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Analysis
Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar and Iraqi President Barham Salih in Baghdad. Date: January 18, 2021. Photo: Turkish defense ministry
Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar’s unique visit to Iraq and the Kurdistan Region this week was dominated by the subject of the fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). A number of his comments to the media, hinting at a rare coordination between Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil against the PKK, have some wondering if a joint military operation against the group inside Iraq is expected soon.
Top Turkish officials, especially those in the military, have rarely in the past visited Baghdad and Erbil, and when they did the issue of the PKK has always been on the top of their agendas. Akar was making preparations for a visit in August 2020, but the death of two Iraqi border guards in a Turkish drone strike in Duhok province early on in the month angered Baghdad, and the visit was cancelled.
Ankara announced fresh air and ground offensive against the PKK - which it considers a terrorist group - in the Kurdistan Region in mid-June. Military engagements generally reduce during the winter months due to weather conditions, but the air offensive nonetheless has continued. The military action has been widely condemned by Baghdad.
Akar waited for a few months for the waters to settle. Iraqi prime minister Mustafa Kadhimi’s delayed visit to Ankara in mid-December may have encouraged the minister to pursue his long-awaited trip. On Monday, he visited Baghdad to meet with Iraqi officials. He left the Iraqi capital for Erbil in the evening, and met with Kurdish officials the next day.
Statements made to Turkish state media suggest that Akar is eyeing the northern Iraqi town of Shingal (Sinjar) in the continuation with Turkey's operations, albeit with new partners.
“We also raised the issue of Shingal in our meetings and received some information. Currently, we have information that the terrorists have not left Shingal completely,” Akar told Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency (AA) on Tuesday.
He added that Baghdad officials told him that “the terrorists” will be removed from Shingal soon. “We told them that we are ready to provide any sort of help and support if they ask.”
The PKK fought the Islamic State (ISIS) in Shingal in 2014 and groups affiliated with it, namely the Shingal Resistance Units (YBS), still operate in the area. Erbil and Baghdad reached an administrative and security deal to “normalize” the situation in Shingal late 2020 by removing all armed groups there and replacing them with federal police. YBS has reportedly withdrawn to Mount Shingal mountain and its surrounding areas.
Turkey has targeted YBS several times in Shingal, killing the group’s members.
No Iraqi or Kurdish official spoke of any joint action or exchange of information with Turkey, but they acknowledged that security was among the topics discussed.
The Kurdistan Region’s President Nechirvan Barzani told Akar that “Iraqi and Kurdistan Region’s land should not be used as a safe haven to threaten Turkey.”
However, Akar stated to AA that “the fight against the terrorist organization of the PKK and security issue being on top, we exchanged views on issues between Turkey and Iraq.”
“We were pleased to see that our views and approaches were very close to each other. We have agreed on many issues. We will continue our work to take the necessary measures in the coming days in order to work on these issues for the security of Iraq and Turkey,” he added.
Dr. Osman Ali is the director of the Erbil-based Task Center for Strategic Studies. He believes that Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil are planning a joint operation against PKK-affiliated groups in Shingal.
“The main objective [of the visit] is clear - boosting their ongoing operations against the PKK in northern Iraq. However, it could also be a result of Kadhimi’s visit to Ankara to bolster their relations and carry out a joint operation [against the PKK] in Shingal,” the analyst told Rudaw English.
He claims that none of the governments can carry out a successful operation to clear out the PKK on their own, so they have to do it jointly.
“I believe they want to conduct an extensive operation in Shingal,” he said.
“Obviously, the three sides want to do this for their own interests. If it [an operation] was planned with Iraqi government, the defense minister would return to Ankara after visiting Baghdad …,”he added. It is unclear whether Hulusi returned to the Turkish capital after his visit to Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
Ali believes the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi) and Iran could create obstacles for such an offensive, claiming the group has links to the PKK.
The PMF has not withdrawn from Shingal, despite some of its leaders having verbally agreed to do so. Parts of the paramilitary network have spoken against the presence of Turkish forces in Iraq and even threatened to attack them. They appear to be on good terms with the PKK-affiliated groups operating in Shingal.
Asked about a potential joint operation, Akar told AA that it was too early to discuss, but said they would continue their “mutual exchange of information and form suitable mechanisms to exchange information.”
“We will continue our work night and day in order to increase the effectiveness of our coordination,” he added.
The PKK has accused the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of sharing intelligence with Turkey regarding the group’s positions and movements in the autonomous region. The KDP has denied this, but expressed their opposition to the presence of PKK fighters in the Kurdistan Region.
Tensions between the PKK and KDP renewed last year, with clashes even turning deadly in Duhok over the control of border hills in the province. They also clashed on the Syrian border. However, the tensions have seemingly reduced in recent weeks.
Ankara has asked the KRG several times to join forces against the PKK, but the Kurdish government has publicly refused this. Both Erbil’s top officials and PKK commanders have strongly spoken against any form of intra-Kurdish fighting.
Akar praised Erbil and Baghdad for their alleged willingness to exchange information on the PKK.
“In this regard, I would like to emphasize that the will of the [Kurdistan] Regional Government is very valuable, meaningful and respectable,” said the minister.
Ilhami Isik is a Turkey-based Kurdish writer and activist, who has acted as a mediator between the PKK and Ankara in the past. He sees other, less obvious, reasons for Akar’s visit.
“I do not think the defense minister Akar’s visit is related to military operations against the PKK, although the operations continue,” he told Rudaw English.
He believes that Turkey wants to assert its place in Iraq, with US influence weakening due to opposition from Shiite groups. “As a powerful country, Turkey wants to have a presence there.”
