Kurdistan, beginning from Mosul to Kirkuk,” Mohammed Amin Penjwini told Rudaw English on Wednesday.

The Treaty of Lausanne was signed in 1923 between the Ottoman Empire and Western allies, recognizing the boundaries of modern Turkey. The allies had initially demanded autonomy for Turkey’s Kurds but later dropped their demand. The Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916 laid down the foundation of today’s nation states in the Middle East but deprived the Kurds of their dream of an independent state.

Celebrating the 98th anniversary of the Treaty of Lausanne, Erdogan said last year that Turkey is determined to enter 2023 as a “stronger, more independent, and more prosperous country economically, militarily, politically and diplomatically.” 

Erdogan has previously criticised the treaty for leaving his country too small. His country’s involvement in conflicts of the region, especially in Syria and Libya, is seen as an intention to regain control of areas which were under the control of Erdogan’s Ottoman ancestors. 

“In Kirkuk, Turkey has established a military force from Turkmens to prepare them for the time when this attack kicks off so that they can control Kirkuk. Turkey is using the PKK as an excuse to control oil wells and the source of natural gas of Southern Kurdistan,” added the Kurdish veteran politician, referring to the Kurdistan Region and areas disputed between Erbil and Baghdad.

Penjwini also believes that the operation is aimed at pressuring key actors who oppose the Kurdistan Region’s attempts to export its oil to Europe through Turkey to reconsider their decision, naming the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which controls almost half of the gas, as well as Baghdad, Tehran and Moscow.

Kurdish officials have expressed their readiness to export gas to Europe as it seeks alternatives to Russian gas due to its invasion of Ukraine. PM Masrour Barzani met with his British counterpart on Tuesday in London. “Prime Minister Barzani spoke about his aspiration to export energy to Europe, and the Prime Minister lauded his efforts to help reduce Western reliance on Russian oil and gas,” read a statement by Boris Johnson’s office. 

Turkey said in 2020 that it had established nearly 40 military bases in the Kurdistan Region, publishing a map which showed their locations but it was soon deleted. Ankara set up further military bases in the Region later that year. Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT), a human rights organisation which monitors Turkey’s operations in the Kurdistan Region, said on Wednesday that Turkey has “tried” to build five more bases in Duhok province. 

CPT Iraqi Kurdistan team is publishing a map of the Turkish Claw-Lock military operation with the latest updates.#twitterkurds #Kurdistan #Iraq #Erdogan pic.twitter.com/5WJJS2YQ1i

— CPT Iraqi Kurdistan (@cptiraq) April 20, 2022

Bilgay Duman, an analyst at Turkey’s pro-government ORSAM think tank, told Rudaw English via WhatsApp on Friday that the timing of the operation does not matter. According to Duman the fact that Ankara has used high military technology in the fight against the PKK after 2017 means that the operations can be carried out in any season.

What changes can the operation bring?

Duman also said that Turkey’s aims in the operation include the “eradication” of PKK fighters, believing that this will help Kurdish families in Duhok return to their villages which have been emptied due to the conflict.

Kurdistan Region’s top officials have often blamed the PKK for the displacement of villagers and their inability to return. Clashes between Ankara and the PKK in Duhok province have emptied hundreds of villages, according to official figures. 

London-based Middle East Eye online news outlet cited an unnamed Turkish military source as saying that the aim of Operation Claw-Lock is to seize Zap area, the last remaining pathway for the PKK from the Kurdistan Region into Turkey. 

“The operation’s objectives are pretty clear: destroying all the PKK camps in these areas and establishing bases, isolating the Turkish-Iraqi border,” the source said. “This will completely end PKK's infiltrations into Turkey.”

The PKK has announced the death of four of its fighters in Duhok since Monday, with three of them being killed in Zap - this could indicate the intensity of fighting there. 

Adding the word “lock” to its latest operation could indicate that Turkey seeks to end its decades-long conflict with the PKK this time but the PKK has threatened to open the doors of war in Turkey’s metropolises like Istanbul if Ankara continues its operations. 

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