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Analysis
A US F-35A fighter jet prepares to land at Chungju Air Base in Chungju, South Korea, March 29, 2019. File photo: Kang Jong-min / Newsis / AP
Turkey’s purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile system has seen it removed from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and an offer to buy the US MIM-104 Patriot air defence system cancelled. While Ankara believes it can weather the diplomatic storm resulting from the purchase, it may soon find it has far fewer options when it looks to buy new jet fighters and air defense systems.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still believes, despite the S-400 dispute, that Turkey can convince the US to sell it Patriot missiles, saying he discussed the matter in a phone call with US President Donald Trump.
“But I said we have to see conditions that at least match up to the S-400s,” Erdogan told Reuters on September 13.
“We can buy a certain amount, a certain package of Patriots, as soon as there are these conditions of joint production and loans and so on, we can buy Patriots.”
The US previously offered to sell Turkey Patriots if it agreed to scrap the S-400 deal with Russia. That offer did not reportedly include any transfer of the system’s technology or a loan agreement.
Ankara refused to ditch the S-400, saying it was open to the idea of buying Patriots in addition to the Russian missile system – but not instead.
In August, the Patriot offer was automatically cancelled after Turkey began taking delivery of the S-400. Erdogan bringing up the prospect of a Patriot sale now once again demonstrates he believes his relationship with Trump can bring about major policy changes in Washington.
He has some justification for this belief. The Trump administration is obligated under the Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) to place sanctions on Ankara for its purchase of the S-400. To date, it has not done so and appears highly reluctant.
Trump has said it is “not fair” that the US can no longer sell Turkey F-35s because of its S-400 purchase.
The Pentagon, on the other hand, has continually stressed that the fifth-generation warplane cannot operate alongside the S-400 because the Russian system could potentially expose sensitive information about its stealth capabilities.
Turkey is also being removed from the F-35 production program, which will result in Turkey losing its lucrative role in manufacturing hundreds of parts for the jet.
Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program may even have ramifications for its navy.
Aside from seeking to buy 100 F-35As for its air force Turkey also contemplated buying up to 20 F-35Bs for its navy. Turkey is building an amphibious warship called the TCG Anadolu and wants fighter jets that can operate off its short flight deck. The F-35B, with its vertical/short takeoff and landing ability, could have been ideal for this.
However, with Turkey’s removal from the program, the only other option it has is the much older and less sophisticated AV-8B Harrier jump jet, all of which are now in the possession of the United States Marine Corps. If Turkey cannot purchase Harriers, the only aircraft the Anadolu will carry on her deck will be helicopters.
Trump was not the only one to regret seeing Turkey being booted out of the F-35 program and facing the prospect of sanctions over the S-400.
Senator Lindsey Graham suggested Washington could avoid imposing sanctions on Turkey if it agrees not to activate its new Russian system.
“I’m in the camp of, if they don’t activate the S-400, the sanctions don’t have to be applied,” he said in July. “My hope is to persuade Turkey not to active [sic] the system because it’s so disruptive to the relationship.”
“My pitch to Turkey was, let’s stand down on the S-400, let’s start free trade agreement negotiations.”
Graham was seemingly suggesting that if the S-400s remain in storage in Turkey, preferably unassembled, then the Trump administration might be able to avoid sanctions and the ensuing fallout they would cause for already strained US-Turkey relations.
US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, on the other hand, did not mince words when he laid down the conditions under which Turkey could be readmitted into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.
“They have to, again, get rid of the S-400 program and completely out of the country [before] we could consider that,” he said.
“It’s either the F-35 or the S-400,” he added. “It’s not both. It’s not park one in the garage and roll the other one out. It’s one or the other. So we are where we are, and it’s regrettable.”
Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 leaves it looking elsewhere for a fifth-generation fighter to gradually replace its fleet of F-16s. During a recent visit to Russia, Erdogan appeared to flirt with the idea of buying either Sukhoi Su-57s or Su-35s.
There are only about a dozen flyable prototypes of the Su-57 presently in existence and there are many reasons to believe the aircraft will not be fully operational for about another decade or so, even if Turkey invests hard cash in the project.
The Su-35, while certainly formidable and highly maneuverable, is not a fifth-generation jet.
If Turkey does decide to buy a fleet of Su-35s in the near future it will limit its options for buying other jet fighters from NATO alliance members, such as the Eurofighter Typhoon or any future warplane European members of NATO build in the foreseeable future.
Kerim Has, a Moscow-based Russian and Turkish affairs analyst, seriously doubts that Turkey can even remain a NATO member if it does decide to buy a fleet of Russian warplanes.
“It would not only be meaningless but detrimental for NATO to have such an ally,” Has told Rudaw English.
