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Analysis
Images of the Peshmerga, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and US troops. Photos: AP; Graphic: Rudaw
Kurds have been able to assert some autonomy in Iraq and Syria thanks to the support they received from the West, especially the United States. The Kurdistan Region was established in 1992 following a no-fly zone imposed by the US and its allies over northern Iraq. And the Rojava administration now controls the northeast of Syria after they fought the Islamic State group (ISIS) with the aid of the US-led global coalition. However, Kurds on both sides of the border have been disappointed by Washington. There have been crucial moments when they did not receive the support they had expected or hoped for.
When federal Iraqi forces fled ISIS' advance in 2014, the Kurdistan Region expanded its area of control as Peshmerga forces stepped in to secure areas like oil-rich Kirkuk. In 2017, the Region decided to hold an independence referendum, hoping that the US and other Western countries would protect them if Baghdad sought retaliation. Weeks after the referendum, however, Iraqi forces and pro-Iran militia groups attacked the Peshmerga, forcing them out of most of the disputed areas. The US, which had warned Kurds not to seek independence, did not intervene.
Two years later, when Turkey declared war against Kurdish forces in Rojava, the Donald Trump administration seemingly gave Ankara the green light and US troops abandoned their positions in the very north of Syria. This paved the way for Turkey to launch a military campaign against the Kurdish forces in October 2019 and seize control of a stretch of the border and the towns of Sari Kani (Ras al-Ain) and Gire Spi (Tal Abyad).
In both cases, the US was lambasted by Kurds on social media for betraying them. Some officials within the Trump administration also slammed the president for abandoning the Kurds.
With the passage of time, Kurds have continued to rely on and develop their relations with the US. However, America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s lightning offensive across the country and seizure of Kabul reminded Kurds of 2017 and 2019. Dramatic scenes of Afghans risking their lives at Kabul airport to escape the country sparked fears among many Kurds that Rojava or the Kurdistan Region could be the next Afghanistan.
Kurdistan Region
There are 2,500 US troops in Iraq, including in the Kurdistan Region, as part of the war against ISIS. US and Iraqi officials held the latest round of strategic talks in Washington in late July, capped off with a meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and US President Joe Biden, where they decided the US will withdraw all of its combat forces and formally shift to an advisory role.
“The delegations decided, following recent technical talks, that the security relationship will fully transition to a training, advising, assisting, and intelligence-sharing role, and that there will be no U.S. forces with a combat role in Iraq by December 31, 2021,” read a joint statement. It is not clear if this will mean a change in numbers of troops on the ground.
Peshmerga commander Sirwan Barzani told Rudaw English that the US presence is a federal issue and any agreement made by Baghdad will affect the whole country, including the Kurdistan Region.
“This issue is related to Iraq. The strategic agreement was signed. As far as we know, they [the US] have an agreement with Iraq and there is no discussion of withdrawal – only their mission has changed from combat forces to advisory forces. So far, only this exists and there is no withdrawal,” he said.
“We have heard from meetings that nothing will change and they will maintain their plan and continue supporting Iraqi forces and Peshmerga to observe Daesh terrorists. Their support and coordination will continue,” Barzani said.
The American assistance includes drone surveillance, he added.
Bilal Wahab, Wagner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes that the US is committed to staying the course in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, as well as Syria, and leading the fight against ISIS.
“The challenge set is qualitatively different, both in Iraq and Syria. Politically, moreover, Biden will not afford to venture into yet another withdrawal, which should reassure Iraqis and Syrians. The greater damage from Kabul images is done to US credibility as a partner and the message it sends militias to stay the course and force the US to negotiate,” Wahab told Rudaw English.
Iraqi Kurds’ greatest fear is increased threats from ISIS and militia groups in the absence of the US. Iranian-backed militias have carried out at least 28 rocket and drone attacks on US interests in Iraq, including four in and around Erbil. And ISIS has stepped up its attacks in the disputed areas between Kurdish and Iraqi forces.