Isik said that the fact that a top military official like Akar was photographed with the Kurdistan flag in Erbil is “a positive and important” development to boost Erbil-Ankara relations.
However, Akar was criticized at home for appearing with the Kurdish flag- which is unofficially banned in Turkey.
Top Turkish officials, especially those in the military, have rarely in the past visited Baghdad and Erbil, and when they did the issue of the PKK has always been on the top of their agendas. Akar was making preparations for a visit in August 2020, but the death of two Iraqi border guards in a Turkish drone strike in Duhok province early on in the month angered Baghdad, and the visit was cancelled.
Ankara announced fresh air and ground offensive against the PKK - which it considers a terrorist group - in the Kurdistan Region in mid-June. Military engagements generally reduce during the winter months due to weather conditions, but the air offensive nonetheless has continued. The military action has been widely condemned by Baghdad.
Akar waited for a few months for the waters to settle. Iraqi prime minister Mustafa Kadhimi’s delayed visit to Ankara in mid-December may have encouraged the minister to pursue his long-awaited trip. On Monday, he visited Baghdad to meet with Iraqi officials. He left the Iraqi capital for Erbil in the evening, and met with Kurdish officials the next day.
Statements made to Turkish state media suggest that Akar is eyeing the northern Iraqi town of Shingal (Sinjar) in the continuation with Turkey's operations, albeit with new partners.
“We also raised the issue of Shingal in our meetings and received some information. Currently, we have information that the terrorists have not left Shingal completely,” Akar told Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency (AA) on Tuesday.
He added that Baghdad officials told him that “the terrorists” will be removed from Shingal soon. “We told them that we are ready to provide any sort of help and support if they ask.”
The PKK fought the Islamic State (ISIS) in Shingal in 2014 and groups affiliated with it, namely the Shingal Resistance Units (YBS), still operate in the area. Erbil and Baghdad reached an administrative and security deal to “normalize” the situation in Shingal late 2020 by removing all armed groups there and replacing them with federal police. YBS has reportedly withdrawn to Mount Shingal mountain and its surrounding areas.
Turkey has targeted YBS several times in Shingal, killing the group’s members.
No Iraqi or Kurdish official spoke of any joint action or exchange of information with Turkey, but they acknowledged that security was among the topics discussed.
The Kurdistan Region’s President Nechirvan Barzani told Akar that “Iraqi and Kurdistan Region’s land should not be used as a safe haven to threaten Turkey.”
However, Akar stated to AA that “the fight against the terrorist organization of the PKK and security issue being on top, we exchanged views on issues between Turkey and Iraq.”
“We were pleased to see that our views and approaches were very close to each other. We have agreed on many issues. We will continue our work to take the necessary measures in the coming days in order to work on these issues for the security of Iraq and Turkey,” he added.
Dr. Osman Ali is the director of the Erbil-based Task Center for Strategic Studies. He believes that Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil are planning a joint operation against PKK-affiliated groups in Shingal.
“The main objective [of the visit] is clear - boosting their ongoing operations against the PKK in northern Iraq. However, it could also be a result of Kadhimi’s visit to Ankara to bolster their relations and carry out a joint operation [against the PKK] in Shingal,” the analyst told Rudaw English.
He claims that none of the governments can carry out a successful operation to clear out the PKK on their own, so they have to do it jointly.
“I believe they want to conduct an extensive operation in Shingal,” he said.
“Obviously, the three sides want to do this for their own interests. If it [an operation] was planned with Iraqi government, the defense minister would return to Ankara after visiting Baghdad …,”he added. It is unclear whether Hulusi returned to the Turkish capital after his visit to Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
Ali believes the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi) and Iran could create obstacles for such an offensive, claiming the group has links to the PKK.
The PMF has not withdrawn from Shingal, despite some of its leaders having verbally agreed to do so. Parts of the paramilitary network have spoken against the presence of Turkish forces in Iraq and even threatened to attack them. They appear to be on good terms with the PKK-affiliated groups operating in Shingal.
Asked about a potential joint operation, Akar told AA that it was too early to discuss, but said they would continue their “mutual exchange of information and form suitable mechanisms to exchange information.”
“We will continue our work night and day in order to increase the effectiveness of our coordination,” he added.
The PKK has accused the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of sharing intelligence with Turkey regarding the group’s positions and movements in the autonomous region. The KDP has denied this, but expressed their opposition to the presence of PKK fighters in the Kurdistan Region.
Tensions between the PKK and KDP renewed last year, with clashes even turning deadly in Duhok over the control of border hills in the province. They also clashed on the Syrian border. However, the tensions have seemingly reduced in recent weeks.
Ankara has asked the KRG several times to join forces against the PKK, but the Kurdish government has publicly refused this. Both Erbil’s top officials and PKK commanders have strongly spoken against any form of intra-Kurdish fighting.
Akar praised Erbil and Baghdad for their alleged willingness to exchange information on the PKK.
“In this regard, I would like to emphasize that the will of the [Kurdistan] Regional Government is very valuable, meaningful and respectable,” said the minister.
Ilhami Isik is a Turkey-based Kurdish writer and activist, who has acted as a mediator between the PKK and Ankara in the past. He sees other, less obvious, reasons for Akar’s visit.
“I do not think the defense minister Akar’s visit is related to military operations against the PKK, although the operations continue,” he told Rudaw English.
He believes that Turkey wants to assert its place in Iraq, with US influence weakening due to opposition from Shiite groups. “As a powerful country, Turkey wants to have a presence there.”
Isik said that the fact that a top military official like Akar was photographed with the Kurdistan flag in Erbil is “a positive and important” development to boost Erbil-Ankara relations.
However, Akar was criticized at home for appearing with the Kurdish flag- which is unofficially banned in Turkey.
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