Who will form Iraq’s next government?
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Preliminary results in Iraq’s October 10 election, parallel to all expectations, saw Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s party win by a large margin with 72 seats. However they will still need to make deals with other parties in order to appoint a prime minister and form the government.
The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) on Saturday announced updated preliminary results after completing manual counting. The results give a clear image of who won and who lost, but who will form the next government remains unclear as several parties will need to come to an agreement and election winners could be left out of the government.
Sadr was the first person to claim victory a day after the vote. On Thursday, he formed a negotiating committee to hold talks with other parties in order to form a government. In a statement on Sunday, Sadr said they will work on building coalitions that are “national” and not “sectarian” in order to form a “serving government that will protect the homeland and its security, sovereignty, and the dignity of its people.”
Sadr appears to be looking to form a mixed government, gathering the strongest parties of Shiites, Kurds, and Sunnis.
He has also set out guidelines for the United States on how to deal with his government, respecting Iraq’s sovereignty and independence.
Kurds in the government
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) achieved a massive victory, tying for third place with 33 seats and once again taking the position of largest Kurdish party in the Iraqi parliament, according to preliminary results and are believed to be one of the parties the Sadrists want to work with. The KDP, however, said they have not made any deals yet.
“So far there are no official agreements on such matter. Mr. Hoshyar Zebari has been appointed as the negotiator for the KDP. There have been understandings before the elections, but the KDP does not do agreements with any side against another,” Showan Mohammed, head of the KDP office in Baghdad, told Rudaw English on Saturday.
“Resolving problems as per the constitution is the defining factor for how close we get to any political party,” he added.
The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which has 16 seats based on preliminary results, said their party will take the Iraqi presidency, a position they have held since the US invasion of Iraq.
PUK co-chair Bafel Talabani on election day told media that they look to keep the presidency and their candidate is Barham Salih, who will be serving a second term if he is approved.
The New Generation movement, whose success was one of the shocks of the election, secured nine seats. The party’s head Shaswar Abdulwahid on Tuesday held a press conference where he said his party supports Kurdish unity in Baghdad if it is for the sake of securing the rights of Kurds, but they are not looking for personal benefits and ministries.
Sunnis in the government
The Taqadum party led by parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi secured 37 seats, making it the largest Sunni bloc and likely to take the Sunni share of parliamentary speaker.
There have been rumours that Halbousi may pair up with Sadr, but the party on Saturday denied having made any agreements or deals with the Sadrists.
“We don't have red lines for understanding and dialogue with any bloc,” the party spokesperson Yahia Ghazi al-Mohammedi told Saudi-owned al-Hadath TV on Saturday.
“We can't talk about a final coalition until the election results are approved,” he said, adding that Halbousi will have an important role in forming the next government.
Other parties
Sadr could face a challenge from other Shiite parties, if they are able to group together. Nouri al-Maliki could be Sadr’s biggest competition.
He once led the Iraqi parliament with over 90 seats, but in 2018 suffered a defeat after a split with Haider al-Abadi and gained only 25 seats. This year, he bounced back with 33 seats.
Coming in third alongside the KDP, Maliki also aims to form the government. “We call upon all parties, movements and political forces to cooperate and work together in order to fortify a national unity, strengthen security and stability, deal responsibly with events and their developments, and create the appropriate atmosphere to move to confront the constitutional requirements in forming a strong government with a confident, capable leadership that serves the people and is at the level of their ambitions in providing services and decent living opportunities, and achieve security and full sovereignty,” read a statement from him on Friday.
He needs to overcome his own history if he is to work with other parties, however. Maliki is seen in many corners as the root of Iraq’s current problems that began during his reign as prime minister between 2006 and 2014.
The Fatih Alliance, led by Hadi al-Amiri of the Badr Organization and supported by a range of pro-Iran militia groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), was the second largest bloc in the outgoing parliament with 48 seats. According to preliminary results, it won just 15 seats, but they are fighting to maintain their influence and have made allegations of electoral fraud.
“The Resistance cannot tolerate malicious projects that seek to integrate or abolish the PMF, which only serve the American occupation,” a group of Iraqi militias opposed to US presence in Iraq and calling themselves the Iraqi Resistance, said in a statement on Tuesday.
An agreement between Sadr, KDP, and Halbousi would give them 142 seats of the parliament’s 329, which leaves room for a challenger, but the challenge is uniting parties, some of which have no common ground.
With threats of protests from parties upset with the election results, there have already been calls for a smooth government formation process and transition of power.
“We call on all parties to adopt a responsible national stance that takes into account the supreme interest of the country, to remain calm, to let the language of reason prevail, and to avoid any escalation that might affect societal peace and security,” read a joint statement from President Barham Salih and the head of the Supreme Judicial Council Fayaq Zidan on Friday.
The US has also called for a peaceful transition. “Once the final results are certified, we hope the new Council of Representatives members will form a government that reflects the will of the Iraqi people, in which can work to address Iraq’s governance, security and economic challenges,” read a statement shared by both the White House Press Secretary and the spokesperson for the Secretary of State on Tuesday.
Additional reporting by Karwan Faidhi Dri