Rojava
In Rojava, the situation today is not like it was in 2019 when the US let Turkey attack, according to Aram Hanna, spokesperson for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are the main ally of the US-led global coalition against ISIS in Syria.
“Just to let you know, the conditions are different now, and you can’t compare our situation here with what’s happening in Afghanistan,” he said. “We have a lot of fields to work on with the Americans and the coalition.”
“We have a lot of projects – economic, reconstruction and military training – and we continue our operations against ISIS sleeping cells,” he added.
Kurdish forces are also holding more than 10,000 ISIS members in prisons and over 60,000 ISIS-affiliated people in al-Hol and Roj camps. The fighters and family members hail from around the world and are a serious global security threat that the SDF are keeping a lid on.
Hanna said the US has reassured them that they will not abandon the SDF, referring to a speech by Paul T. Calvert, commander of coalition forces, at the annual meeting of the SDF on August 1.
“There are three areas of success that I want to highlight in particular: the first is the security of IDP [internally displaced persons] camps and prisons, the second is raising the international awareness for the challenges faced by the people of northeast Syria, the third is enabling the continuing counter-ISIS fight,” Calvert said at the event.
He noted that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with other members of the coalition on July 28: “He and other leaders across the globe are behind you, and the coalition will remain committed to you as you take on the fight against ISIS every day.”
The general also said that the US will also help Rojava in non-security areas like resolving its water shortage and easing an economic crisis.
The SDF’s Hanna said: “We have our strength and power that will provide the protection for the area and our people. Don’t forget that we started our war against ISIS before the start of our relations with the Coalition.”
Wahab believes that the SDF's dependence on the US is less than that of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
Kurds have been in control of most of the northeast of Syria for some eight years, taking over in the year years of the popular uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. They have been subjected to Turkish military campaigns at least twice, losing key towns like Sari Kani, Gire Spi, and Afrin. Ankara continues to make threats against the Kurdish fighters who it alleges are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and pose a threat to its borders. The PKK is an armed group fighting for the increased rights of Kurds in Turkey. It is designated as a terrorist organization by Ankara.
Assad has said more than once that he wants full control of the entire country, including Rojava. Kurds have tried to open a dialogue with Damascus, but the regime has not committed to talks. There are no major serious tensions between them, but they remain rivals and have seen the occasional brief clash.
Stay or leave?
Colonel Wayne Marotto, spokesperson for the global coalition against ISIS, told Rudaw English via email that they are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government and their mission in Iraq and Syria has not changed since it began in 2014.
“The fight against Daesh [ISIS] is not yet completed and we're pleased to see that the Iraqi Security Forces have now moved into the lead, and where once the Coalition were fighting beside them on the ground, now the Iraqis are doing the fighting themselves,” said the colonel.
“The mission of the Coalition has shifted from a mission of direct combat to one of more support for them, advising, assisting, often at a very high level, and far away from combat on the ground. The Coalition continues to provide Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, logistics, advising and enabling partner forces at the operational and strategic levels. We also provide air power when requested,” he added.
Any US withdrawal in Iraq and Syria would be a feast for militia groups in Iraq and the Syrian regime, who oppose US presence in their respective countries, as well as for Turkey who condemns American support for Syria’s Kurds. Such a withdrawal could also give ISIS some breathing room.
Statements from US officials indicate that a drawdown is not happening in the near future. Blinken told members of the coalition in Rome last month that “we must renew coalition support for stabilization assistance across Iraq and Syria... to ensure that ISIS doesn’t have a resurgence in these countries.”
But surprises can happen. And Kurdish trust in Washington has been damaged. The US has a “major perception and credibility deficiency” with its partners in Iraq and Syria, said Wahab. “The key question for the US is how to reassure its allies and partners of its commitments?”