“It would also mean a 180-degree paradigm shift in Turkey’s own security and threat perceptions as well as its historical geopolitical orientation,” he said. “And not just since 1952 when Turkey joined NATO, but since its two-century Westernization process began.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still believes, despite the S-400 dispute, that Turkey can convince the US to sell it Patriot missiles, saying he discussed the matter in a phone call with US President Donald Trump.
“But I said we have to see conditions that at least match up to the S-400s,” Erdogan told Reuters on September 13.
“We can buy a certain amount, a certain package of Patriots, as soon as there are these conditions of joint production and loans and so on, we can buy Patriots.”
The US previously offered to sell Turkey Patriots if it agreed to scrap the S-400 deal with Russia. That offer did not reportedly include any transfer of the system’s technology or a loan agreement.
Ankara refused to ditch the S-400, saying it was open to the idea of buying Patriots in addition to the Russian missile system – but not instead.
In August, the Patriot offer was automatically cancelled after Turkey began taking delivery of the S-400. Erdogan bringing up the prospect of a Patriot sale now once again demonstrates he believes his relationship with Trump can bring about major policy changes in Washington.
He has some justification for this belief. The Trump administration is obligated under the Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) to place sanctions on Ankara for its purchase of the S-400. To date, it has not done so and appears highly reluctant.
Trump has said it is “not fair” that the US can no longer sell Turkey F-35s because of its S-400 purchase.
The Pentagon, on the other hand, has continually stressed that the fifth-generation warplane cannot operate alongside the S-400 because the Russian system could potentially expose sensitive information about its stealth capabilities.
Turkey is also being removed from the F-35 production program, which will result in Turkey losing its lucrative role in manufacturing hundreds of parts for the jet.
Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program may even have ramifications for its navy.
Aside from seeking to buy 100 F-35As for its air force Turkey also contemplated buying up to 20 F-35Bs for its navy. Turkey is building an amphibious warship called the TCG Anadolu and wants fighter jets that can operate off its short flight deck. The F-35B, with its vertical/short takeoff and landing ability, could have been ideal for this.
However, with Turkey’s removal from the program, the only other option it has is the much older and less sophisticated AV-8B Harrier jump jet, all of which are now in the possession of the United States Marine Corps. If Turkey cannot purchase Harriers, the only aircraft the Anadolu will carry on her deck will be helicopters.
Trump was not the only one to regret seeing Turkey being booted out of the F-35 program and facing the prospect of sanctions over the S-400.
Senator Lindsey Graham suggested Washington could avoid imposing sanctions on Turkey if it agrees not to activate its new Russian system.
“I’m in the camp of, if they don’t activate the S-400, the sanctions don’t have to be applied,” he said in July. “My hope is to persuade Turkey not to active [sic] the system because it’s so disruptive to the relationship.”
“My pitch to Turkey was, let’s stand down on the S-400, let’s start free trade agreement negotiations.”
Graham was seemingly suggesting that if the S-400s remain in storage in Turkey, preferably unassembled, then the Trump administration might be able to avoid sanctions and the ensuing fallout they would cause for already strained US-Turkey relations.
US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, on the other hand, did not mince words when he laid down the conditions under which Turkey could be readmitted into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.
“They have to, again, get rid of the S-400 program and completely out of the country [before] we could consider that,” he said.
“It’s either the F-35 or the S-400,” he added. “It’s not both. It’s not park one in the garage and roll the other one out. It’s one or the other. So we are where we are, and it’s regrettable.”
Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 leaves it looking elsewhere for a fifth-generation fighter to gradually replace its fleet of F-16s. During a recent visit to Russia, Erdogan appeared to flirt with the idea of buying either Sukhoi Su-57s or Su-35s.
There are only about a dozen flyable prototypes of the Su-57 presently in existence and there are many reasons to believe the aircraft will not be fully operational for about another decade or so, even if Turkey invests hard cash in the project.
The Su-35, while certainly formidable and highly maneuverable, is not a fifth-generation jet.
If Turkey does decide to buy a fleet of Su-35s in the near future it will limit its options for buying other jet fighters from NATO alliance members, such as the Eurofighter Typhoon or any future warplane European members of NATO build in the foreseeable future.
Kerim Has, a Moscow-based Russian and Turkish affairs analyst, seriously doubts that Turkey can even remain a NATO member if it does decide to buy a fleet of Russian warplanes.
“It would not only be meaningless but detrimental for NATO to have such an ally,” Has told Rudaw English.
“It would also mean a 180-degree paradigm shift in Turkey’s own security and threat perceptions as well as its historical geopolitical orientation,” he said. “And not just since 1952 when Turkey joined NATO, but since its two-century Westernization process began.”
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