Baghdad and Erbil do not have better alternatives, he added, but this could be an opportunity to improve their self-sufficiency. “Iraqi and Kurdish leaders may complain about US reliability. Their search for more reliable patrons will be futile since alternatives to the US would be even less reliable. Iraqi and Kurdish leaders need to look inwardly, seize the opportunity before them to build a state that can provide protection and prosperity.”
When federal Iraqi forces fled ISIS' advance in 2014, the Kurdistan Region expanded its area of control as Peshmerga forces stepped in to secure areas like oil-rich Kirkuk. In 2017, the Region decided to hold an independence referendum, hoping that the US and other Western countries would protect them if Baghdad sought retaliation. Weeks after the referendum, however, Iraqi forces and pro-Iran militia groups attacked the Peshmerga, forcing them out of most of the disputed areas. The US, which had warned Kurds not to seek independence, did not intervene.
Two years later, when Turkey declared war against Kurdish forces in Rojava, the Donald Trump administration seemingly gave Ankara the green light and US troops abandoned their positions in the very north of Syria. This paved the way for Turkey to launch a military campaign against the Kurdish forces in October 2019 and seize control of a stretch of the border and the towns of Sari Kani (Ras al-Ain) and Gire Spi (Tal Abyad).
In both cases, the US was lambasted by Kurds on social media for betraying them. Some officials within the Trump administration also slammed the president for abandoning the Kurds.
With the passage of time, Kurds have continued to rely on and develop their relations with the US. However, America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s lightning offensive across the country and seizure of Kabul reminded Kurds of 2017 and 2019. Dramatic scenes of Afghans risking their lives at Kabul airport to escape the country sparked fears among many Kurds that Rojava or the Kurdistan Region could be the next Afghanistan.
Kurdistan Region
There are 2,500 US troops in Iraq, including in the Kurdistan Region, as part of the war against ISIS. US and Iraqi officials held the latest round of strategic talks in Washington in late July, capped off with a meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and US President Joe Biden, where they decided the US will withdraw all of its combat forces and formally shift to an advisory role.
“The delegations decided, following recent technical talks, that the security relationship will fully transition to a training, advising, assisting, and intelligence-sharing role, and that there will be no U.S. forces with a combat role in Iraq by December 31, 2021,” read a joint statement. It is not clear if this will mean a change in numbers of troops on the ground.
Peshmerga commander Sirwan Barzani told Rudaw English that the US presence is a federal issue and any agreement made by Baghdad will affect the whole country, including the Kurdistan Region.
“This issue is related to Iraq. The strategic agreement was signed. As far as we know, they [the US] have an agreement with Iraq and there is no discussion of withdrawal – only their mission has changed from combat forces to advisory forces. So far, only this exists and there is no withdrawal,” he said.
“We have heard from meetings that nothing will change and they will maintain their plan and continue supporting Iraqi forces and Peshmerga to observe Daesh terrorists. Their support and coordination will continue,” Barzani said.
The American assistance includes drone surveillance, he added.
Bilal Wahab, Wagner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes that the US is committed to staying the course in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, as well as Syria, and leading the fight against ISIS.
“The challenge set is qualitatively different, both in Iraq and Syria. Politically, moreover, Biden will not afford to venture into yet another withdrawal, which should reassure Iraqis and Syrians. The greater damage from Kabul images is done to US credibility as a partner and the message it sends militias to stay the course and force the US to negotiate,” Wahab told Rudaw English.
Iraqi Kurds’ greatest fear is increased threats from ISIS and militia groups in the absence of the US. Iranian-backed militias have carried out at least 28 rocket and drone attacks on US interests in Iraq, including four in and around Erbil. And ISIS has stepped up its attacks in the disputed areas between Kurdish and Iraqi forces.
Rojava
In Rojava, the situation today is not like it was in 2019 when the US let Turkey attack, according to Aram Hanna, spokesperson for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are the main ally of the US-led global coalition against ISIS in Syria.
“Just to let you know, the conditions are different now, and you can’t compare our situation here with what’s happening in Afghanistan,” he said. “We have a lot of fields to work on with the Americans and the coalition.”
“We have a lot of projects – economic, reconstruction and military training – and we continue our operations against ISIS sleeping cells,” he added.
Kurdish forces are also holding more than 10,000 ISIS members in prisons and over 60,000 ISIS-affiliated people in al-Hol and Roj camps. The fighters and family members hail from around the world and are a serious global security threat that the SDF are keeping a lid on.
Hanna said the US has reassured them that they will not abandon the SDF, referring to a speech by Paul T. Calvert, commander of coalition forces, at the annual meeting of the SDF on August 1.
“There are three areas of success that I want to highlight in particular: the first is the security of IDP [internally displaced persons] camps and prisons, the second is raising the international awareness for the challenges faced by the people of northeast Syria, the third is enabling the continuing counter-ISIS fight,” Calvert said at the event.
He noted that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with other members of the coalition on July 28: “He and other leaders across the globe are behind you, and the coalition will remain committed to you as you take on the fight against ISIS every day.”
The general also said that the US will also help Rojava in non-security areas like resolving its water shortage and easing an economic crisis.
The SDF’s Hanna said: “We have our strength and power that will provide the protection for the area and our people. Don’t forget that we started our war against ISIS before the start of our relations with the Coalition.”
Wahab believes that the SDF's dependence on the US is less than that of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
Kurds have been in control of most of the northeast of Syria for some eight years, taking over in the year years of the popular uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. They have been subjected to Turkish military campaigns at least twice, losing key towns like Sari Kani, Gire Spi, and Afrin. Ankara continues to make threats against the Kurdish fighters who it alleges are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and pose a threat to its borders. The PKK is an armed group fighting for the increased rights of Kurds in Turkey. It is designated as a terrorist organization by Ankara.
Assad has said more than once that he wants full control of the entire country, including Rojava. Kurds have tried to open a dialogue with Damascus, but the regime has not committed to talks. There are no major serious tensions between them, but they remain rivals and have seen the occasional brief clash.
Stay or leave?
Colonel Wayne Marotto, spokesperson for the global coalition against ISIS, told Rudaw English via email that they are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government and their mission in Iraq and Syria has not changed since it began in 2014.
“The fight against Daesh [ISIS] is not yet completed and we're pleased to see that the Iraqi Security Forces have now moved into the lead, and where once the Coalition were fighting beside them on the ground, now the Iraqis are doing the fighting themselves,” said the colonel.
“The mission of the Coalition has shifted from a mission of direct combat to one of more support for them, advising, assisting, often at a very high level, and far away from combat on the ground. The Coalition continues to provide Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, logistics, advising and enabling partner forces at the operational and strategic levels. We also provide air power when requested,” he added.
Any US withdrawal in Iraq and Syria would be a feast for militia groups in Iraq and the Syrian regime, who oppose US presence in their respective countries, as well as for Turkey who condemns American support for Syria’s Kurds. Such a withdrawal could also give ISIS some breathing room.
Statements from US officials indicate that a drawdown is not happening in the near future. Blinken told members of the coalition in Rome last month that “we must renew coalition support for stabilization assistance across Iraq and Syria... to ensure that ISIS doesn’t have a resurgence in these countries.”
But surprises can happen. And Kurdish trust in Washington has been damaged. The US has a “major perception and credibility deficiency” with its partners in Iraq and Syria, said Wahab. “The key question for the US is how to reassure its allies and partners of its commitments?”
Baghdad and Erbil do not have better alternatives, he added, but this could be an opportunity to improve their self-sufficiency. “Iraqi and Kurdish leaders may complain about US reliability. Their search for more reliable patrons will be futile since alternatives to the US would be even less reliable. Iraqi and Kurdish leaders need to look inwardly, seize the opportunity before them to build a state that can provide protection and prosperity.”
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